25 replies to this topic

[andr99]

if we have continuation down in the spx tomorrow and thursday and we get to 2750......I think it's done. If so.....alleluyah, TA works again

Edited by andr99, 12 May 2020 - 02:57 PM.

[K Wave]

Sell the good news?

 

New York in with a 1.004 today...this thing is so done....

[CHAx]

A couple of supports that could hold before that number, I personally am fancying 2805 ES, then rally to new highs (but Im pretty flexible here intraday) and there is still a bear case for much lower prices as well.   Lets see how price reacts! 

 

Going to peel back some of these shorts into the Asian open....  And reassess outlook overnight- depending on European reaction to this selloff.

[claire]

"Sell the good news?

 

New York in with a 1.004 today...this thing is so done...."

 

NY has the toughest lockdown, which is the reason for the decline. The rest of the U.S. has rising rates of infection and deaths. When NY is removed from the graph showing the levels of infections and deaths, the line is still going up and barely flattening. Now, with some State's restrictions loosened, it will likely rise even more or keep the graph from declining. We have had over 80,000 deaths in 2.5 months. Many more deaths will follow.

 

Among those who survived after being seriously ill, many will have suffered irreparable damage to their lungs, hearts, vascular system, or brain with compromised health and longevity. Now we are seeing children whose lives are endangered and who may also have to live with impaired health. We have yet to learn the full consequences of this illness, its repercussions, and autoimmune reactions that may follow, but many are still not convinced of its seriousness and liken it to the flu or believe that good health and safety practices will render them immune. 

 

Korea learned about the pandemic at the same time that we did, but they took action immediately --testing, quarantining, and contact tracing - and it worked. They saved the lives of their people. We bungled this from the get go and lost at least 2.5 months, hearing nothing but lies and denials and we are paying the price mightily with the lives of over 80,000 and still counting. And, we lost control when we could have and should have had the strongest efforts in place among all nations. Yet we were put to shame by Third World countries who acted more quickly and effectively. 
 

Our healthcare workers have died and STILL, yesterday, a friend who is a nephrologist at a major hospital in Chicago told me that the doctors and nurses cannot be tested unless they need hospitalization -- that they STILL need to self-quarantine if they have symptoms, and they have to reuse masks. They don't have enough tests. Many E.M.S workers have died, and all of them don't have available tests. Finally, now they promise to test people in nursing homes and those healthcare workers who may be spreading the illness. I hope nobody here has a parent or grandparent in a nursing facility. This is the reality. We keep hearing that we've done more testing than other nations, but we have NOT done more per-capita testing. We have more people than other nations.

Some poster at this site believe this is all a grand conspiracy and post debunked nonsense that floats around the web. We have brilliant microbiologists, immunologists, and epidemiologists who are the people whose opinions are very worthy of respect. 
While economic concerns are serious, we need to recognize that continuing to manage this poorly by prematurely exposing people to infection can lead to the possibility of a more deadly second wave that will affect the economy far more seriously. Those living in areas with relatively few cases are not considering how the exponential growth of cases increases. At the beginning of March, we were aware of only 243 cases in the U.S. We have to move slowly and prudently.

[andr99]

what asthonishes me is that whole europe and america had seen what was happening in italy two months ago and the same.....they were caught by surprise. And still someone think this is just little more than a flu............

[K Wave]

Why do Sweden an NY case and deaths curves look nearly identical then?

 

I do not believe the lock downs accomplished what you think they did...they were done too late.

In order for them to have been actually effective, they would have had to have been done in January, when folks like you were calling Trump a racist for shutting down flights from China.

 

Seriously, who was gonna make that call when we only had a couple of cases at the time?

Please don't make me play back all the media clips poo-pooing the virus at the time when shutdowns would have actually had to be done to be truly effective.

 

Yes, some lives were likely saved by the shutdowns, but the damage was already baked in beforehand...the testing in New York clearly shows this.

But what we gave up was getting quickly to herd immunity, which Sweden nearly has already.

And caused great economic hardship, some of which will be permanent until folks figure what's next for themselves.

 

Maybe that tradeoff was worth it...but maybe not.

 

In any event, this will be done soon, as you will see in the fullness of time.

 

And daily deaths trend is down and will remain down as they approach zero over the next 3-4 weeks.

 

And I'll be the first to eat my words if they don't.

 

I somehow doubt you will do the same....

[An Ant]

A couple of supports that could hold before that number, I personally am fancying 2805 ES, then rally to new highs (but Im pretty flexible here intraday) and there is still a bear case for much lower prices as well.   Lets see how price reacts! 

 

Going to peel back some of these shorts into the Asian open....  And reassess outlook overnight- depending on European reaction to this selloff.

