41 replies to this topic

[pdx5]

 

 

 

 

Your back must be a wreck playing golf that long. Jack Nicklaus said there are two kinds of golfers, those with bad backs, and those that will have bad backs.

 

 

HAHAHA I have ZERO pain issues anywhere. Not back, not lower back, not knees, not hips.

 

 

Because I was told again and again by fellow golfers, that I had the smoothest swing!

Golf is not about brute force. It is smooth acceleration through contact with the ball.

 

And now I do daily treadmill set 3 deg up-slope, moving at 22 min/mile, 30 minutes every day.

The way I feel physically, I see absolutely no reason to make it to 100. 

But my real goal is to out-do my mom who passed away at age 103.

Just finished mowing my entire lawn with a push mower (not self-propelled)

It is 93 deg outside and high humidity. Just drink lot of water.

At age 85 I might consider getting a riding mower.

Edited by pdx5, 28 June 2020 - 09:21 PM.

[orange]

Regardless, cases are not important. What is important are the number of deaths and the number of hospitalizations. Deaths are in a robust down trend in the US. The CDC reports hospitalizations in a good down trend too, at least in their surveillance network.

Correct. If you want to identify how things are really progressing, deaths and hospitalizations can be used as real metrics which are not skewed by testing rates. Death rates and hospitalizations don't lie, and considering they are much worse than before the shutdown, we can assume more Americans are carrying the virus. Unfortunately there are still US states manipulating the data not to seem as bad as it is.

 

It is worth noting that hospitals are getting better at treating the sick, even while thousands are dying every day.

[salam]

 

Regardless, cases are not important. What is important are the number of deaths and the number of hospitalizations. Deaths are in a robust down trend in the US. The CDC reports hospitalizations in a good down trend too, at least in their surveillance network.

Correct. If you want to identify how things are really progressing, deaths and hospitalizations can be used as real metrics which are not skewed by testing rates. Death rates and hospitalizations don't lie, and considering they are much worse than before the shutdown, we can assume more Americans are carrying the virus. Unfortunately there are still US states manipulating the data not to seem as bad as it is.

 

It is worth noting that hospitals are getting better at treating the sick, even while thousands are dying every day.

 

exactly.....deaths and hospitalisation.

 

i repeat 

 

‘The US curve is not flattening, it’s rising again. 
 

4% of worlds population but over 20% of global recorded mortality.

woeful.
 

with all the wealth and technology, UK, USA and (Brazil’s) response to Covid are total sh*tshows. 
 

the result of political egos’Trumping’ science and medicine.

 

 

.......thousands are still dying every day 

Edited by salam, 29 June 2020 - 05:00 AM.

[traderx]

Salam,You summarized it perfectly in a few words, Excellent.

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i repeat 

 

‘The US curve is not flattening, it’s rising again. 

 

 

 

4% of worlds population but over 20% of global recorded mortality.

woeful.
 

with all the wealth and technology, UK, USA and (Brazil’s) response to Covid are total sh*tshows. 
 

the result of political egos’Trumping’ science and medicine.

 

 

.......thousands are still dying every day 

 

Edited by salam, Today, 06:00 AM.

[OEXCHAOS]

 

2. herd immunity.

 

erm, plenty of evidence that reinfection does occur, so once infected, this does not guarantee reinfection. herd immunity refers more to the majority ...the herd... being immune. No evidence whatsoever that we are anywhere near this.
 

Well, have you looked at NYC data?

They can't even get a bump up in positive tests, let alone hospitalizations and deaths.

https://www1.nyc.gov...Ye7BgI#download

[OEXCHAOS]

 

I can't believe there are still people here who believe number of infections are a bad thing.

Deaths are bad, infections are good. It is called herd immunity.

 

20-26 million infections, and 126,000 deaths is 0.005 ratio of deaths/infections.

 

Looking back, after me and wife came back from cruise on Feb 29th, we both had a dry cough which lasted 2 weeks.

We just ignored it as we do with mild cold symptoms. Knowing how many people from China and East Asia were on the crowded ship, I am beginning to suspect we were infected by covid-19.

 

No wonder I have been doing all sorts of stuff since March, and not getting infected again. I am convinced we both acquired immunity with the mild infection from the cruise.

