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What Could End This Rally?


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#1 MikeyG

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Posted 02 July 2020 - 09:47 PM

Biden.


https://www.google.c...s-in-polls.html

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#2 MikeyG

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Posted 02 July 2020 - 09:48 PM

Good polls today out of Arizona for Trump and good job numbers. Market goes up.

Coincidence?

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#3 flyers&divers

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Posted 02 July 2020 - 11:53 PM

I have been continuously amazed that the growing prospect of the president not winning reelection is still not a major market topic.

 

He won with thin margins and since then there have been major shifts in demographics, he angered legions of people plus the pandemic.

His core supporters make for a smaller slice of the pie then before the last election.

In my book he has less then 3 pct chance of being reelected. 

 

While Biden looks like a centrist his administration will be a big net negative for the market.

So why is the market not weaker?

The answer is that the market is focusing on something more important which we small people are not aware of.

What is it?

 

Btw: an interesting read on private equity which will get a closer look after the election: 

https://www.nytimes....pgtype=Homepage

 

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#4 SemiBizz

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Posted 03 July 2020 - 12:05 AM

Obviously, as soon as the pandemic winds down, then the market will crash

 

In the meantime as long as the numbers keep climbing, as you can see, market goes up every day.


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#5 orange

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Posted 03 July 2020 - 04:04 AM

I've read somewhere that when the market declines leading up to the presidential election, it means the market is anticipating a loss for the incumbent. I don't believe Biden will be bad for stocks, but I would be concerned with Democrats being less loose with the national debt. Biden has talked about increasing taxes for the wealthy. It makes sense given 3.7 trillion was funneled to companies and the wealthy leaving the middle class to foot the bill since companies don't pay taxes anymore. Trump has always wanted a weak dollar to help prop up the markets. I'm not sure where Biden sits on this.

 

I'm curious to see the results of this years census.


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#6 pdx5

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Posted 03 July 2020 - 11:17 AM

I've read somewhere that when the market declines leading up to the presidential election, it means the market is anticipating a loss for the incumbent. I don't believe Biden will be bad for stocks, but I would be concerned with Democrats being less loose with the national debt. Biden has talked about increasing taxes for the wealthy. It makes sense given 3.7 trillion was funneled to companies and the wealthy leaving the middle class to foot the bill since companies don't pay taxes anymore. Trump has always wanted a weak dollar to help prop up the markets. I'm not sure where Biden sits on this.

 

I'm curious to see the results of this years census.

The biggest concern I have with Biden is he has benefited a lot through his son and all from China. If Biden wins, middle class manufacturing jobs will all be gone very fast. Other than that, I can deal with a Biden presidency. I can deal with tax increases. I can deal with expanding Obamacare. I can deal with increased regulations on small & medium businesses. I can deal with more amnesty for illegals. I can even deal with more immigrants coming in to take jobs from Americans.

 

Because of the simple reason I am retired for 23 years and don't need a job, I do not run a small or medium size business, bringing  in more cheap foreign labor can reduce my cost of living.

 

Yesterday I was watching Fox Business channel, and there was some professor guest there, whose election model has correctly predicted 24/26  of last presidential winners. That is more than 100 years of data. His model is predicting 87% chance for Trump to win re-election. His model ignores polls. Instead it relies on results of primaries before the nominee is selected. FWIW.


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#7 Dex

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Posted 03 July 2020 - 11:25 AM

 

- Potential virus vaccine trials fails - 1 has so far.

- European Trade Talks, Tariffs worries

- Virus close down fears rise, governors tighten up in some states, hospitals get near max 

- China trade talks go nowhere

- North Korea heats up

- Fear of Trump loss

- Opening euphoria subsides

- Island reversal in most indexes

- Business bankruptcies surprise

- Business delay opening or close

- Initial uptick in retail shopping/eating goes away. 

- Iran


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#8 pdx5

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Posted 03 July 2020 - 02:46 PM

 

 

 

- Potential virus vaccine trials fails - 1 has so far.

- European Trade Talks, Tariffs worries

- Virus close down fears rise, governors tighten up in some states, hospitals get near max 

- China trade talks go nowhere

- North Korea heats up

- Fear of Trump loss

- Opening euphoria subsides

- Island reversal in most indexes

- Business bankruptcies surprise

- Business delay opening or close

- Initial uptick in retail shopping/eating goes away. 

- Iran

 

To use Da_Cheif's vernacular, "don't you know anything?"

 

The market climbs on a wall of worry!!!


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#9 risktaker

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Posted 03 July 2020 - 03:16 PM

Trump presidency in charts...

S&P500 (M2 adjusted)
A8-D5246-C-14-D2-4-B5-A-9961-A82-BCD1-DF

Nasdaq (M2 adjusted)
016-F2-C21-F9-ED-45-AB-97-A4-CEDF7259-C6

Compared to other presidents...

S&P500 (M2 adjusted)
91-CE961-A-F02-F-4385-8-C90-ED40-B336-B4

Nasdaq (M2 adjusted)
74440-D1-C-C3-C6-409-A-B017-EEA69-D94-D0

Disclaimer: I am politically neutral, but definitely not into another Trump presidency.

#10 pdx5

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Posted 03 July 2020 - 03:57 PM

 

Disclaimer: I am politically neutral, but definitely not into another Trump presidency.

 

One professor on Fox Business channel said yesterday that,

his college of political science has an election win model they have used for over 100 years and has predicted correctly the winner in 24/26 presidential elections. That model is showing Trump's chances of winning re-election at 87%. That model correctly predicted the winner in 2016, which very few experts did.

 

Personally it does not matter who wins in 2020, because I will still have to make my own money in stock market.

And neither Trump or Biden is likely to send me a birthday  cake on my next birthday (81st).


Edited by pdx5, 03 July 2020 - 04:01 PM.

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