25 replies to this topic

[risktaker]

Quoting from this article: https://www.nytimes....oronavirus.html

Sweden shut only its high schools and colleges
...
There is no evidence that Swedes are underplaying the enormity of the disease rampaging across the globe. The countrys leader and health officials have stressed hand washing, social distancing and protecting people over the age of 70 by limiting contact with them.
...
Swedens approach appeals to the publics self-restraint and sense of responsibility, Mr. Tegnell said. Thats the way we work in Sweden. Our whole system for communicable disease control is based on voluntary action. The immunization system is completely voluntary and there is 98 percent coverage, he explained.
You give them the option to do what is best in their lives, he added. That works very well, according to our experience.

[Dex]

Can't we just get along and agree that those who are criticizing Trump for CV were always Trump haters and the perversion of the information around it is another virus - TDD - Trump Derangement Disorder.

 

Those with TDD lose  their ability for logical thinking/reasoning and verbal/written skills finally ending in ad hominem attacks. 

 

At this time there is no vaccine.  But a good nap can help with the symptoms.  

[risktaker]

Claire, thanks for posting! You are very eloquent.

[CHAx]

 

A couple of supports that could hold before that number, I personally am fancying 2805 ES, then rally to new highs (but Im pretty flexible here intraday) and there is still a bear case for much lower prices as well.   Lets see how price reacts! 

 

Going to peel back some of these shorts into the Asian open....  And reassess outlook overnight- depending on European reaction to this selloff.

 

New all time high or just recovery high? 30XX? 31XX?

Thanks

 

 

I meant recovery highs, and yes 30xx, 31xx are both still viable at the moment. 

 

Keep in mind, I trade long/short based upon pivots intraday, so I'm not holding positions for more than a few days at a time (and very often less than that).  Please don't make decisions based off of a *possible* target I'm discussing.  I'm just thinking out loud, looking for feedback, like any other trader.  I've been wrong on my targets quite a bit the last few weeks, but, I've been in tandem with the trend for about 80% of the action.  So what I mean by this is, I'm not getting out at highs or lows, but catching the middle portions of the moves.  This market has surprised me plenty!

Edited by CHAx, 12 May 2020 - 08:03 PM.

[An Ant]

 

 

A couple of supports that could hold before that number, I personally am fancying 2805 ES, then rally to new highs (but Im pretty flexible here intraday) and there is still a bear case for much lower prices as well.   Lets see how price reacts! 

 

Going to peel back some of these shorts into the Asian open....  And reassess outlook overnight- depending on European reaction to this selloff.

 

New all time high or just recovery high? 30XX? 31XX?

Thanks

 

 

I meant recovery highs, and yes 30xx, 31xx are both still viable at the moment. 

 

Keep in mind, I trade long/short based upon pivots intraday, so I'm not holding positions for more than a few days at a time (and very often less than that).  Please don't make decisions based off of a *possible* target I'm discussing.  I'm just thinking out loud, looking for feedback, like any other trader.  I've been wrong on my targets quite a bit the last few weeks, but, I've been in tandem with the trend for about 80% of the action.  So what I mean by this is, I'm not getting out at highs or lows, but catching the middle portions of the moves.  This market has surprised me plenty!

 

 

Thanks.

[K Wave]

Quite the interesting look at the one size fits all approach.....

 

I did not verify it exactly, but just looking at the deaths listed on worldometer, looks like it is likely very close to accurate.

 

Edited by K Wave, 12 May 2020 - 09:40 PM.

[claire]

Claire, thanks for posting! You are very eloquent.

Thank you.  I was reluctant to post opposing what seemed to be the prevalent view at this site and fully expecting an ad hominem attack. I was urged on by the need for truth to be spoken and to correct statements which were inaccurate.

 

It didn't take long for someone who claimed to be opposed to ad hominem attacks to be comfortable, in the same sentence, in using the label Trump Derangement Syndrome for anyone who is justifiably appalled at our current gross mismanagement of this crises and its dreadful toll on this nation.  

 

It's comforting to know that my words were not ignored or maligned by everyone.

[Dex]

 

Claire, thanks for posting! You are very eloquent.

Thank you.  I was reluctant to post opposing what seemed to be the prevalent view at this site and fully expecting an ad hominem attack. I was urged on by the need for truth to be spoken and to correct statements which were inaccurate.

 

It didn't take long for someone who claimed to be opposed to ad hominem attacks to be comfortable, in the same sentence, in using the label Trump Derangement Syndrome for anyone who is justifiably appalled at our current gross mismanagement of this crises and its dreadful toll on this nation.  

 

It's comforting to know that my words were not ignored or maligned by everyone.

 

 

No need to thank me for correcting you errors. 

 

When you think about it isn't that what we are all here to do?  And I don't mean just this forum.  I mean life.  Helping each other is the reason for being.

 

One of my favorite songs.

https://www.youtube....h?v=fhNrqc6yvTU

Edited by Dex, 12 May 2020 - 10:03 PM.

[claire]

Quite the interesting look at the one size fits all approach.....

 

I did not verify it exactly, but just looking at the deaths listed on worldometer, looks like it is likely very close to accurate.

 

And, your point is?

 

I assume you realize that at first, there was another hub of infection in Wunan and it spread to over 150 nations, infecting over 4 million people. It's a pandemic. Right now, they found seven new cases in Wunan and plan to test 11 million people within ten days to stop this from becoming a second wave. Do you think this is excessive? Silly? What would be your strategy to contain a pandemic?

[K Wave]

 

As for Sweden, they do have more cases and more death per capita than we have and are nowhere near herd immunity which requires at least 66% of the population to have been infected. How many millions of Americans would die before that occurs. We are buying time to learn more about this illness and how it may be treated to reduce deaths and, hopefully, an eventual vaccine for everyone.

 

 

 

 

You may find this of interest....or not.

https://judithcurry....r-than-thought/

 

A recent paper (Gomes et al provides the answer. It shows that variation between individuals in their susceptibility to infection and their propensity to infect others can cause the HIT to be much lower than it is in a homogeneous population. Standard simple compartmental epidemic models take no account of such variability.

 

Using a compartmental model modified to take such variability into account, with co-variability between susceptibility and infectivity arguably handled in a more realistic way than by Gomes et al., I confirm their finding that the HIT is indeed reached at a much lower level than when the population is homogeneous. That would explain why the HIT appears to have been passed in Stockholm by mid April. The same seems likely to be the case in other major cities and regions that have been badly affected by COVID-19.

 

In my view, the true herd immunity threshold probably lies somewhere between the 7% and 24% implied by the cases illustrated in Figures 4 and 5. If it were around 17%, which evidence from Stockholm County suggests, the resulting fatalities from infections prior to the HIT being reached should be a very low proportion of the population.

 

 

So essentially it looks like Sweden will have achieved herd immunity before they have to go through next fall/winter at their very far north latitude.

Pretty smart decision on their part I would say. Looks like they will get away with a couple thousand deaths and be good to go.