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SPX 3625 by October, the BULL is back!


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#21 dTraderB

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Posted 06 June 2020 - 06:59 AM

and this one:  

 

Here's the actual level of employment. It would take some audacity to call this a V.

https://twitter.com/...030451718623238



#22 andr99

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Posted 06 June 2020 - 07:45 AM

at some point the stock market will meet again the real economy...........until then enjoy the bull's ride made of toilet paper money and all sorts of financial tricks that a well oiled system can put on the table. When the hard drop comes it will be dramatic, but there's still a lot of money to be done on the bull's side before the end comes. Discussing everyday about how bad real things are is perfectly useless. They have the printing press and we have just to thank them for that because you make more money riding the bull than riding the bear. 


Edited by andr99, 06 June 2020 - 07:49 AM.

forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard


#23 K Wave

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Posted 06 June 2020 - 10:31 AM

and this one:  

 

Here's the actual level of employment. It would take some audacity to call this a V.

https://twitter.com/...030451718623238

The first chart is a V, and 2nd one will be as well with many more weeks under its belt...this was only week 1 of the upturn.

 

Watch what happens when the CARES extra $600 per week expires next month....a lot of couch potatoes going to be scrambling back to work....


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#24 da_cheif

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Posted 06 June 2020 - 12:31 PM

at some point the stock market will meet again the real economy...........until then enjoy the bull's ride made of toilet paper money and all sorts of financial tricks that a well oiled system can put on the table. When the hard drop comes it will be dramatic, but there's still a lot of money to be done on the bull's side before the end comes. Discussing everyday about how bad real things are is perfectly useless. They have the printing press and we have just to thank them for that because you make more money riding the bull than riding the bear. 

actually at some point the economy will meet the stock market at an important top....until then all the whining in the world wont slow it down    ....in the mean time those who listen to the stock market are enjoying the ride....  the hard dramatic drop came and went......6750n0



#25 pdx5

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Posted 06 June 2020 - 05:11 PM

 

 

The first chart is a V, and 2nd one will be as well with many more weeks under its belt...this was only week 1 of the upturn.

 

Watch what happens when the CARES extra $600 per week expires next month....a lot of couch potatoes going to be scrambling back to work....

 

 

Most significant comment of this week...


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#26 dTraderB

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Posted 07 June 2020 - 07:23 AM

The Bull Is Back! Markets Charge As Economy Lags 06-05-20

In this issue of “The Bull Is Back! Markets Charge As Economy Lags”

  • A Note About That Jobs Number
  • Investors Are Too Optimistic
  • Technical Review
  • Portfolio Positioning
  • MacroView: Rationalizing High Valuations Won’t Improve Outcomes
  • Sector & Market Analysis
  • 401k Plan Manager

 

https://realinvestme...-lags-06-05-20/



#27 dTraderB

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Posted 07 June 2020 - 07:25 AM

This is from the link in the post above:

"....Therefore, if we adjust for the labor force, and count the extra 4.9 million people who were “not at work for other reasons,” the “realistic unemployment rate” was 17.1 percent in May.

While that number is down from April, it is still higher than any other unemployment rate in over 70 years. (But the 13.3% number was as well.)

BLS Admits Error And Confirms The Math

From the BLS:

“There were also a large number of workers who were classified as employed but absent from work. As was the case in March and April, household survey interviewers were instructed to classify employed persons absent from work due to coronavirus-related business closures as unemployed on temporary layoff

However, not all such workers were so classified.

If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work…had been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported (on a not seasonally adjusted basis).

In other words, the unemployment rate was 16.3% even using their own data, which suggests the number of unemployed is closer to 26 million.

But this isn’t a new problem suggesting unemployment numbers have been in error for quite some time. To wit from the BLS:

 

“BLS and the Census Bureau are investigating why this misclassification error continues to occur and are taking additional steps to address the issue. However, according to the usual practice, the data from the household survey are accepted as recorded. To maintain data integrity, no ad hoc actions are taken to reclassify survey responses.”

The Missing Millions

Once we assume this error in counting as been prevalent, understanding the massive gap between the BLS numbers and reality begins to crystallize.

Since the beginning of the last economic expansion, the working-age population has grown by 25.3 million while employment has fallen by 1.14 million through May. As the BLS confirms above, there are over 26 million who are “missing” due to the manner in which employment is calculated."



