I believe Mark sees an large position in shorts as a contrary indicator.
Is this short covering? I don't think so, it started with the futures.
Posted 06 April 2020 - 11:44 AM
I believe Mark sees an large position in shorts as a contrary indicator.
Is this short covering? I don't think so, it started with the futures.
Posted 06 April 2020 - 11:58 AM
Lot of EW folks, self included, expected a c wave up in 4 up. Has a few days to run yet too.
Posted 06 April 2020 - 11:59 AM
I posted that TVIX looked ripe for "collapsation" on Friday based upon TA
Does a 14% drop count for collapsation?
So....if you were seeing a collpase of the VIX dead ahead, what would generally be the better thing to do..Buy or Sell?
I think bears that went home short on Friday are in for a world of hurt ahead....
The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy
Posted 06 April 2020 - 12:12 PM
There are two entries in this thread that said yesterday that today was coming.
Look around, you might see something.
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).
“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”
"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."
Posted 06 April 2020 - 12:15 PM
A lot of folks comparing what we just saw to 1929, and the declines on NDX/SOX charts do look pretty similar to the 29 decline.
However, after the 29 decline, prices never (well not for 25 years anyway) recovered the base that the final 29 advance launched from.
NDX is already attempting to reclaim that level after just a few weeks, and SOX not far behind.
After the steep drop to the 900 day MA in 29, it took from November until April the next year to test the 200 day MA.
NDX is likely to do it in a matter of a few weeks after the 900 day test...before the 200 MA even has a chance to turn down.
This appears to be a much stronger market than 29.....time will tell....
In any event, will continue use SOX 1540-50 as the bull bear divider.
After this dip-n-go, I expect that area to hold for a while at least.
Most likely stopping point I see for this swing up are NDX 8150 area, and SOX 1620 area.
IF...those levels get taken out upside, then likely you can pretty much forget about a big bear market....
But, if they hold, and then SOX takes out 1540-50 zone, then bearish possibilities could emerge...
Just taking this one step at a time....benefit of doubt to bulls for now.
Edited by K Wave, 06 April 2020 - 12:16 PM.
The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy
Posted 06 April 2020 - 12:37 PM
Posted 06 April 2020 - 12:38 PM
This is a game of anticipation...
It's not this move you need to figure out, it's the next one.
Posted 06 April 2020 - 12:54 PM
The VIX and the Relative VIX were tells, too. They and the SH shorting indicated short-covering that would likely swamp almost everything else once they got going.
M
Mark S Young
Wall Street Sentiment
Get a free trial here:
http://wallstreetsen...t.com/trial.htm
You can now follow me on twitter
Posted 06 April 2020 - 01:28 PM
This signal that was confirmed last December predicted a low for April 3rd, which turned out to be the test of the March 20th low, based on this signal the stock market should not go lower, so it would just be an ABC correction in the bull market.
Posted 06 April 2020 - 01:36 PM
This post on CLX work was posted in the evening after the 1st day of rally off the closing low. March 24th around 10pm. ES futures were around 2300 at the time and have not been tested. Another follow up post a few days later.
https://www.siliconi...?msgid=32630848
https://www.siliconi...?msgid=32640057