4 replies to this topic

[CLK]

I would agree that this was a crash or even a short term cyclical bear market,

but this is not a secular bear or even the start of one. 
It looks more like a condensed version of 1987 or most likely 1962.

Edited by CLK, 08 May 2020 - 01:08 PM.

[pdx5]

The sudden panic attack in March brought on by the Chinese virus, was quickly cured by equally panicked FED and the congress with record breaking size of stimulus relaxing many other constraints.

[Rich C]

I think we are in a bear market, more likely cyclical one IMO.  It is not a standard business cycle bear market, which we know how to play in, rather it is what I call an artificially induced bear market, and while some bear market rules may apply, I don't see any reason why all bear market rules need apply.  In most bear markets, the "LOW" is not put in on the first decline.  Usually bear markets go down over time as the business cycle declines.  It takes time before all the bankruptcies and layoffs occur.

 

What bother me about this one is that with the market going up so fast on this latest bounce, I think people seem to think they know how the recovery in the economy will go.  They seem to think somehow this will all be over by football season.  For some folks it may, if you are young and healthy.  Many folks will not want to take the slightest chance dying, and they will write off 2020, no vacation, pick up at restaurants, but less frequently than they used to dine out.  That can back farther into the economy and impact the large corporations more heavily down the road.

 

We'll see.  I hope we get a vaccine, I'd like to play golf sometime this year.

[linrom1]

I think we are in a bear market, more likely cyclical one IMO.  It is not a standard business cycle bear market, which we know how to play in, rather it is what I call an artificially induced bear market, and while some bear market rules may apply, I don't see any reason why all bear market rules need apply.  In most bear markets, the "LOW" is not put in on the first decline.  Usually bear markets go down over time as the business cycle declines.  It takes time before all the bankruptcies and layoffs occur.

 

What bother me about this one is that with the market going up so fast on this latest bounce, I think people seem to think they know how the recovery in the economy will go.  They seem to think somehow this will all be over by football season.  For some folks it may, if you are young and healthy.  Many folks will not want to take the slightest chance dying, and they will write off 2020, no vacation, pick up at restaurants, but less frequently than they used to dine out.  That can back farther into the economy and impact the large corporations more heavily down the road.

 

We'll see.  I hope we get a vaccine, I'd like to play golf sometime this year.

I agree and if I may add that the market is ignoring political risk of the upcoming elections. I am seeing increasing rage at income inequity and soaring market is adding to that. I think that most people can't comprehend how it is possible to have rising market and depression era like unemployment. We have an army of people that think like AOC and they're grabbing political power.  I no longer think that Trump's reelection is slam dunk, people will vote against him out of economic spite any they can see how he caters to only elites.

Edited by linrom1, 09 May 2020 - 08:13 AM.

[MDurkin]

 

I think we are in a bear market, more likely cyclical one IMO.  It is not a standard business cycle bear market, which we know how to play in, rather it is what I call an artificially induced bear market, and while some bear market rules may apply, I don't see any reason why all bear market rules need apply.  In most bear markets, the "LOW" is not put in on the first decline.  Usually bear markets go down over time as the business cycle declines.  It takes time before all the bankruptcies and layoffs occur.

 

What bother me about this one is that with the market going up so fast on this latest bounce, I think people seem to think they know how the recovery in the economy will go.  They seem to think somehow this will all be over by football season.  For some folks it may, if you are young and healthy.  Many folks will not want to take the slightest chance dying, and they will write off 2020, no vacation, pick up at restaurants, but less frequently than they used to dine out.  That can back farther into the economy and impact the large corporations more heavily down the road.

 

We'll see.  I hope we get a vaccine, I'd like to play golf sometime this year.

I agree and if I may add that the market is ignoring political risk of the upcoming elections. I am seeing increasing rage at income inequity and soaring market is adding to that. I think that most people can't comprehend how it is possible to have rising market and depression era like unemployment. We have an army of people that think like AOC and they're grabbing political power.  I no longer think that Trump's reelection is slam dunk, people will vote against him out of economic spite any they can see how he caters to only elites.

 

No not our Donald...