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BUFFET's BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY's 54 BILLION LOSS


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 02 May 2020 - 08:22 AM

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire swings to massive $50 billion net loss after coronavirus pummels stock investments

https://www.cnbc.com...er|breakingnews



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 02 May 2020 - 08:25 AM

KEY POINTS
  • ″‘Sell in May and go away’ is suboptimal advice, people, but this May, it just so happens that the market’s run too much versus the fundamentals,” CNBC’s Jim Cramer said.
  • “I really do believe it’s worth waiting for the market to go lower to do any buying unless we got some incredible vaccine news over the weekend, and I don’t think we’re going to get that,” the “Mad Money” host said.
  • “The market got ahead of itself,” he added, “so now we’re having a curb-your-enthusiasm moment, so please be careful out there.”
  • https://www.cnbc.com...asm-moment.html


#3 dTraderB

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Posted 02 May 2020 - 08:28 AM

A good chance to restest? YES! But this will be a long & painful decline, rally, decline, rally, and this goes on for a while until the final LOW that could be below SPX 1800. When it does make THAT FINAL LOW, throw as many $ as you can into the market because it will be a massive rally for a few days or weeks.

 

 

Will the stock market tumble back to its coronavirus lows in March? About 92 years of S&P 500 history says there’s a good chance

https://www.marketwa...1?mod=home-page



#4 dTraderB

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Posted 02 May 2020 - 08:30 AM

Warren Buffett’s favorite stock-market indicator ‘scares the bejeezus’ out of this investor

https://www.marketwa...0?mod=home-page



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 02 May 2020 - 08:32 AM

NO! Market in 2020 is different. A low could be in place by mid May, followed by a 25% rally.

After the best April for the Dow and S&P 500 in 82 years, is ‘sell in May’ in the coronavirus era a smart strategy?

https://www.marketwa...0?mod=home-page



#6 dTraderB

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Posted 02 May 2020 - 08:34 AM

TRUE. This is not your normal MARKET CRISIS. It is primarily a HEALTH CRISIS. Solve that and then give people the confidence to come out and spend again... then market rally will be sustainable, Throwing trillions at the market is good, it helps, but it is the consumer who must be convinced 

 

Too many investors are failing to grasp that the coronavirus recession may be longer and tougher
https://www.marketwa...9?mod=home-page

#7 dTraderB

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Posted 02 May 2020 - 08:35 AM

Active investment managers went to more than 70% net long this week, despite a still-downtrending market. That happened in Jan & May 2008 with ill effects. Again in Jan 2019 during the v-bottom. So maybe the best tell is how the market responds short-term to optimism.


#8 dTraderB

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Posted 02 May 2020 - 08:36 AM

Our IWM Optimism Index (for small cap stocks) has reached 99, the highest level *EVER* The 2nd highest reading was in Oct 2011, when stocks fell -12.8% over the next month. Less extreme readings also led to pullbacks


#9 dTraderB

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Posted 02 May 2020 - 08:40 AM

I hold similar sentiments

 

$XOM $XLE $HAL 1-2 weeks ago I sold out my entire $AMZN $GOOGL. My portfolio now consists of a very large exposure in financials (which I believe trade at a S&P equivalent of 2200 or less), several special situations (value oriented) longs and a medium-sized SPY put position against them. My gross exposure is back to a low level -- not surprising considering the economic and health uncertainties and the closeness of the S&P to fair market value. My guess is that I will be selling my SPY puts sometime next week -- win, lose or draw -- as these are ntended as short-term rentals and not long-term leases. Theta (decay of option premium) risk. Also, I am short Apple ($AAPL) and Caterpillar ($CAT) .
 


#10 dTraderB

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Posted 02 May 2020 - 08:47 AM

FED has thrown hook, line, sinker, and as much as it can at the market; it has worked to some extent, can't blame the FED; also, the FED has done it's covered-yah-arse thing and put the onus now on the politicians and corporate sector to do their part. FED can still print trillions but it gets into pushing-in-a-string mode with little additional benefit to the economy. Markets may rise but ultimately market has to come back in sync with the real world, the real economy, and consumer confidence. But, do not trade on that because it can take months!  
 
· Heavy Trucks Sales Fell in March to 382K Historically, before recessions and bear markets, heavy truck sales peak and then decline
 
#MACROVIEW - Why the #Fed is now #Permanently stuck at #zero and why it isn't necessarily a #good thing.

Edited by dTraderB, 02 May 2020 - 08:47 AM.