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TD Ameritrade Sentiment


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#1 Darris

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Posted 07 May 2020 - 04:41 PM

Topdown charts talks about the $IMX data at TD ameritrade as a sentiment tool.  TD calls it the Investor movement index.  It looks like they have data from early 2010.  I see 3.43 as the all time low in late December 2011, and the recent update this week shows 3.9.  Just an add to the AAII and a few other items being discussed lately.............JcUxN2.jpg



#2 Darris

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Posted 07 May 2020 - 04:45 PM

It is published monthly to the public here:

https://imx.tdamerit.../imx/p/imx-pub/

 

Investor Movement Index Summary:
April 2020
April 2020
Reading (IMX)
April 2020
3.9-0.26 (-6.25%)
Historic range (since Jan 2010 inception)
 
Trends
DirectionNegative
Length
Previous trend: Negative (2 months)
Current trend: Negative (3 months)
Monthly Summary
 
Exposure to equity markets decreased in TD Ameritrade client accounts for the third month in a row during the April period. The IMX moved lower by 6.25%, or 0.26, from the previous period to reach 3.90.
 
TD Ameritrade clients were net buyers overall for the second month in a row. They were also net buyers of equities, but as volatility among widely held names decreased during the period, the IMX score moved lower. Buying was particularly heavy in the Industrials and Consumer Discretionary sectors. The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, which measures volatility of the S&P 500 Index, remained elevated compared to historical levels, but decreased over 45% during the period.
 
The COVID-19 pandemic continued to influence equity markets during the April IMX period, with investors looking for any positive sign that lockdowns were effective. Equity markets rebounded after large losses in March. During the period, the S&P 500 increased 11.6%, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 9.9%. The Nasdaq Composite posted the best gains, increasing 15.1%. Volatility was still prevalent, with the S&P 500 moving in excess of +/-1% during 16 of the 19 market days during the period. Early in the month, the Dow industrials posted a daily gain of 1,600 points as investors looked to early signs that stay-at-home orders in the U.S. and Europe may be helping slow the coronavirus pandemic. Unemployment claims reached historic levels as the pandemic stifled economic activity, pushing the total to over 20 million during a one-month period. Oil prices headed lower as demand weakened and entered negative territory. Congressional leaders and the White House reached another stimulus deal, this time for nearly $480 billion in aid for small businesses, hospitals, and additional testing for the coronavirus.
 
Trading
 
Equities were net bought in TD Ameritrade client accounts for the second month in a row on weakness. Airline companies Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL), American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL), and United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL) were all net bought, as each stock traded lower during the period. Each company is set to receive billions of dollars in aid from the U.S. government in the form of payroll support and low-interest loans as the companies suffer from the COVID-19 pandemic. Cruise line operators Carnival Corp. (CCL) and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) were also net bought. CCL was lower during the period, while RCL was flat, with each company working on plans to reduce operating expenses and capital expenditures in response to lower revenue. Boeing Inc. (BA) was net bought for the second month in a row, with the stock lower by 20% during the period, as the company announced plans to walk away from its proposed $4.2 billion combination with Embraer SA's commercial-aircraft business. Big banks Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and Wells Fargo Inc. (WFC) were both net bought. Each stock is significantly lower since the beginning of the year, as both grapple with slowing economic growth and a lower interest rate environment after the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to 0% last month. Exxon Mobile Corp. (XOM) was net bought for the second month in a row. The stock rebounded during the period after crude futures extended their rebound and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin flagged plans to help the troubled sector. Microsoft Inc. (MSFT) participated in the Tech sector rally, with the stock up over 16%, and was a net buy.
 
Additional popular names bought include Ford Motor Co. (F), Walt Disney Co. (this), General Electric Co. (GE), and AT&T Inc. (T).
 
TD Ameritrade clients were net sellers of Otis Worldwide Corp. (OTIS) during the period. The company is one of the five global leaders in elevators and the only elevator pure play in the U.S. stock market, and received an analyst upgrade during the period. Wabtec Corp. (WAB), which announced a partnership with Tronix3D to provide much needed personal protective equipment (PPE) for Excela Health, a health system provider of advanced medical care in Pennsylvania, was net sold. Chinese internet companies Iqiyi Inc.(IQ) and Tencent Holdings Limited (TCEHY) were both net sold during the period. TCEHY introduced one of its top online games to new markets, from Russia to the Middle East, at a time the Covid-19 pandemic is fueling an unprecedented global gaming boom. IQ introduced a new interactive section on the international version of the iQIYI App for a hit show, and was net sold. Carrier Global Corp. (CARR), a provider of heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC), refrigeration, fire, security, and building automation technologies worldwide, received an analyst upgrade and traded higher during the period, and was net sold.
 