 

New all time high or just recovery high? 30XX? 31XX?

Thanks

[Dex]

 

"Sell the good news?

 

New York in with a 1.004 today...this thing is so done...."

 

NY has the toughest lockdown, which is the reason for the decline. The rest of the U.S. has rising rates of infection and deaths. When NY is removed from the graph showing the levels of infections and deaths, the line is still going up and barely flattening. Now, with some State's restrictions loosened, it will likely rise even more or keep the graph from declining. We have had over 80,000 deaths in 2.5 months. Many more deaths will follow.

 

Among those who survived after being seriously ill, many will have suffered irreparable damage to their lungs, hearts, vascular system, or brain with compromised health and longevity. Now we are seeing children whose lives are endangered and who may also have to live with impaired health. We have yet to learn the full consequences of this illness, its repercussions, and autoimmune reactions that may follow, but many are still not convinced of its seriousness and liken it to the flu or believe that good health and safety practices will render them immune. 

 

Korea learned about the pandemic at the same time that we did, but they took action immediately --testing, quarantining, and contact tracing - and it worked. They saved the lives of their people. We bungled this from the get go and lost at least 2.5 months, hearing nothing but lies and denials and we are paying the price mightily with the lives of over 80,000 and still counting. And, we lost control when we could have and should have had the strongest efforts in place among all nations. Yet we were put to shame by Third World countries who acted more quickly and effectively. 
 

Our healthcare workers have died and STILL, yesterday, a friend who is a nephrologist at a major hospital in Chicago told me that the doctors and nurses cannot be tested unless they need hospitalization -- that they STILL need to self-quarantine if they have symptoms, and they have to reuse masks. They don't have enough tests. Many E.M.S workers have died, and all of them don't have available tests. Finally, now they promise to test people in nursing homes and those healthcare workers who may be spreading the illness. I hope nobody here has a parent or grandparent in a nursing facility. This is the reality. We keep hearing that we've done more testing than other nations, but we have NOT done more per-capita testing. We have more people than other nations.

Some poster at this site believe this is all a grand conspiracy and post debunked nonsense that floats around the web. We have brilliant microbiologists, immunologists, and epidemiologists who are the people whose opinions are very worthy of respect. 
While economic concerns are serious, we need to recognize that continuing to manage this poorly by prematurely exposing people to infection can lead to the possibility of a more deadly second wave that will affect the economy far more seriously. Those living in areas with relatively few cases are not considering how the exponential growth of cases increases. At the beginning of March, we were aware of only 243 cases in the U.S. We have to move slowly and prudently.

 

 

 

https://www.theatlan...-secret/611215/

 

Korea - their advantage goes back the MERS - read article - USA didn't change/learn anything after MERS

Fast Testing

One of the key lessons of MERS was that bending the curve required an accelerated plan for designing, manufacturing, and distributing accurate tests. In the coronavirus pandemic, no large democracy has been better on these counts than South Korea.

 

https://abc7chicago....cases-/6176126/

Chicago - looks like it has testing ability.

Illinois health officials announced 4,014 new cases of COVID-19, including 144 additional deaths, on Tuesday. That brings the statewide total to 83,021, including 3,601 deaths.

[flyers&divers]

 

"Sell the good news?

 

New York in with a 1.004 today...this thing is so done...."

 

NY has the toughest lockdown, which is the reason for the decline. The rest of the U.S. has rising rates of infection and deaths. When NY is removed from the graph showing the levels of infections and deaths, the line is still going up and barely flattening. Now, with some State's restrictions loosened, it will likely rise even more or keep the graph from declining. We have had over 80,000 deaths in 2.5 months. Many more deaths will follow.

 

Among those who survived after being seriously ill, many will have suffered irreparable damage to their lungs, hearts, vascular system, or brain with compromised health and longevity. Now we are seeing children whose lives are endangered and who may also have to live with impaired health. We have yet to learn the full consequences of this illness, its repercussions, and autoimmune reactions that may follow, but many are still not convinced of its seriousness and liken it to the flu or believe that good health and safety practices will render them immune. 

 

Korea learned about the pandemic at the same time that we did, but they took action immediately --testing, quarantining, and contact tracing - and it worked. They saved the lives of their people. We bungled this from the get go and lost at least 2.5 months, hearing nothing but lies and denials and we are paying the price mightily with the lives of over 80,000 and still counting. And, we lost control when we could have and should have had the strongest efforts in place among all nations. Yet we were put to shame by Third World countries who acted more quickly and effectively. 
 

