The oft-spoken warning "don't fight the fed" implying the fed controls equity market pricing has become so much irony as of late. Who's really leading whom? Who made the first move in Dec. '18 and again in March - the fed or the markets? A casual observer might reasonably conclude that the markets are in charge. Their smallest display of dissatisfaction results in the fed fulfilling their every desire. Destroy the competition of treasury yield? No problem. Bail the zombies? Of course. Backstop the entire freakin crooked system? Why not.
It is easy to make the bear case. Everyone seems to be doing it - and therein lies the problem. Elevated fear and bearishness builds a solid wall of worry for the courageous (or foolish?) to climb. And with the election looming, neither party wants to catch blame for destroying the economy - deficit be da#%ed. "Relief" funding will continue to be printed - or at least promised. Wrong as it may be, stock market strength is perceived by many as equating to economic strength. And there are still a few 409K holders (mostly tail-end boomers?) whose hopes are tied to the markets. Who knows, a true wealth effect in nominal terms might result from markets rallying and never looking back.
If the Monday plunge that some are expecting ends as a failed breakdown, the snapback rally could be fierce, with higher prices bringing more bearishness bringing still higher prices - continuing until bears relent or go broke - whichever comes first. Of course strong defensive selling, a phase two of C19, a black swan or lousy fed follow-through could always skewer the bulls.
Below is a rough linear hourly chart of tqqq including a minor count guess. Price so far has fallen short of the 3rd target level. A breach of the 2nd target (but not the 1st) prior to resuming the trend would kick off a major count having a potential final target of ~182 [((60.89 - 40.67) x 7) + 40.67]. The following chart suggests the same approximate level as a possibility. Should one sell in May July and walk away? The third chart is an hourly log plot of tqqq showing the low volume of Friday afternoon's selling.
Of course none of this post is intended as trading advice nor prediction of future market direction. My only ff at present is that price might move strongly one way or the other in the near term. The current level looks to be somewhat significant.
JMHO.