1292 replies to this topic

[dougie]

volume in commodity  wave 5s doesnt need to be impressive right?

[dougie]

FYI...Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index at 100%

 

Last time occurred in July '16 saw GDX pull back then rallied to new highs forming divergences (i.e. RSI,  MACD, BPGDM)

thanks for this TIP

[dharma]

lets take a look at dba

step back https://gracelandupd...020jul3dba1.png    this topped in 08 and

has been in a falling wedge ever since

shorter term https://gracelandupd...020jul3dba2.png  we are in a bottoming

pattern. i put on a starter position while back and i am collecting option premiums while i wait for the market to bottom and i add. 

i find that if i have skin in the game it keeps me interested. i know its dead money  but i am willing to wait as i see this as a big opportunity. the fed has assured inflaton/stagflation

on friday the bpgpm  hit 100%  so a top will come over the next 4 weeks or before in the miners. at this point i am willing to sit as i think the miners are still severely undervalued  besides in a lot of cases90% of the move comes in 10% of the time

any way its just a heads up end of july tends to be another weak seasonal time for gold

dharma

i posted this on thursday about bpgpm hitting 100% in the past this condition has lasted 4 weeks before a correction. doesnt 

mean it will happen like that again

its a heads up

dharma

[ryanoo]

 

lets take a look at dba

step back https://gracelandupd...020jul3dba1.png    this topped in 08 and

has been in a falling wedge ever since

shorter term https://gracelandupd...020jul3dba2.png  we are in a bottoming

pattern. i put on a starter position while back and i am collecting option premiums while i wait for the market to bottom and i add. 

i find that if i have skin in the game it keeps me interested. i know its dead money  but i am willing to wait as i see this as a big opportunity. the fed has assured inflaton/stagflation

on friday the bpgpm  hit 100%  so a top will come over the next 4 weeks or before in the miners. at this point i am willing to sit as i think the miners are still severely undervalued  besides in a lot of cases90% of the move comes in 10% of the time

any way its just a heads up end of july tends to be another weak seasonal time for gold

dharma

i posted this on thursday about bpgpm hitting 100% in the past this condition has lasted 4 weeks before a correction. doesnt 

mean it will happen like that again

its a heads up

dharma

 

bpgdm has a short history and once in its entire history it hit 100% when the miners made a brief (6mo) rally from the 2016 bottom.  Interestingly, the recent breakout in miners is breaking the the peak when bpi hit 100% last time.  If bpi was lower than 100% yet price exceeded the level, then it is sort of a neg divergence. agree it's a heads up.  perhaps a correction of the price breakout, maybe not.

[ryanoo]

bpi not yet ob

[senorBS]

 

 

 

 

 

i dont know if anyone is connecting the dots.  the communist takeover of hong kong is huge. its going to have huge 

repercussions, hong kong real estate is some of the most expensive in the world . business is going to be brought to a standstill 

hsbc has a big face in hong kong.  real estate values  are going to plummet . the Brits are thinking of ways to expedite hong kong 

residents citizenship. another slap at the dying eu. gold buying is going to escalate. the mao revolution killed 30-40 million , then the cultural revolution killed another 10 million . the leaders of the revolution in hong kong have disbanded and fled. gold buying as a result of banks running into trouble as a result of hong kong takeover is going to take center 

stage. hong kong has been a center for trade for decades and centuries.  

i titled this thread 3of 3 i am serious . we are there now.  as i said yesterday gdxj was 100 points higher in 11 when gold was at these levels . miners are still blood in the streets.  hello

dharma

ps saw trump on cnbs this morning . yes there will be periods where the economy comes back but the lows will be lower.  a top in the broad market in 21

was looking at the GDXJ longer term charts, a breakout above 50-53 to me suggests fairly clear selling to next major resistance at 95-100, 55-90 looks like what I call a "speed zone" area and wave wise it would be 3 of 3 and IMO that makes sense since the March to May rally was likely wave 1 of bigger 3 (30.5 pts or so), take 1,618 X wave 1 and that equals close to 50 GDXJ points, add that to the mid June wave 2 bottom (near 42) and that gets you to that same 90-95 area. Lots of things IMO coming together nicely. 

 

Senor

 

Silver as I mentioned to Dharma looks headed for a low in early August, so gold and all the miners should be pulled down too. Notice on the silver chart each rally since last year has been lower (green horizontal line) and it never even got to the 2016 high area (turquoise line). 

 

all I can say is I have nice 5-wave daily rallies in GDX/XAU/HUI from mid June to the most recent highs and that was not to new highs for the yr so IMO that is most likely wave 1 of a much larger move higher, I can see at most a 38% retracement of that rally from June 15 but after that I think we go a LOT higher, my dos centavos

 

Senor

 

works out ot 47 25 area on GDXJ

 

I have a feeling, given this mornings strong early upside action, the wave 2 correction after that initial 5 up from June 15 may have ended last week. It seems "easy" to doubt this move (which I like) but the chart patterns IMO from near to longer term all look bullish to me, in fact weekly upside accelerations have a very decent chance to be underway. Of course if we saw a significant downside reversal today with a weak close I may change my tune a bit, but the trends are up and I currently favor the upside by a lot.

 

Senor

 

Looks like an unfolding wave 3 norte IMO, gold closes near highs and silver not far away with miners coming back up after an intraday selloff attempt. IMO just a "day in the life" of an ongoing bull mkt. As always anything can happen so DYODD

 

Senor

[ryanoo]

an interesting interview on silver, LT

 

miners forming handle from mid may throughout june, slv forming handle for the entire month of june, both right at pivot.  either break up or not, will see soon.

Edited by ryanoo, 06 July 2020 - 03:04 PM.

[K Wave]

Liking the action in PL.

 

If it can clear and hold 860, bulls may be finally ready to start running in the streets there...

[ryanoo]

3 here is stronger than 2, weaker than 1 me think.

[ryanoo]

G4 virus can become a pandemic, they say it has possibly started to spread.