69 replies to this topic

[diogenes227]

[CLK]

Arguing who is right and who is wrong, how does that solve anything, no one here has any power to make 

policy changes. 

[Rich C]

 

In the 2017-2018 flu season, 61,000 deaths were linked to the influenza virus in the U.S. and in the 2018-2019 season's there were 34,200 flu-related deaths. 

Overall, the CDC estimates that 12,000 and 61,000 deaths annually since 2010 can be blamed on the flu. Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 people per year. 

https://www.health.c...-flu-every-year

 

What's the point, relative to COVID19?  With the flu, the season they are measuring annually runs from Oct. - Apr., seven months.  If you take the average of the annual midpoints, that's about 40,000 deaths per year from the flu, over a seven month reporting period.  The first COVID19 death in the US was the end of Feb., so we are two months in, with 66,000 deaths in two months, while 70% of the population has been home of lockdown orders, many businesses shutdown.  Comparing flu to corona is interesting, but by any measure, corona is much more serious.  If you take the 40,000 flu deaths per season of 7 months, that is about 5,800 deaths per month.  If we take the 66,000 corona deaths in 2 months, that is 33,000 per month, about 5 times the mortality rate per month, and that is with most of the nation locked down for corona.  Imagine if people had been moving about freely, what would the death toll have been?

 

This is much more dangerous than the flu.

[pdx5]

 

 

In the 2017-2018 flu season, 61,000 deaths were linked to the influenza virus in the U.S. and in the 2018-2019 season's there were 34,200 flu-related deaths. 

Overall, the CDC estimates that 12,000 and 61,000 deaths annually since 2010 can be blamed on the flu. Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 people per year. 

https://www.health.c...-flu-every-year

 

What's the point, relative to COVID19?  With the flu, the season they are measuring annually runs from Oct. - Apr., seven months.  If you take the average of the annual midpoints, that's about 40,000 deaths per year from the flu, over a seven month reporting period.  The first COVID19 death in the US was the end of Feb., so we are two months in, with 66,000 deaths in two months, while 70% of the population has been home of lockdown orders, many businesses shutdown.  Comparing flu to corona is interesting, but by any measure, corona is much more serious.  If you take the 40,000 flu deaths per season of 7 months, that is about 5,800 deaths per month.  If we take the 66,000 corona deaths in 2 months, that is 33,000 per month, about 5 times the mortality rate per month, and that is with most of the nation locked down for corona.  Imagine if people had been moving about freely, what would the death toll have been?

 

This is much more dangerous than the flu.

 

 

No doubt covid-19 is more infectious than influenza at this stage. Because it has been around only a couple of months and no one had any anti-bodies present 2 months ago due to lack of exposure. As more people get infected and recover or are asymptomatic, there will be more people with anti-bodies if the virus makes a comeback, and therefore the mortality rate should be significantly less.

[Rich C]

 

 

 

In the 2017-2018 flu season, 61,000 deaths were linked to the influenza virus in the U.S. and in the 2018-2019 season's there were 34,200 flu-related deaths. 

Overall, the CDC estimates that 12,000 and 61,000 deaths annually since 2010 can be blamed on the flu. Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 people per year. 

https://www.health.c...-flu-every-year

 

What's the point, relative to COVID19?  With the flu, the season they are measuring annually runs from Oct. - Apr., seven months.  If you take the average of the annual midpoints, that's about 40,000 deaths per year from the flu, over a seven month reporting period.  The first COVID19 death in the US was the end of Feb., so we are two months in, with 66,000 deaths in two months, while 70% of the population has been home of lockdown orders, many businesses shutdown.  Comparing flu to corona is interesting, but by any measure, corona is much more serious.  If you take the 40,000 flu deaths per season of 7 months, that is about 5,800 deaths per month.  If we take the 66,000 corona deaths in 2 months, that is 33,000 per month, about 5 times the mortality rate per month, and that is with most of the nation locked down for corona.  Imagine if people had been moving about freely, what would the death toll have been?