#28 dTraderB

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Posted 07 June 2020 - 07:26 AM

From link the post above:

"

Investors Are Too Optimistic

There are several measures of optimism we can look at which have historically corresponded with short-term market peaks and corrections.

Currently, non-commercial speculators are carrying the one of the largest net-short positions on the S&P 500 in recent history. While such positioning doesn’t necessarily mean the market will crash, it has historically aligned with short-term peaks and bear markets.

SP500-COT-NetShort-060520.png

The total put-call ratio all suggests similar positioning. With investors getting extremely aggressive by buying call options, the ratio is back to more extreme elevations. The last time the put-call ratio was this elevated was in January.

1-7.png

The issue at hand is the markets have priced in a “V-shaped” recovery which is well ahead of what the economic data suggests. Such was seen in Friday’s employment report fiasco."



#29 dTraderB

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Posted 07 June 2020 - 07:30 AM

I hold a similar opinion but not holding back in daytrading LONG NQ in SIZE in a market in bubble mode,

 

not missing out! been there, done that, many times, not sitting

on the sidelines while  easy profits are for the taking with others doing the heavy lifting! 
 

"Technical Review Of The Market

Regardless, the markets are bullish biased and we must be respectful of that reality. As noted in last week’s report:

“No matter how you want to slice the data, the markets are back to more egregious overbought conditions on a short-term basis.”

The break above the 200-dma set the bulls in motion and triggered a parabolic advance in the market over the last week. Given the market is now pushing a 3-standard deviation move to the upside, with indicators very overbought, a short-term corrective action is likely. (Note the market was just 3-standard deviations BELOW the 50-dma in March.)

SP500-Chart1-060520.png

Also,  as noted previously, with 95% of stocks now trading above the 50-dma, such has historically signaled short-term corrections to resolve the overbought conditions. Currently, while the market has been rising, the number of stocks above their 50-dma has stalled at one of the highest levels in a decade. Watch for a deterioration in the percentage to signal an upcoming correction.

SP500-StocksAbove50dma-060520.png

Lastly, all of the overbought/sold indicators have aligned, along with the vast majority of stocks being above the 50-dma. As noted by the red circles below, every measure is in, or exceeding, historical overbought conditions. Such also suggests a correction is likely in the short-term which will provide a better opportunity to increase exposure accordingly.

SP500-OB-OS-060520.png

The Recovery Trade

Lastly, the market has rallied over the past week on “better than expected” economic data which supports hope of a “V-shaped” economic recovery. However, as noted by the Citi Economic Surprise Index, that is likely to change over the next month as data begins to disappoint. Peaks in the surprise index have coincided with short-term corrections, or more, in the market.

Recovery-Trade-060520.png

With “coronavirus cases” likely to rise sharply following Memorial Day celebrations and recent crowded protests, the risk of disappointment has risen.

This has been an exceptionally rally. All of our equity positions are now extremely stretched and overbought. Conversely, all of our hedges VERY oversold."
https://realinvestme...-lags-06-05-20/

Caution is advised.



#30 dTraderB

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Posted 07 June 2020 - 07:32 AM

I still think it is a BEAR MARKET but whether bear market or correction of a bull market is irrelevant in actual trading day to day .... 

 

"The rally this past week now confirms the selloff in March was a “correction” and not a “bear market.” Such has important considerations in allocation models and portfolio positioning.

In corrections, recoveries back to previous highs are the norm as the bullish trend of the market continues. During bear markets, expect rallies to fail and price trends to change to negative. While it certainly seemed that was the case in March, given the severity of the decline, the rapid recovery has changed the narrative.

However, even as we update the risk/reward trading ranges, the probabilities still remain negative. With the market very overbought short-term (orange indicator in the background), downside risk outweighs the upside return in the short-term.

SP500-RiskReward-Ranges-060520.png

With the S&P 500 is now only 5% from all-time highs, all measures are now based against that advance. A breakout to all-time highs, should such occur, will reset all parameters. We have assigned probabilities to pullback ranges short-term.

  • -6.6% to the 200-dma vs. +5% to all-time highs. Negative (70% probability)
  • -11.2% to the 50-dma vs. +5% to all-time highs. Negative (20%)
  • -14.4% to previous consolidation lows vs. +5% to all-time highs. Negative (5%)
  • -18.3% to March bounce peak vs. +5% to all-time highs. Negative (5%)"

https://realinvestme...-lags-06-05-20/