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Looking for a swing leg up...


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#1 diogenes227

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Posted 05 April 2020 - 07:22 PM

From the link:

 

 

The NYMO, despite the current bearish pattern, just did something that is normal in bullish times and is at least a glimmer for a another leg up. It has dipped to the zero line three weeks (15 trading days) from its low. Three to four weeks into is normal for a twelve to fourteen week McClellan Oscillator cycle; it happens all the time in bull markets. Could this be a hint this is the week to try for more upside? A bit of relief, a surge of hope for the bulls? Maybe.

 

 

I’ve said before any time 40 or more of those stocks on the nifty-50-stock list are on sells that is either the bottom of a swing or the beginning of the bottom of the swing.

 

…like the glimmer on the NYMO, there is a glimmer here also. The stocks on sells has been under forty for three days (there is no four days on this chart), and for the past two of those days it’s been slowing slogging its way higher.

 

Monday will be important but I’m going guess… The market is going to pop and take a leg up for at least a couple days this week.

 

For more discussion and two charts:

 

MARKET TIMING THE NEXT LEG UP?


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#2 salam

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Posted 05 April 2020 - 09:54 PM

NYMO yes, but the Vix dropping to below 50 on Friday with a down market was a big tell, why I dumped my shorts into the close.

Vix should drop further to the 35/37 area this week. 
 

a gap and go Monday creates a delicious Island reversal too.

 

might even get a pop above 2650.

 

OPEC delayed meeting Monday to Thursday. A midweek/Thursday  short entry before the weekly payrolls is not an unreasonable plan. 

Crude should attempt a test of $30-35 area, but remains a no brainier short.


Edited by salam, 05 April 2020 - 09:56 PM.

I'm not sure what my future holds... But I know who holds it.

#3 diogenes227

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Posted 06 April 2020 - 03:40 PM

"Looking for a swing leg up" - DAY TRADE RESULT

 


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#4 diogenes227

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Posted 07 April 2020 - 03:46 PM

From the link:

 

The NYMO, despite the current bearish pattern, just did something that is normal in bullish times and is at least a glimmer for a another leg up. It has dipped to the zero line three weeks (15 trading days) from its low. Three to four weeks into is normal for a twelve to fourteen week McClellan Oscillator cycle; it happens all the time in bull markets. Could this be a hint this is the week to try for more upside? A bit of relief, a surge of hope for the bulls? Maybe.

 

 

I’ve said before any time 40 or more of those stocks on the nifty-50-stock list are on sells that is either the bottom of a swing or the beginning of the bottom of the swing.

 

…like the glimmer on the NYMO, there is a glimmer here also. The stocks on sells has been under forty for three days (there is no four days on this chart), and for the past two of those days it’s been slowing slogging its way higher.

 

Monday will be important but I’m going guess… The market is going to pop and take a leg up for at least a couple days this week.

 

For more discussion and two charts:

 

MARKET TIMING THE NEXT LEG UP?

 

"Monday will be important but I’m going guess… The market is going to pop and take a leg up for at least a couple days this week."

 

Got the pop. Got the couple of days up. Anyone sell the open today?

 

And the bulls even made a game try mid-day to bring it back before the bear gave a little push with his paw.  Rather nerve-racking for my SPY day trade, but all's-well-that-ends-well ended up 33% in the at-the-money 274 put.

 

 

And hmm.... That big black thing on the daily chart does not...well, that does not look good. Whoever mentioned that volume did not confirm yesterday's blast gets the kudos, me thinks, for sorta alerting today's slip and slide.

 

But the NYMO and the NYSI continue to rise so there is still some hope for the bulls. 

 

 

 

 


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#5 kaiser soze

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Posted 07 April 2020 - 06:03 PM

I did better than sell the open. Sold the QQQs 5 min after the open, covered close to the bottom of the morning swoon and reshorted the Spooz at nearly exactly the noon top, covered roughly an hour before the close.  

 

Price action of ADBE, NFLX, ATVI early in the morning was a major tell.

 

I too can see it go both ways tomorrow and subsequent trading days.  Ongoing ABC Up in Wave 2/4 can take SPX to 2800 and even to 2900.  At the same time, the type of institutional selling we witnessed today and the type of stocks that were sold, suggest an eventual move to new lows. The only question is whether new lows happen fairly soon or later this summer. Hence, mostly flat for tomorrow except for a small number of XLE and XLF puts bought on a hunch.



#6 diogenes227

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Posted 07 April 2020 - 08:01 PM

I did better than sell the open. Sold the QQQs 5 min after the open, covered close to the bottom of the morning swoon and reshorted the Spooz at nearly exactly the noon top, covered roughly an hour before the close.  

 

Price action of ADBE, NFLX, ATVI early in the morning was a major tell.

 

I too can see it go both ways tomorrow and subsequent trading days.  Ongoing ABC Up in Wave 2/4 can take SPX to 2800 and even to 2900.  At the same time, the type of institutional selling we witnessed today and the type of stocks that were sold, suggest an eventual move to new lows. The only question is whether new lows happen fairly soon or later this summer. Hence, mostly flat for tomorrow except for a small number of XLE and XLF puts bought on a hunch.

Well done.

 

What was the tell on those three stocks - that they drop below their opens immediately?


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#7 kaiser soze

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Posted 07 April 2020 - 08:29 PM

 

 

Well done.

 

Thanks.  

 

 

 

What was the tell on those three stocks - that they drop below their opens immediately?

 

Proprietary- based on price action and volume in 10 select stocks. Frankly, the QQQ short I took at the open was based on the immediate drop in my basket + other technical factors + a gut instinct (there's not that much analysis you can do in 5 min). However, I had crystal clear signals for the noon top. SPY was the safer short vehicle because of the QQQ leads SPY dynamic. 



#8 kaiser soze

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Posted 07 April 2020 - 10:32 PM

Did some more analysis this evening. The higher probability outcome for the next several trading sessions appears to be DOWN although there will be trading opportunities for both trend shorts and counter-trend longs. The high quality names everyone piled into during the March decline, look most vulnerable.