155 replies to this topic

[K Wave]

Here is a look at the Small Trader Net Bull Options Strategy based on the overall total cost in premiums paid and received.  (BTO Calls plus STO Puts) minus (STO Calls plus BTO Puts).  Keep in mind that long term OCC Options data on Equities does not compare apples to apples since in the early years of ETF development any options that were available were included in the equity reports.  Even now with a separate ETF report, Long vs Inverse option trades are not separated.  I'm not sure of the dates, but the last 7-8 years are probably equity only now.  Will show the contract chart next. Note: I'm missing about a year of data in both charts as seen by straight line.

  

Looking at that chart, what I see is that the chart is near the same level that the market absolutely crashed from in Feb.....

 

Whenever I see super record anything, my hackles go up...we 'll see how this one play out.

Still leaning toward bullish resolution of any decline this week, but on alert for anything that flips things in bears favor for longer than that....

 

What do you think is going on?

Looking at premium numbers combined with contract numbers, seems like a ton of cheap out of the money calls must be being bought.

 

My point being that perhaps you cant just look at premium paid in a vacuum...as Feb was record Calls minus Puts in terms of Contracts as well.

What did the contract numbers look like at those prior times when the premium paid WAS a bullish indication....because it certainly was not in Feb. ( and I note it was record low on that chart)

Edited by K Wave, 15 June 2020 - 07:33 AM.

[K Wave]

This chart based on Net Bull contracts traded will certainly draw in more subscribers and get more folks to watch their Youtube shows.  By the way, the COT report was less bullish by 6.6 billion dollars for Commercials, and Non-Commercials added slightly to their net short position by 3000 ES mini contracts for a little over 228K net short which is 7% of the open interest.  Non-Commercials are also net long the big SPX contract by the equivalent of 76,500 ES mini contracts, so that category is really on net short a little over 150K ES min contracts if you want to look at it that way.  SH has redeemed shares almost every day for a month, and overall Inverse shares have redeemed very little even with Thursday's big drop.  A lot of inverse shares have been in single digits for a while now, so the next wave of reverse splits will be announced very soon.  QID is down 99.8% from 2008 and only 2x.

  

That chart looks more predictive than the other one.

 

Whenever it has gone to the upper reaches (nothing ever even close to where it is  now, even pre-crash Feb), it has generally been time for at least a breather, if not something much more sinister, and longer lasting...

 

2014 looks like the only time market managed to just keep on truckin'.

 

And like I said, when things go super duper, probably wise to at least be on the lookout for things may disrupt your otherwise prevailing view.

Edited by K Wave, 15 June 2020 - 07:43 AM.

[12SPX]

 

This chart based on Net Bull contracts traded will certainly draw in more subscribers and get more folks to watch their Youtube shows.  By the way, the COT report was less bullish by 6.6 billion dollars for Commercials, and Non-Commercials added slightly to their net short position by 3000 ES mini contracts for a little over 228K net short which is 7% of the open interest.  Non-Commercials are also net long the big SPX contract by the equivalent of 76,500 ES mini contracts, so that category is really on net short a little over 150K ES min contracts if you want to look at it that way.  SH has redeemed shares almost every day for a month, and overall Inverse shares have redeemed very little even with Thursday's big drop.  A lot of inverse shares have been in single digits for a while now, so the next wave of reverse splits will be announced very soon.  QID is down 99.8% from 2008 and only 2x.

  

That chart looks more predictive than the other one.

 

Whenever it has gone to the upper reaches (nothing ever even close to where it is  now, even pre-crash Feb), it has generally been time for at least a breather, if not something much more sinister, and longer lasting...

 

2014 looks like the only time market managed to just keep on truckin'.

 

And like I said, when things go super duper, probably wise to at least be on the lookout for things may disrupt your otherwise prevailing view.

 

This is what I've been doing for 35 years so know when premiums are getting rich within calls without even having to see a chart but this is very good!  They've basically died going into expiration for this week if that says anything but July's calls will really show their worth starting Wednesday as the real roll over begins.

[K Wave]

YM has made a pretty long run to the hourly 900 and will likely see a decent bounce later today.

 

If that were to actually give way today, then bears may have more firepower than just a small pullback....

[dTraderB]

sell limit PUT order filled 5 lots closed 

 

another order to close 6 puts a bit lower

[K Wave]

RUT 1330 level pretty important...if bears reclaim that, possible rapid rupture...

 

Back above 1380 and bulls can maybe breathe a bit easier...

[dTraderB]

es buy limit filled 2990.5

closed 2 points profit

served its purpose

will reopen lower

 

NQ daytrading focus now

[dTraderB]

es long 2985.5 limit order

[dTraderB]

es long 2985.5 limit order

closed 12 points 

will reopen lower

[12SPX]

Trying a short at 3010, profit stop, 3008!!