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DEJA VU, again: Setting up BULLS for another smash down.


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 05 April 2020 - 09:03 PM

SPX 2650 may be reached on this bear market rally but then it's back down again. 

 

There is a window of opportunity of a few days that can lure in many dip buyers but then it is back down gain. 

 

FLAT on both LONG and RISK Portfolios

 

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 05 April 2020 - 09:13 PM

First and foremost, this is a HEALTH CRISIS

 

and, an ECONOMIC CRISIS

 

Got to solve the HEALTH CRISIS first or else economic crisis persists

 

After HEALTH CRISIS is gone then you tackle the economic & financial crisis with unemployment rate near 25% or more, supply chains busted, many without savings etc, consumers not spending until they can save again and build saving etc 

 

Companies - some may recover, some gone forever, and NO BUYBACKS for at least a year

 

Profits may not recover to pre-virus levels for more than 1 year or two

 

All that has to happen before you get a sustainable bull market



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 05 April 2020 - 09:14 PM

...hence, SELL ALL RALLIES'

be patient, let them run it up and hold your fire until the time is right

 

PUTS are ideal for this type of trading

 

Wait for lower volatility and let those fat premiums deflate before buying



#4 dTraderB

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Posted 05 April 2020 - 09:17 PM

No doubt about that, time and time again the greatest nation in the history of civilization has bounced back. Will happen again, but it takes time. 

 

The Comeback Nation U.S. Economic Supremacy Has Repeatedly Proved Declinists Wrong
https://www.foreigna...comeback-nation

#5 dTraderB

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Posted 05 April 2020 - 09:20 PM

Trade a few mini crude contracts earlier. Now flat. Looking for a drop down to about 24 to buy or short above 32

The LONG TERM decline of oil has begun; expect a few sharp rallies but the inexorable decline to nothingness has started and is in progress for the next 5 to 8 years. 

 

 

The Oil Collapse A Pandemic and a Price War Have Together Brought Energy Markets to a Crisis
By Daniel Yergin April 2, 2020

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2020-04-02/oil-collapse



#6 dTraderB

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Posted 06 April 2020 - 08:37 AM

Will start accumulating SPY PUTS

 

 



#7 12SPX

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Posted 06 April 2020 - 09:03 AM

Questioning how deep we'll fall here, Austria, Germany planning on how there gonna come out of this, NY looking good, think people are getting anxious and getting willing to take the risk.



#8 dTraderB

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Posted 06 April 2020 - 07:16 PM

BEST NQ trading day since January 2018.

 

Great rally, classic bear market bounce, could still go up another 5 to 10% but unlikely

 

Bought 7 SPY JUN 274 and 275 puts 

 

Did not have time to trade crude.



#9 dTraderB

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Posted 07 April 2020 - 06:14 AM

Stay up market, rise -- LOOKING TO ADD SPY PUTS later

 

Many SELL a few lots SPY before cash session opens.

 

Only NQ trading so far today

 

Not buying or selling CRUDE, as yet, seems to be range-bound ready to break out



#10 dTraderB

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Posted 07 April 2020 - 06:18 AM

BEAR market rallies are like this and even more painful for bears who do not understand it and remain short. 50% retracement is possible but then down again 

Trade the rally and be ready to reverse, and if you can do it then SHORT the final 25 to 50% of the rally

 

I know I am very good with levels and trading and all but I really have no cking clue why markets so euphoric ATM
 
I mean 95% of the US economic engine is shut down
 
If my dopesheet is right 2200-2700 range is legit for many months to come