 

This is much more dangerous than the flu.

 

 

No doubt covid-19 is more infectious than influenza at this stage. Because it has been around only a couple of months and no one had any anti-bodies present 2 months ago due to lack of exposure. As more people get infected and recover or are asymptomatic, there will be more people with anti-bodies if the virus makes a comeback, and therefore the mortality rate should be significantly less.

 

I would agree with this.  However, much of the herd has been shielded so there is not as much immunity as we would like.  Another observation is that many of the weakest will have already died in the first round of the virus.  We still need an effective treatment and I don't think Remdesivir is the silver bullet.  A vaccine by next winter sounds like a miracle, but it might occur.  What they would have to do is start all phases almost concurrently, including building the manufacturing capacity to produce at volume, right now.  You don't know if the thing will even pass phase 1 trials, but you have to start everything now.  You will waste some money, but it will pale in comparison to the $2 trillion rescue bill congress passed, that only covers enhanced unemployment until 7/31.

 

April 16, 2020 - Moderna Inc. shares rose as much as 21% after the company said the U.S. government has agreed to pay as much as $483 million for the company to develop and test its Covid-19 vaccine now in an initial clinical trial.

 

Under the agreement, the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, part of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, would fund development of the vaccine mRNA-1273 up through approval by the U.S. regulators, as well as efforts to scale up manufacturing, Moderna said in a press release.

 

Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine is one of the first to begin human trials. There are 70 vaccines in some stage of development now, the World Health Organization has said. Moderna said that if the trial is successful, it could reach final-stage testing by fall 2020.

 

https://www.bloomber...d-vaccine-tests

 

 

The govt. needs to do that 5 more times, maybe they will get one or two winners.

[robo]

Well, I base my opinion on the facts and the data....

 

Let's see what this guy has to say about it. These are the facts and what is happening now.

 

Worth watching in my opinion. This is NOT fake news or biased (Fox or CNN)....  Just what is happening and some lessons learned.....

 

https://www.pscp.tv/w/1yNGaQBaWrrGj

 

 

Rich,

 

I really like your Blog!

Edited by robo, 03 May 2020 - 02:41 PM.

[AChartist]

I'm trying to remember did flu season come first or did flu vaccine?

 

 

AAPs issued a strong report on hydroxy, some 91% effective but did include the numbers of the flawed VA test that

gave it to only late stage already on vent. Would be near 100% if timely is 99.6% for Zelenko 1674 patients.

Apparently need before oxygen drops below 90-92% or too much red blood cell damage has occured.

 

This is former director of American Association of Physicians and Surgeons.

Remember hydroxy banned in NY MI and NV by governor-doctors.

About a week or 10 days ago cuomo then allowed it only in hospitals but many might be getting late stage by that point should be jonny-on-the-spot at primary care.

Next time you are in a NY hospital for Pneumonia, say 75 years old with a couple diseases, tell cuomo not to give you any antibiotics until after you are

on a vent,

 

https://www.iheart.c.../?cmp=ios_share

 

 

This is a chinese study some 156 people with remdesivir and a control, no difference:

 

https://www.thelance...1022-9/fulltext

 

 

apparenly Hydroxy works on flu too, was never any need for a flu season at all.

Zelenko says hydroxy prophilaxis is only one 200mg per week after an intitial loading.

 

Saw the report that NY is 200x deaths vs the 10 largest cities in the world, in India, Japan, Brazil, etc.

 

Saw a report that TX homes are going for 20-30% higher bid than ask, brain drain diaspora that I suggested?

Edited by AChartist, 03 May 2020 - 09:03 PM.

