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What Could End This Rally?


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#11 risktaker

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Posted 03 July 2020 - 06:43 PM

pdx5, vote for Biden!

I am using my cellphone, so my charts are crap.

The Nasdaq (M2 adjusted) chart is missing some data, so here is a non-log version:

6-EDA57-EE-F773-4671-89-B6-24774166-E1-D

#12 MikeyG

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Posted 04 July 2020 - 03:36 AM

I think the biggest risk to Biden is at 77 soon to be 78 years old, he could be a figure head and beholden to the energy of the party-- the far left.

They hate capitalism and want a new system/country.

Edited by MikeyG, 04 July 2020 - 03:39 AM.

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#13 risktaker

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Posted 04 July 2020 - 04:46 AM

Happy July 4th! I have no idea how to convince you that I am okay with Trump defecting to Russia over remaining here as absolute authority.

#14 Dex

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Posted 04 July 2020 - 10:36 AM

Happy July 4th! I have no idea how to convince you that I am okay with Trump defecting to Russia over remaining here as absolute authority.

 

That is expected.

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#15 Dex

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Posted 04 July 2020 - 10:50 AM

 

 

- Potential virus vaccine trials fails - 1 has so far.

- European Trade Talks, Tariffs worries

- Virus close down fears rise, governors tighten up in some states, hospitals get near max 

- China trade talks go nowhere

- North Korea heats up

- Fear of Trump loss

- Opening euphoria subsides

- Island reversal in most indexes

- Business bankruptcies surprise

- Business delay opening or close

- Initial uptick in retail shopping/eating goes away. 

- Iran

 

- Add Trump gets sick - in hospital for weeks/months?

- Add Trump dies from virus

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#16 SemiBizz

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Posted 04 July 2020 - 12:01 PM

In the end, they are going to find out a HUGE PERCENTAGE of the population has been exposed to this virus with no symptoms.

 

It's clear who is most vulnerable to this disease.

 

Sick and Elderly.


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#17 claire

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Posted 05 July 2020 - 11:49 AM

OK, so let's assume that these folks will die in the next 5 or 10 years anyway - no biggie. Let's consider how many people under age 20 have just two among the many conditions that make them more vulnerable to C-19.

 

There are 420,000 childhood cancer survivors in the U.S

 

About 210,00 Americans under age 20 have diagnosed diabetes Type I. This represents only 5% of the total number of those with diabetes. 95% have type II diabetes (34.2 million or 10.5% of the population).

 

There's an estimated 10 million people with compromised immune systems in the US. 

 

75% of all patients with all primary immune deficiencies in the US are under 44 years old. Only 5 percent are over age 65. These are the stats for those with comparatively rare genetic disorders. The total number of these are 50,000.

 

9% of adults hospitalized for C-19 had no known preexisting condition that would make them vulnerable.

 

Further, current evidence seems to indicate that as much as 5%-10% of those infected, including those who were never hospitalized and with "mild" initial symptoms, have not recovered since infected. They are beset with a broad variety of symptoms with repeated flare up that are disabling and may indicate on-going damage to any of their organs as well as the Central Nervous system. 

There's a great deal that is not yet understood and not at all clear about this illness and its consequences. Be mindful of what you don't know. Beliefs and opinions are not evidence. 



#18 Dex

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Posted 05 July 2020 - 12:24 PM

OK, so let's assume that these folks will die in the next 5 or 10 years anyway - no biggie. Let's consider how many people under age 20 have just two among the many conditions that make them more vulnerable to C-19.

 

There are 420,000 childhood cancer survivors in the U.S

 

About 210,00 Americans under age 20 have diagnosed diabetes Type I. This represents only 5% of the total number of those with diabetes. 95% have type II diabetes (34.2 million or 10.5% of the population).

 

There's an estimated 10 million people with compromised immune systems in the US. 

 

75% of all patients with all primary immune deficiencies in the US are under 44 years old. Only 5 percent are over age 65. These are the stats for those with comparatively rare genetic disorders. The total number of these are 50,000.

 

9% of adults hospitalized for C-19 had no known preexisting condition that would make them vulnerable.

 

Further, current evidence seems to indicate that as much as 5%-10% of those infected, including those who were never hospitalized and with "mild" initial symptoms, have not recovered since infected. They are beset with a broad variety of symptoms with repeated flare up that are disabling and may indicate on-going damage to any of their organs as well as the Central Nervous system. 

There's a great deal that is not yet understood and not at all clear about this illness and its consequences. Be mindful of what you don't know. Beliefs and opinions are not evidence. 

 

All your posts have been about the virus.  You may want to consider if you are obsessing about it.