 

 

Using your numbers, to achieve herd immunity, a total of 231,000,000 would have to be infected, yielding 1,155,000 deaths (over one million more than now) with many hospitals likely overwhelmed. Also, millions more than this number would have their health impacted . 

And, we have to hope that this immunity lasts for longer than a few months. It may for some and not for others. Not enough is understood about this to be able to answer that question now. If immunity doesn't last until there's an effective vaccine, people will be vulnerable to reinfection. There goes your herd-immunity.

 

You'd better start wearing a mask to help keep you safe and to help keep others safe from you if/when you are reinfected.

 

Herd immunity may be happening much more quickly (as NYC's data suggests). This from Dr. Curry's blog, is an interesting discussion of how.

 

https://judithcurry....9NInhVdzCoIttT0

[OEXCHAOS]

 

Regardless, cases are not important. What is important are the number of deaths and the number of hospitalizations. Deaths are in a robust down trend in the US. The CDC reports hospitalizations in a good down trend too, at least in their surveillance network.

Correct. If you want to identify how things are really progressing, deaths and hospitalizations can be used as real metrics which are not skewed by testing rates. Death rates and hospitalizations don't lie, and considering they are much worse than before the shutdown, we can assume more Americans are carrying the virus. Unfortunately there are still US states manipulating the data not to seem as bad as it is.

 

It is worth noting that hospitals are getting better at treating the sick, even while thousands are dying every day.

 

You just said they are much worse, and that is at odds with every bit of data I have, generally.

[K Wave]

 

Cases are overstated because of false positives, sometimes by a lot. So, more testing will give you more discovered cases AND more false positives.

Regardless, cases are not important. What is important are the number of deaths and the number of hospitalizations. Deaths are in a robust down trend in the US. The CDC reports hospitalizations in a good down trend too, at least in their surveillance network.

covidHosp06-27-20.gif

 

 

 

 

I'm sure you're aware that until recently, NY accounted for about half the total cases and deaths in the US. The strict lockdown in NY has reduced those numbers remarkably and helped dramatically to lower the total rate for this nation. Similar restrictions and wearing masks has had a positive impact where similar policies were followed.

Also, there are more false negatives than false positives for the C-19 tests for a variety of reasons, induding faulty use of the swabs by testers, that the virus is in other parts of the body rather than the nose, that the viral load is insufficient to give a positive result, and the timing of the test post infection which can alter the results. A false positive is far less likely.

I agree that we must look at the data in the next few months before we can make any statements about the direction and course of this virus with any better certainty. Meanwhile, we can't draw conclusions based on isolated examples, and some of us need to check our egos in thinking we know more than leading virologists, epidemiologists, and the medical community. With such high stakes, being cautious is prudent. 

 

AGAIN...the lockdown was done way too late in New York to be very effective, and New York has been determined to be the primary source of infection spread in the USA.

 

If what you are saying is true, then New York will see a big surge of cases after they re-open, just like other states that actually did shutdown earlier in the progression than New York did.

I predict right now, that that will not happen, as New York is already approaching herd immunity due to the massive spread before the lockdown.

What we are seeing the other states is a wave of delayed infections that are thankfully much less deadly for a variety of reasons.

Once this re-open wave passes, we are on our way to better times, and in another 4-6 weeks, the rest of the country will look like NY does now, which is essentially DONE except for some mop up duty.

 

Edited by K Wave, 29 June 2020 - 08:42 AM.

[pdx5]

Looking back at my Carnival cruise ending on Feb 29th,

Now I am almost certain, both my stage-4 cancer wife and I acquired mild covid-19 infection on the crowded ship.

.

We both had this dry cough for about 2 weeks after returning from cruise.

We just ignored it like we do with minor colds. Occasional cough, no big deal.

I do not remember such dry cough previously, it was unusual to say the least.

 

Wife was more tired than usual but we chalked it off to her cancer condition.

No fever, no other symptoms.

 

That may explain why I have been doing all normal activities in this tourist town of Saint Augustine,

and never came down sick again with covid-19. It has to be acquired immunity from the mild infection.

[K Wave]

Granted, a weekend day reporting, but AZ just had massive drop in cases just reported.

Far less than last weekend.