Topdown charts talks about the $IMX data at TD ameritrade as a sentiment tool. TD calls it the Investor movement index. It looks like they have data from early 2010. I see 3.43 as the all time low in late December 2011, and the recent update this week shows 3.9. Just an add to the AAII and a few other items being discussed lately.............
TD Ameritrade Sentiment
#1
Posted 07 May 2020 - 04:41 PM
#2
Posted 07 May 2020 - 04:45 PM
It is published monthly to the public here:
https://imx.tdamerit.../imx/p/imx-pub/
#3
Posted 07 May 2020 - 06:00 PM
One way to characterize the market the last few years has been this seemingly never ending stair step climb, and then sudden elevator drop. This IMX indicator shows after everyone of those drops they are noticeably slow to get back in, and that is playing out now again. The summary detail for the last month was also interesting that customer were buying airlines, cruise ship companies and energy, and other well know names that have been crushed, but only MSFT mentioned in the FAANG-M group. Anyway, a good lesson on retail vs smart money.
Also remember the Art Cashin story when the Cuban Missile crisis occurred in 1962:
That’s a lesson you won’t learn in the Wharton School.
#4
Posted 07 May 2020 - 10:36 PM
Please, keep cheerleading. Keep pushing. And please, ya'll keep talking about how the system is loaded with shorts. I am not one of them but, even if I was and they squeezed me to death, the money that I would lose trading would be DWARFED by the money that we would make on the long side.Here's the thing. If the Bubblebutts are stupid enough (and that is stupid with a capital S T U P I D) to take this thing straight, without any meaningful pullback, to that gap at 3328.45, then we will be smart enough (within a few hours) to sell them everything that we own in all markets. We have plenty of cash but have more in various markets. And the wife says that none of it will EVER go back in. She is tired of these clowns. Can't say that I blame her.
Edited by Iblayz, 07 May 2020 - 10:37 PM.
#5
Posted 08 May 2020 - 07:43 AM
zoropb who used to post here can help you out with that.
#6
Posted 08 May 2020 - 09:21 AM
zoropb who used to post here can help you out with that.
Thanks for this info, Darris. Very interesting...
#7
Posted 08 May 2020 - 10:24 AM
Here is another interesting sentiment calculation I saw yesterday at da cheif's board. It is the Total put call ratio times VIX Ranked as a % to the entire population of readings. This is very bullish as well still. Posted a series of charts on my twitter since it is easier. The past couple of months has created an emotional divide in the stock market the boyz will be able to feast on for decades.
https://twitter.com/...774927030845442
#8
Posted 08 May 2020 - 11:22 AM
Here is another interesting sentiment calculation I saw yesterday at da cheif's board. It is the Total put call ratio times VIX Ranked as a % to the entire population of readings. This is very bullish as well still. Posted a series of charts on my twitter since it is easier. The past couple of months has created an emotional divide in the stock market the boyz will be able to feast on for decades.
Look likes all the big lows had secondary drops that tested or exceeded the initial drop to the lows.
Still thinking 1962 is likely the closest analog we have to this "scare".
We top out soon, and then get one more drop, that should be bought for the long haul....set it and forget it for few years
The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy
#9
Posted 08 May 2020 - 03:46 PM
K Wave, I generally agree based on history, but the last few years my view of price oscillation has changed and have almost given up on material retests in the ongoing drive higher. Call it "IBM Watson", "AI", "Bots", "Gamma", or what ever, the computer algos are too fast and smart to think that there is enough human selling to sustain a downtrend for more than 3 months or 1 month, which in my opinion, is how long the last two bear markets have lasted. Buy every good dip, and hold on. This week alone was almost bottom tick open and top tick close for 160 pt ES range. Took about 2.5 hours into the Asia open this past Sunday to bottom at 2771 and we almost just hit 2930 after the cash close today. Monday's have started to be days not to be long, and into the March 23rd Monday low and starting with Feb 24th, 730 of the SPX 1200 pts down were on Mondays. After the April 17th expiry high at 2885 we dropped to 2718 in two days, so we should have many more months of wide price action to work with. Have a great weekend, and thanks for taking the time to post as much as you do. good stuff. PS the Commercial COT report shows they increased their net long exposure to a new record high on Tuesday, and the Non-Commercial speculators trimmed some of their ES mini shorts but were still almost 225K contracts net short.