Our healthcare workers have died and STILL, yesterday, a friend who is a nephrologist at a major hospital in Chicago told me that the doctors and nurses cannot be tested unless they need hospitalization -- that they STILL need to self-quarantine if they have symptoms, and they have to reuse masks. They don't have enough tests. Many E.M.S workers have died, and all of them don't have available tests. Finally, now they promise to test people in nursing homes and those healthcare workers who may be spreading the illness. I hope nobody here has a parent or grandparent in a nursing facility. This is the reality. We keep hearing that we've done more testing than other nations, but we have NOT done more per-capita testing. We have more people than other nations.

Some poster at this site believe this is all a grand conspiracy and post debunked nonsense that floats around the web. We have brilliant microbiologists, immunologists, and epidemiologists who are the people whose opinions are very worthy of respect. 
While economic concerns are serious, we need to recognize that continuing to manage this poorly by prematurely exposing people to infection can lead to the possibility of a more deadly second wave that will affect the economy far more seriously. Those living in areas with relatively few cases are not considering how the exponential growth of cases increases. At the beginning of March, we were aware of only 243 cases in the U.S. We have to move slowly and prudently.

 

 

what asthonishes me is that whole europe and america had seen what was happening in italy two months ago and the same.....they were caught by surprise. And still someone think this is just little more than a flu............

....and traders classify it this was a Black Swan event. It is clearly not.

 

My brother and I live in different parts of the East Coast. I live in NYC in Queens in  a zip code that has one of the highest fatality numbers and rates. When I walk to the Post Office they are three 18 wheeler "Thermo King"  refigerated trailers set up on the sidewalk along the small hospital. The hum of compressors keeping the corpses of my neighbors kept on makeshift shelving four rows high cold sends a chill down my spine. In the last 48 hours i have spoken to family members of two different nurses working in different hospitals in the city whose task is to serve patients in the rooms where they are intubated. One of them reported that after working three weeks without a day off he did not have a single patient who survived it. The other one said the minute patients come out of sedation and moaning in pain they have to give them morphine again and their weekend systems can't handle it and they die. According to what hospitals report to the city 88 pct. do not survive and die. This is my reality.

My brother lives in a 98.5 pct non minority zip code in N.Carolina where few people have a realistic view of city living and he and his friends think that this will go away by itself.

Unfortunately lot of our lawmakers are on the same opinion.

 

Give me Romney, give me Biden or someone else but our next president should not be a lowlife.

 

F&D

[claire]

Why do Sweden an NY case and deaths curves look nearly identical then?

 

I do not believe the lock downs accomplished what you think they did...they were done too late.

In order for them to have been actually effective, they would have had to have been done in January, when folks like you were calling Trump a racist for shutting down flights from China.

 

Seriously, who was gonna make that call when we only had a couple of cases at the time?

Please don't make me play back all the media clips poo-pooing the virus at the time when shutdowns would have actually had to be done to be truly effective.

 

Yes, some lives were likely saved by the shutdowns, but the damage was already baked in beforehand...the testing in New York clearly shows this.

But what we gave up was getting quickly to herd immunity, which Sweden nearly has already.

And caused great economic hardship, some of which will be permanent until folks figure what's next for themselves.

 

Maybe that tradeoff was worth it...but maybe not.

 

In any event, this will be done soon, as you will see in the fullness of time.

 

And daily deaths trend is down and will remain down as they approach zero over the next 3-4 weeks.

 

And I'll be the first to eat my words if they don't.

 

I somehow doubt you will do the same....

There were a great many people making that call in January. Virologists and epidemiologist were saying it. Bright was removed from his job for blowing the whistle about it. The WH was warned repeatedly in December and January and all the warnings were ignored and dismissed. Please don't have me play all the media clips showing the warnings that were ignored and the lies following them.

And "folks like me" were saying that shutting the flights from China had limited value because it was already too late and that we should be testing and doing quarantines and tracing immediately as they were doing in China and other Asian nations. In fact, my daughter was at her children's school in February wearing a mask while demonstrating for the urgency to close the schools. I guess that kind of thing is not reported in the media that you view.

 

You keep saying that the death trend is down. It isn't. It's still increasing but at a far less accelerated rate.

 

As for Sweden, they do have more cases and more death per capita than we have and are nowhere near herd immunity which requires at least 66% of the population to have been infected. How many millions of Americans would die before that occurs. We are buying time to learn more about this illness and how it may be treated to reduce deaths and, hopefully, an eventual vaccine for everyone.

 

You keep saying the death trend is down. It isn't. It's still rising but at a far less accelerated rate. I hope you're right and it will just miraculously disappear over the next 3-4 weeks as you predict, but I think that's unlikely and not a gamble I'm willing to take.