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BIG MOVE to breakout of 3-week range


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 25 April 2020 - 05:31 PM

or it simply goes back and forth in that range.  Big Tech earnings but the main influence could be the OIL PRICE. 

 

During the next week or so, there is no way I will go long this market above SPX 2700. This excludes daytrading & ES hedges. 

Looking for SPX 1800 or lower before a solid LT low is in place. 

Screen-Shot-2020-04-24-at-3.40.22-PM.png



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 25 April 2020 - 05:40 PM

Replying to
$aapl $amzn $msft $fb next week, probably the catalyst for breakdown or breakout


#3 dTraderB

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Posted 25 April 2020 - 05:42 PM

  1. Naz trying to increase the number of new highs relative to two weeks ago. Hasn't done it yet.
  2.  
  3. NYSE new highs can't even get over 20.
  4. No real pick up in new lows on the NYSE but Friday did see more lows than highs.
  5.  


#4 dTraderB

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Posted 25 April 2020 - 05:56 PM

Not sure about minus $100 oil but expect more negative oil spikes down during the next few weeks. After being stopped out on JULY crude I realized CRUDE was swinging more than enough to daytrade. Great CRUDE trading with a JUNE SHORT in place and 2 SEP LONGS. I expect closing these LONGS early next week with BUY STOPS orders as protection. But, it is a fast=moving market that requires adapting and changing positions but always keeping a hedge in place. This is not  total protection.since stop or limit orders can be filled quite far away.

 

KEY POINTS
  • “Scary,” “unbelievable,” “so dramatic,” “unprecedented,” “very visceral”: These are among the choice words Wall Street veterans used to describe what was, for the oil market, a week for the history books.
  • On Monday, for the first time on record, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. oil benchmark, plunged below zero and into negative price territory.
  • Oil prices have tumbled as the coronavirus pandemic saps worldwide demand for crude, and storage is quickly filling. Monday’s drop was exacerbated by a futures contract that was expiring.

https://www.cnbc.com...ive-prices.html



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 25 April 2020 - 05:57 PM

Headwinds... OK

 

Stocks face headwinds as investors look forward to a big earnings week, a Fed meeting and state reopenings
KEY POINTS
  • The week ahead is busy for markets, with earnings from no less than 140 S&P 500 companies, including Amazon, Microsoft, Apple and Boeing.
  • The Federal Reserve meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and it is expected to sound reassuring as it discusses the programs it has already rolled out to help the markets and the economy.
  • Some states are allowing businesses to reopen, and they will be closely watched to see at what level consumers respond and whether they can keep infection rates from rising.
  • There is some important data in the week ahead, including first quarter gross domestic product numbers and fresh data on car sales and manufacturing activity.

https://www.cnbc.com...reopenings.html



#6 dTraderB

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Posted 25 April 2020 - 06:01 PM

You do not try to make sense since the market does not make sense most of the time! Best to trade the market as it is ST and look for IT to LT trades at extremes or at least not too far away from LOW or HIGHS. Easier said than done but it is the greatest profession in the world! The next LT LOW will be in place after all the dip buyers have been burned and afraid to buy ... replaced by a new army of dip buyers after the market has recovered. 
 

Making sense of a stock market just 16% off its high while a pandemic costs 26 million jobs
KEY POINTS
  • The S&P 500 is just 16% off its all-time high and up 29% off its low a month ago despite a pandemic that’s cost 26 million jobs.
  •  But stocks don’t appear to be handicapping a quick resurgence in the economy when looking at the weak performance of “early cycle” groups such as autos, banks, consumer durable goods and retail.
  • Big, steady secular-growth stocks in technology, healthcare and consumer staples are holding things together.
  • Amazon’s $1.2 trillion market value now accounts for more than 40% of the entire value of the S&P 500 consumer-discretionary sector.
PUBLISHED SAT, APR 25 202010:14 AM EDT


#7 dTraderB

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Posted 25 April 2020 - 06:16 PM

This respected market-timing model just flashed a bullish four-year outlook for stocks

 

Published: April 25, 2020 at 8:57 a.m. ET
Value Line survey sees 8% annualized returns between now and April 2024
https://www.marketwa...4?mod=home-page

#8 redfoliage2

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Posted 25 April 2020 - 06:24 PM

More likely the market will be range bound in SPX 2650 - 2850 ............

#9 dTraderB

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Posted 25 April 2020 - 06:25 PM

Market Stalls, Is The Bear Market Rally Over?

Market rally stalls at resistance, is the “bear market rally over?”

