6 replies to this topic

[diogenes227]

Many points in the article have probably been said before in bits and pieces, but Vox has brought much of what can be said about Covid-19 in one place, from what it is to what is means for everyone in the world.

 

From the link - 12 Things Everyone Needs To Know About The Coronavirus Pandemic:

 

Before December 2019, SARS-CoV-2 — the virus that causes the Covid-19 illness — was unknown to science. “A pneumonia of unknown cause” was first reported to the World Health Organization on December 31, after a slew of cases appeared in Wuhan, China. Since then, the virus has been detected in more than a million people worldwide, and killed tens of thousands.

 

This is a pandemic, a global crisis and tragedy on a scale that’s hard to fathom.

 

There are a lot of new things for the public to learn — about the virus, controlling its spread, social distancing, treating the sick, and how our governments should react to this chaotic situation. It’s like we’ve all been dropped in to study for a test in a class that no one signed up for. It’s confusing and hard to process.

 

Here, we’ve tried to distill it into 12 key aspects of this crisis that everyone should understand. That said, we don’t cover everything, and there’s still a lot of uncertainty about some of the most important things on the list. (If you think you have Covid-19, and are curious about what that means for you, read this explainer. If you’re most confused about the financial crisis the virus is causing, read this one.) This guide focuses mostly on the properties of the virus, and the implications for public health.

 

In the few months since this virus emerged, we’ve learned an immense amount about it. Scientists have decoded its genetics and whom it’s more likely to kill, and have started working on vaccines that could immunize humans to it. Still, its newness means that a lot of the figures presented in this article are estimates and subject to change as scientists learn more. So keep that in mind, too.

 

(CLICK ANYWHERE ON THE GRAPHIC FOR THE ARTICLE)

 

[K Wave]

Here we go again...dealing with alarmists who cant do simple frigging math.

 

The flu hospitalizaions for example in 2017-2018 season was an estimated 808,129

Total cases estimated at 44,802,629

So +/- 2% hospitalization rate.

 

VOX  is using a hospitalization rate against TESTED & CONFIRMED cases, which this point are only the very sickest people for the most part, as they are generally not testing less severe cases at this point.

There are realistically 100x more people that have been infected. A better estimate of total infections will be available when widespread antibody testing is done.

But based upon the apparent infectiousness of this thing, and how many people have no or very mild symptoms, 100x may turn out to be low.

 

So once we get a handle on total estimated infections, COVID hospitalizations as a percentage to total estimated infections may actually come in below the flu.

But, I can guarantee you that, even if the total infections are only 50x confirmed cases, the hospitalization rate is nowhere near 19% based upon total infections.

 

Not entirely sure where VOX got their 19% number, but NY State (by far the hardest hit in USA to date) publishes their numbers every day.

https://www.syracuse...coronavirus-ny/

 

Thus far, NY State has reported 113,704 cases tested positive.

They have had a total of 15,905 hospitalizations to-date due to, I am assuming, the tested and confirmed cases. (note: the title "Current" Hospitalizations is entirely misleading, as when when you download the actual data, you quickly find out that is actually a cumulative admissions number, and not how many are currently in the hospital.)

That equates to a hospitalization rate of 14% of the tested and confirmed.

Add in all the infections never tested and you are waaayyyy below that.

 

And good news is, once you subtract the rapidly rising discharge numbers from the total hospital admissions, looks like only a little over 5400 still in the hospital in NY State due to confirmed COVID at this point, after peaking around 5900 a few days ago, according the official numbers.

Hopefully that number keeps dropping over the coming days, and New York turns the corner in the number that actually matters, how many that are actually dying from it.

Edited by K Wave, 04 April 2020 - 08:38 PM.

[tommyt]

We either aren't testing everyone, cant test enough cause there are not test kits, or are not testing unless advanced symptoms. So we dont know the real numbers. They are much higher than anyone is reporting. In countries that test or tested early and often, they are having much better results and reporting of numbers. This story is hardly finished.

[Ticker]

http://m.koreaherald...=20200405000150

People are either having persistent infections that relapse after recovery or getting reinfected in Korea. The story is developing.

[diogenes227]

Why The Coronavirus Rates Are Different From Place to Place

[gm_general]

My father's flu was the Spanish flu, he was 2 at the time. The death rate in the max estimate was 50 million, 10% of the 500 million who caught it. So not even close yet.

[colion]

As of today, Johns Hopkins summarized the number of infections and deaths due to COVID-19 and Flu.  The winner is Flu by a long shot.  To be sure, we are not done with COVID-19 this season but there are signs that is is peaking despite the absence of a vaccine, proven treatments and some level of immunity in the population.  Unless this changes it seems to me that flu is more worrisome.  

 

https://www.hopkinsm...2019-vs-the-flu

 

Comparing COVID-19 and Flu raises the question whether shelter-in-place for COVID-19 is justified which is discussed by Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, Stanford.

 

https://www.youtube....eature=youtu.be