According to my risk summation system, the days this week with the highest risk of a turn or acceleration in the current trend in the DJIA are Wednesday the 8th of April and Friday the 10th.
Last week's Tueday the 31st risk window tagged a top which accelerated down in the Wednesday the 1st of April risk window. A low in the DJIA appears to have occurred in the afternoon of the Friday the 3rd risk window.
This weekend the POTUS hailed a turn in the virus tide causing the futures to blast off further cementing the low on Friday. It certainly looks like the low on March 23rd is bona fide. There's just one little thing nagging me, risk, or more precisely the positions of folks that trade risk of more volatility, VIX. All recent important lows in the market were accompanied by Commercial futures traders having a net short position and Large futures traders having a net long position. In this current sell off they have both moved to a near neutral position. Maybe the Large Traders, having been burned so many times before, have learned their lesson and this time are not chased VOL up the cliff, or maybe they have been infected with the buy-the-dip bug. It just seems strange that they would choose this highly emotional sell off to start doing the right thing.
Regards,
Douglas