Additional names sold include Glu Mobile Inc. (GLUU) and Corteva Inc. (CTVA).
 
Inclusion of specific security names in this commentary does not constitute a recommendation from TD Ameritrade to buy, sell, or hold.
 
Historical Overview
 
TD Ameritrade's Investor Movement Index (IMX) has generally correlated with the S&P 500 as clients react to equity price movements, but the index has gone through uncorrelated periods. Beginning in January 2010, when TD Ameritrade started tracking the IMX, the index rose with equity markets until April 2010, when it peaked at 5.40. In May 2010 investors experienced the "Flash Crash" and the IMX began a sharp downward trend. The IMX didn't reach 5.00 again until the S&P 500 was well above April 2010 levels. The index eventually peaked at 5.56 in June 2011. This peak was immediately followed by a plunge in equity markets, and in the IMX, as the media was dominated by the U.S. debt ceiling debate, S&P downgrade of U.S. debt, and European debt concerns. The S&P 500 began to recover in the fall of 2011, but the IMX continued to decline until it reached a new low at the time in January 2012. As the S&P 500 began to sustain an upward trend in early 2012, the IMX started to rise. In 2013, as economic conditions improved and the S&P 500 climbed to record levels, the IMX rose to the high end of its historical range, finishing 2013 at 5.62, and continued to rise in 2014 amid geopolitical tensions related to Ukraine and the Middle East, until seeing slight declines in October and November. By the middle of 2015 the IMX had seen increases, as equity market volatility had reduced to near historical levels while the market continued its upward trend. As 2015 ended its third quarter, volatility had returned to markets, as global economic concerns and speculation around the timing and trajectory of Federal Reserve rate increases seemed to rattle overall equity markets. This uncertainty continued to play a role in the equity markets through the fourth quarter of 2015 and into early 2016. The volatility accompanying this uncertainty abated in the second quarter of 2016 and remained low until late in the third quarter. Just as it had in 2015, the IMX saw increases mid-year during the period of lower volatility. The IMX continued to climb into the fourth quarter reaching 5.83 in October 2016, its highest point in two years. A brief spike in volatility during November, timed around the U.S. presidential election, coincided with a slight pull back in the IMX, which then ended 2016 at the high end of its historical range. The IMX started 2017 with an upward trend and reaching an all-time high in March, before pausing in April as lower volatility lead to a decrease in the IMX. The momentum resumed in May, with the IMX breaching 7.0 for the first time ever in July of 2017. The IMX took another brief pause in September, before following markets higher and breaching 8.0 for the first time ever in November and ending 2017 at an all-time high. Volatility returned to the markets in early 2018, and the IMX decreased for four consecutive months to start the year. The IMX then rebounded in the spring of 2018 and continued higher during the summer on the back of better-than-expected earnings and increasing equity markets. The IMX headed higher during the fall of 2018 as economic growth increased before heading lower in late 2018 as the Nasdaq Composite entered a bear market to end the year. Geopolitical issues were in the headlines during early 2019 as the U.S. and China traded tariffs. The IMX rebounded along with equity markets in the spring of 2019 on optimism of a trade deal with China and the unemployment rate nearing a 49-year low. The IMX remained range-bound during the summer of 2019 as trade-related policy concerns led to investors favoring less-risky assets, including fixed-income products. Heading into the fall of 2019, the IMX began to rebound and ended the year at the highest levels in over a year as trade war fears diminished and economic data began to improve globally. In early 2020, the bull market ended as markets pulled back due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with markets experiencing volatility not seen since the financial crisis of 2008.


#3 Darris

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Posted 07 May 2020 - 06:00 PM

One way to characterize the market the last few years has been this seemingly never ending stair step climb, and then sudden elevator drop.  This IMX indicator shows after everyone of those drops they are noticeably slow to get back in, and that is playing out now again.  The summary detail for the last month was also interesting that customer were buying airlines, cruise ship companies and energy, and other well know names that have been crushed, but only MSFT mentioned in the FAANG-M group.  Anyway, a good lesson on retail vs smart money.

 

Also remember the Art Cashin story when the Cuban Missile crisis occurred in 1962:

 

My father died when I was a senior in high school so I had to pass up the chance for a scholarship to college to work in Wall Street to help support the family. Most of what I learned came from sitting in saloons that had encyclopedias behind the bar – usually to settle bets.
 
The things I learned in the saloons were not the same things you learn in places like the Sloan School of Management – usually they were better.
 