That’s the question we have been discussing over the last few weeks. So far, most of it has played out exactly as expected by turning previous “selling panic” into a “buying rush,” and convincing a vast majority of investors the “bull market is back.”

I get it. The market has rallied 27% from its lows after falling by 35%. From sheer “panic” to unadulterated “exuberance” in four weeks. However, investors are still down 12% for the year.

SP500-Chart1-042420.png

https://realinvestme...r-full-report/?



#10 dTraderB

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Posted 25 April 2020 - 06:27 PM

“Bob Farrell, a legendary investor, is famous for his 10-Investment Rules to follow. Rule #8 states:

Bear markets have three stages – sharp down, reflexive rebound and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend

  1. Bear markets often START with a sharp and swift decline.
  2. After this decline, there is an oversold bounce that retraces a portion of that decline.
  3. The longer-term decline then continues, at a slower and more grinding pace, as the fundamentals deteriorate.

Dow Theory also suggests that bear markets consist of three down legs with reflexive rebounds in between.”

 

 

Market Stalls, Is The “Bear Market” Rally Over? – Full Report

Written by Lance Roberts | Apr 25, 2020

 

  • Market Stalls, Is The Bear Market Rally Over?
  • MacroView: This Time Might Be Different
  • Financial Planning Corner: Top Planning Questions Answered
  • Sector & Market Analysis
  • 401k Plan Manager  
Market Stalls, Is The Bear Market Rally Over?

Market rally stalls at resistance, is the “bear market rally over?”

That’s the question we have been discussing over the last few weeks. So far, most of it has played out exactly as expected by turning previous “selling panic” into a “buying rush,” and convincing a vast majority of investors the “bull market is back.” 

 

I get it. The market has rallied 27% from its lows after falling by 35%. From sheer “panic” to unadulterated “exuberance” in four weeks. However, investors are still down 12% for the year.

The Revenant

As we discussed in “The Revenant,” this is what you should have expected:

“Bob Farrell, a legendary investor, is famous for his 10-Investment Rules to follow. Rule #8 states:

Bear markets have three stages – sharp down, reflexive rebound and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend

  1. Bear markets often START with a sharp and swift decline.
  2. After this decline, there is an oversold bounce that retraces a portion of that decline.
  3. The longer-term decline then continues, at a slower and more grinding pace, as the fundamentals deteriorate.

Dow Theory also suggests that bear markets consist of three down legs with reflexive rebounds in between.”

3-Stages-Of-A-Bear-Market-1.png

As would be expected, the “Phase 1” sell-off was brutal and set up the “reflexive bounce.” 

“For many individuals, they will ‘feel like’ they are ‘safe.’ Such is how ‘bear market rallies’ lure investors back in just before they are mauled again in ‘Phase 3.’” – March 14th.

Note the date, which was well before the March 23rd lows.

A month later, and I am overwhelmed with emails telling me the “bull market is back.”

Maybe, it is.

But I tend to agree with Victor Adair of Polar Trading on this point:

“Massive monetary and fiscal stimulus in March and April will ‘counter’ the deflationary surge to some extent, but it’s not a one-for-one ‘offset.’ The deflationary impulse will continue and will be pervasive and enduring. While equity speculators have been BTD lately, the bond market, commodities, and FX have been skeptical.
 
I agree with folks who say that the Fed kept monetary policy way too easy for way too long. It encouraged way too much leverage everywhere. Now leverage is being punished, and the Fed is riding to the rescue. I guess that leverage keeps getting punished, and reduced, despite the Fed’s best efforts.
 
We’ve seen a bear market rally in the major stock indices since the March 23rd lows. However, the economic damage is underestimated at this point, and as it becomes more evident we will see a test of the lows.”

Short-Term Overbought

Regardless, in the short-term, the markets remain incredibly overbought and extended after the run from the lows. As noted last week:

“On a very short-term basis, the previous ‘deep oversold’ condition that provided the ‘fuel’ for the rally has been reversed. Also, all primary ‘overbought/sold’ indicators are now fully extended into overbought territory.”

SP500-Chart3-042420.png

The rally has run into key downtrend resistance, and remains close to triggering a short-term “sell signal” from overbought levels.

If the markets can rally more on Monday and break above the downtrend, the 61.8% retracement level becomes a viable target. Above that resides the 200-day moving average. Both levels are going to provide formidable resistance to a move higher.

Such is particularly the case considering the avalanche of exceedingly negative data coming over the next several weeks from earnings to economics.

 

 

https://realinvestme...r-full-report/?


Edited by dTraderB, 25 April 2020 - 06:28 PM.