[Rich C]

From AChartist:
 

  This is a chinese study some 156 people with remdesivir and a control, no difference:

 

https://www.thelance...1022-9/fulltext

 

 

 

 

I am sorry, but your statement above is a gross mischaracterization and oversimplification of that study.  I will quote from the study below, at your link above:

 

Added value of this study

Our study is the first randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial assessing the effect of intravenous remdesivir in adults admitted to hospital with severe COVID-19. The study was terminated before attaining the prespecified sample size. In the intention-to-treat population, the primary endpoint of time to clinical improvement was not significantly different between groups, but was numerically shorter in the remdesivir group than the control group, particularly in those treated within 10 days of symptom onset. The duration of invasive mechanical ventilation, although also not significantly different between groups, was numerically shorter in remdesivir recipients than placebo recipients.

Implications of all the available evidence

No statistically significant benefits were observed for remdesivir treatment beyond those of standard of care treatment. Our trial did not attain the predetermined sample size because the outbreak of COVID-19 was brought under control in China. Future studies of remdesivir, including earlier treatment in patients with COVID-19 and higher-dose regimens or in combination with other antivirals or SARS-CoV-2 neutralising antibodies in those with severe COVID-19 are needed to better understand its potential effectiveness.

 

 

If the study did not attain the predetermined sample size, then NO statistically valid conclusion can be drawn.  This study specifically focused only on the sickest patients, and hence the least likely to benefit from treatment of any sort. 

 

Below are the latest results from a valid test of Remdesivir:

 

April 29, 2020

Gilead Announces Results From Phase 3 Trial of Investigational Antiviral Remdesivir in Patients With Severe COVID-19

-- Study Demonstrates Similar Efficacy with 5- and 10-Day Dosing Durations of Remdesivir --

FOSTER CITY, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Apr. 29, 2020-- Gilead Sciences, Inc. (Nasdaq: GILD) today announced topline results from the open-label, Phase 3 SIMPLE trial evaluating 5-day and 10-day dosing durations of the investigational antiviral remdesivir in hospitalized patients with severe manifestations of COVID-19 disease. The study demonstrated that patients receiving a 10-day treatment course of remdesivir achieved similar improvement in clinical status compared with those taking a 5-day treatment course (Odds Ratio: 0.75 [95% CI 0.51 – 1.12] on Day 14). No new safety signals were identified with remdesivir across either treatment group. Gilead plans to submit the full data for publication in a peer-reviewed journal in the coming weeks.

 

<snip>

 

In this study, the time to clinical improvement for 50 percent of patients was 10 days in the 5-day treatment group and 11 days in the 10-day treatment group. More than half of patients in both treatment groups were discharged from the hospital by Day 14 (5-day: 60.0%, n=120/200 vs.10-day: 52.3% n=103/197; p=0.14). At Day 14, 64.5 percent (n=129/200) of patients in the 5-day treatment group and 53.8 percent (n=106/197) of patients in the 10-day treatment group achieved clinical recovery.

Clinical outcomes varied by geography. Outside of Italy, the overall mortality rate at Day 14 was 7 percent (n=23/320) across both treatment groups, with 64 percent (n=205/320) of patients experiencing clinical improvement at Day 14 and 61 percent (n=196/320) of patients discharged from the hospital.

Impact of Earlier Treatment

In an exploratory analysis, patients in the study who received remdesivir within 10 days of symptom onset had improved outcomes compared with those treated after more than 10 days of symptoms. Pooling data across treatment arms, by Day 14, 62 percent of patients treated early were able to be discharged from the hospital, compared with 49 percent of patients who were treated late.

 

https://www.gilead.c...severe-covid-19

 

 

You apparently are not reading the studies very carefully.  Are you just trying to make a certain political point, or are you really looking for the truth?

 

No valid test shows that Remdesivir does not work as you asserted incorrectly, and the first valid test with sufficient participants to draw a statistically valid conclusion shows a positive clinical response.

Edited by Rich C, 03 May 2020 - 10:05 PM.

[trioderob]

I just want to know one thing.

 

Who here would be happy if pdx5 took  over Dr Fauci's role  ?

[.Blizzard]

Ritonavir and Remdesivir have been used to treat the two Chinese early february in Italy. They were in critical conditions but after one month of cure they were recovered.

EARLY FEBRUARY!!!!!!!