For example there was the lesson I learned during the Cuban Missile Crisis. At the time I was studying with “Professor Jack” under a Moosehead, in a saloon called “Eberlin’s” down the block from the exchange. The tuition was paid in scotch “old fashions.” Classes lasted until either you ran out of money to buy drinks or Jack ran out of the ability to stand.   Jack was actually a 62 year-old trader in silver stocks but he had more in his head than is in most university libraries.
 
Anyway, it was the Cuban Missile Crisis and there were rumors that Russia had launched rockets and the Dow took a dive near the bell.
 
I cleaned up my desk and raced to the Moosehead, as animated as only an 18 year-old can be. Jack was already there and as I burst through the door, I shouted: “Jack! Jack, there was a strong rumor that the missiles were flying and I tried to sell the market but failed.”
 
Jack said “Calm down kid! First buy me a drink and then sit down and listen to me.” I ordered the drink and meekly sat down.
 
Jack said – “Look kid, if you hear the missiles are flying, you buy them. You don’t sell them.”
 
“You buy them?” I said, somewhat puzzled.
 
“Sure you buy them!” said Jack. “Cause if you’re wrong, the trade will never clear. We’ll all be dead.”
 

That’s a lesson you won’t learn in the Wharton School.  



#4 Iblayz

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Posted 07 May 2020 - 10:36 PM

Please, keep cheerleading. Keep pushing. And please, ya'll keep talking about how the system is loaded with shorts. I am not one of them but, even if I was and they squeezed me to death, the money that I would lose trading would be DWARFED by the money that we would make on the long side.Here's the thing. If the Bubblebutts are stupid enough (and that is stupid with a capital S T U P I D) to take this thing straight, without any meaningful pullback, to that gap at 3328.45, then we will be smart enough (within a few hours) to sell them everything that we own in all markets. We have plenty of cash but have more in various markets. And the wife says that none of it will EVER go back in. She is tired of these clowns. Can't say that I blame her.


Edited by Iblayz, 07 May 2020 - 10:37 PM.


#5 Darris

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Posted 08 May 2020 - 07:43 AM

zoropb who used to post here can help you out with that.



#6 humbled

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Posted 08 May 2020 - 09:21 AM

zoropb who used to post here can help you out with that.

Thanks for this info, Darris. Very interesting...



#7 Darris

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Posted 08 May 2020 - 10:24 AM

Here is another interesting sentiment calculation I saw yesterday at da cheif's board.  It is the Total put call ratio times VIX Ranked as a % to the entire population of readings.  This is very bullish as well still.  Posted a series of charts on my twitter since it is easier.  The past couple of months has created an emotional divide in the stock market the boyz will be able to feast on for decades.

 

https://twitter.com/...774927030845442



#8 K Wave

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Posted 08 May 2020 - 11:22 AM

Here is another interesting sentiment calculation I saw yesterday at da cheif's board.  It is the Total put call ratio times VIX Ranked as a % to the entire population of readings.  This is very bullish as well still.  Posted a series of charts on my twitter since it is easier.  The past couple of months has created an emotional divide in the stock market the boyz will be able to feast on for decades.

 

https://twitter.com/...774927030845442

Look likes all the big lows had secondary drops that tested or exceeded the initial drop to the lows.

 

Still thinking 1962 is likely the closest analog we have to this "scare".

 

We top out soon, and then get one more drop, that should be bought for the long haul....set it and forget it for few years


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#9 Darris

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Posted 08 May 2020 - 03:46 PM

K Wave, I generally agree based on history, but the last few years my view of price oscillation has changed and have almost given up on material retests in the ongoing drive higher.  Call it "IBM Watson", "AI", "Bots", "Gamma", or what ever, the computer algos are too fast and smart to think that there is enough human selling to sustain a downtrend for more than 3 months or 1 month, which in my opinion, is how long the last two bear markets have lasted.  Buy every good dip, and hold on.  This week alone was almost bottom tick open and top tick close for 160 pt ES range.  Took about 2.5 hours into the Asia open this past Sunday to bottom at 2771 and we almost just hit 2930 after the cash close today.  Monday's have started to be days not to be long, and into the March 23rd Monday low and starting with Feb 24th, 730 of the SPX 1200 pts down were on Mondays.  After the April 17th expiry high at 2885 we dropped to 2718 in two days, so we should have many more months of wide price action to work with.  Have a great weekend, and thanks for taking the time to post as much as you do.  good stuff.  PS the Commercial COT report shows they increased their net long exposure to a new record high on Tuesday, and the Non-Commercial speculators trimmed some of their ES mini shorts but were still almost 225K contracts net short.