10 replies to this topic

[K Wave]

We are now talking about 5 deaths per day in the entire state.

 

As I have said over and over again...April will club this thing over the head, and May will kill it dead.

 

This is NOTHING LIKE Spanish Flu.

 

As you can see from the WA Epi Death Curve, peak mortality was about 3 per million per day....25-27 per day in a population of nearly 8 million.

Spanish flu was 2500 per million per day at the peak.

 

 

[MikeyG]

The data looks like they should.

[K Wave]

This Death Epi Curve even more clearly shows that the Shutdowns were done too late to really matter much.

 

The death curve should have accelerated for many weeks after March 25 essential business only order, as this primer on length of time until death clearly shows...when it can take up to 10 weeks from onset of symptoms until actual death.

 

https://elemental.me...ts-199e266fd018

 

So apparently, this thing was nowhere near as deadly as we were initially led to believe, otherwise the mass of people who got infected in big numbers pre-shutdown should have showed up in the death stats well into late May.

The numbers clearly do not show that.

 

What it does show is that deaths started dropping nearly immediately after the order, not many weeks after....implying the worst was over before the shutdown, and things were already getting better naturally as they tend to into late March to April time frame.

Edited by K Wave, 04 May 2020 - 10:43 AM.

[Iblayz]

Meanwhile, yet ANOTHER study, this one in Germany, that indicates that the infection rate is WAY more than the "official" reported and confirmed infection rate and, low and behold, once again, this indicates that the death rate is WAY lower than the rate found if one uses only the "official" numbers. But as we all have seen, some people refuse to use reason and logic that would take them beyond what the "powers that be" are telling us. As more and more well trained and intelligent people are studying this all over the world, the evidence just keeps piling up. These researchers, based on real tests conducted on real people, many of whom had no symptoms at all, concluded that the number of people in Germany infected with the virus is likely to be TEN TIMES the "official" number. Of course, the problem with that logical assumption is that, once again, brings the death rate down to approximately .37%. Warning: you won't find this in the John's Hopkins numbers so if that is your gospel and all that you choose to believe......and you insist on believing the worst......don't read the article. Oh, by the way, the research was conducted by the Institute for Virology at the University Hospital Bonn......not exactly a bunch of clowns on the street with swabs and test kits that they bought off the internet.

 

https://www.foxnews....ed-study-claims

 

From the link......and note that the town where the tests were conducted had the HIGHEST number of fatalities in Germany.........

 

The researchers focused on Gangelt, a town near the Dutch border that had the highest number of fatalities in Germany, and analyzed blood and nasal swabs from 919 people. A carnival celebration is believed to have set off the COVID-19 spread. Approximately 15 percent of the town had been infected, according to the study.

 

“For the first time, our data enables us to estimate how many people have been infected after the super-spreading event,” Dr. Hendrik Streeck, director of the institute for virology at the University Hospital Bonn, said in a news release. “The total number of infections allows us to determine the infection fatality rate. In Gangelt the infection fatality rate (IFR) after the SARS CoV-2 outbreak is .37 percent.”

 

[CLK]

I don't see the relevance in the low death rate number, 100k - 200k deaths if it ends up that low

is still way more deaths than the flu. Maybe absent lockdown it would not have been over 200k, but 

hindsight is 20/20, the government didn't want to take chances and were being told 2.2 million.

 

I think the lockdown should go away soon for most states, it's getting warmer and the numbers are dropping.

[K Wave]

I don't see the relevance in the low death rate number, 100k - 200k deaths if it ends up that low
is still way more deaths than the flu. Maybe absent lockdown it would not have been over 200k, but 
hindsight is 20/20, the government didn't want to take chances and were being told 2.2 million.
 
I think the lockdown should go away soon for most states, it's getting warmer and the numbers are dropping.

In order to have an apples-to-apples comparison with the flu, you have to treat cause of death the same.

They are treating everything as covid even if that is likely not the primary cause of death. They are not even requiring a covid positive test in many instances.

I have not been able to confirm this yet, but I am pretty sure the flu is not treated the same way.

As an aside, my wife's cousin works for a medical insurance company in Dallas, and she says what they are seeing is possibly rampant fraud in covid-19 cause of death for better reimbursement.

She said her company was going to try to take the position that if there was no covid-19 positive test, they're not going to reimburse for it. Not sure if they will be successful with that approach or not.

Edited by K Wave, 04 May 2020 - 01:42 PM.

[risktaker]

Maybe they want to be mostly free of the virus like China, Taiwan, etc.

Btw, Microsoft asked employees to work at home early March and their K-12 schools shutdown mid-March. Those helped with the low deaths rate in Washington State.

[Iblayz]

As an aside, my wife's cousin works for a medical insurance company in Dallas, and she says what they are seeing is possibly rampant fraud in covid-19 cause of death for better reimbursement.

She said her company was going to try to take the position that if there was no covid-19 positive test, they're not going to reimburse for it. Not sure if they will be successful with that approach or not.

 

 

Most major insurance companies (and Medicare) have waived deductibles and co-pays for COVID related tests and/or hospitalizations. In an era where a large percentage of the population has, by necessity, been forced into large up-front yearly deductibles in addition to post-deductible co-pays, there is great incentive to go for the COVID diagnosis. Don't have to worry about the patient's ability to pay. Don't have to worry about all the time spent chasing down money. Don't have to worry about legal costs to pursue those who refuse or can't pay.

Edited by Iblayz, 04 May 2020 - 03:28 PM.

[orange]

Washington State was one of the first states to begin stay at home policies before it was officially announced by the governor. Tech companies began having employees work from home near the end February. People stopped going out to bars and limited social activities before March. This was over a week before Pence was announced as leading the COVID-19 emergency. All of this was weeks before California issued stay at home orders. Businesses were still open, but no one was going out. Uber and Lyft drivers were immediately effected. Traffic was no longer an issue in the Seattle area. Again, this all started before the federal government took any actions to combat COVID-19.

 

A full shutdown was done after the majority of the state was already self social distancing and that is why you don't see the stay at home order have as large as an effect as in some other cities. The shutdown didn't happen too late - social distancing started way early. But, it also makes you wonder why WA state is not re-opening at a faster rate. It's too slow...

[K Wave]

But, it also makes you wonder why WA state is not re-opening at a faster rate. It's too slow...

 

Especially now that Sweden has essentially proved that the Imperial College various plans of inaction were a complete joke, and that this virus is nowhere near as deadly as was originally as originally predicted....by an order of magnitude.

 

Here is the current Sweden Death Curve with nothing close to a lock down.

You all can believe these lock downs were done in time to be significantly useful, but actual facts suggest otherwise, now that they are available.

Sweden death curve looks like a normal curve with no lock downs.

And look where the deaths started declining.... 2nd week April, same as NYC. (note: Sweden has the April marker at mid-month, last peak was 4/14)

 

Again....this is with a Monday Morning QB look at things.  But it is time to end these lock downs NOW.