 

https://www.traders-...ctivity&mid=189

 

https://medium.com/@...er-1f072fdaf840

 

Coronavirus Anxiety Scale: A brief mental health screener for COVID-19 related anxiety

https://www.tandfonl...87.2020.1748481


Edited by Dex, 05 July 2020 - 12:26 PM.

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#19 diogenes227

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Posted 05 July 2020 - 01:44 PM

OK, so let's assume that these folks will die in the next 5 or 10 years anyway - no biggie. Let's consider how many people under age 20 have just two among the many conditions that make them more vulnerable to C-19.

 

There are 420,000 childhood cancer survivors in the U.S

 

About 210,00 Americans under age 20 have diagnosed diabetes Type I. This represents only 5% of the total number of those with diabetes. 95% have type II diabetes (34.2 million or 10.5% of the population).

 

There's an estimated 10 million people with compromised immune systems in the US. 

 

75% of all patients with all primary immune deficiencies in the US are under 44 years old. Only 5 percent are over age 65. These are the stats for those with comparatively rare genetic disorders. The total number of these are 50,000.

 

9% of adults hospitalized for C-19 had no known preexisting condition that would make them vulnerable.

 

Further, current evidence seems to indicate that as much as 5%-10% of those infected, including those who were never hospitalized and with "mild" initial symptoms, have not recovered since infected. They are beset with a broad variety of symptoms with repeated flare up that are disabling and may indicate on-going damage to any of their organs as well as the Central Nervous system. 

There's a great deal that is not yet understood and not at all clear about this illness and its consequences. Be mindful of what you don't know. Beliefs and opinions are not evidence. 

Some days you make me sad.

 

Not because your numbers are so telling but because you are beating your head against a brick wall of stupid Trump adoration. On this site two plus two equals three, and if instead, as you suggest, it's obviously closer to 330 million, well, that's just dandy because that's "herd immunity" and like the common cold, Covid-19 will soon be no more than an annoying discomfort.

 

Every country in the world is kicking the virus' butt, getting the numbers down to levels they can control and actually reopen safely, but in the US, as the response to the virus is botched again and again, the White House is reportedly crafting a new more succinct message, writ in blood:

 

'WE NEED TO LIVE WITH IT'

 

That's called making America great again.

 

They should be calling it "WE NEED TO DIE WITH IT" because who cares if all those susceptible die. Certainly no one here has a son or daughter or grandparents or older siblings who might be susceptible. And if they do, they don't care because the stock market is making highs, not because of earnings or investment in infrastructure and manufacturing, or America being great, but instead thanks to low-interest debt and seven trillion dollars in funny money from the Fed.

 

Across the country the too-early reopenings have the virus numbers are rocketing. Trump's buddy in Texas is beginning to look desperate. The Arizona Governor is crumbling bit by bit under the weight of a lack of hospital beds and a rising death toll. It is said Trump will not longer participate in any Coronavirus briefings (we'll see how long that lasts) so it's possible someone has gotten it through his head he needs to shut up the on his disinfectant science palaver or he's toast. He'll go on, of course, spewing it to his dwindling followers. Dwindling? Forget the clever Tik-tok prank his campaign embraced, has anyone asked why 13,000 real people did not show up at the his Covid-19 arena in Tulsa? Could it be they figured finally he was just not worth the risk?

 

By November, the death toll could be so high, the health-care system so broken down, small business so bankrupt and even big business staggering as supply-chains break down, even Herbert Hoover will look like an economic super-star. And if elementary schools can't reopen (the teachers either died or Trump and the McConnell and the Republicans ignored Nancy and did not come up with a way to save the state and city governments or it's just too goddamn dangerous)...well those millions and millions of parents will just have to live with it.

 

But football could be canceled. FOOTBALL?!

 

What could end this rally?

 

Reality sets in.


Edited by diogenes227, 05 July 2020 - 01:47 PM.

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#20 Dex

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Posted 05 July 2020 - 01:56 PM

 

OK, so let's assume that these folks will die in the next 5 or 10 years anyway - no biggie. Let's consider how many people under age 20 have just two among the many conditions that make them more vulnerable to C-19.

 

There are 420,000 childhood cancer survivors in the U.S

 

About 210,00 Americans under age 20 have diagnosed diabetes Type I. This represents only 5% of the total number of those with diabetes. 95% have type II diabetes (34.2 million or 10.5% of the population).

 

There's an estimated 10 million people with compromised immune systems in the US. 

 

75% of all patients with all primary immune deficiencies in the US are under 44 years old. Only 5 percent are over age 65. These are the stats for those with comparatively rare genetic disorders. The total number of these are 50,000.

 

9% of adults hospitalized for C-19 had no known preexisting condition that would make them vulnerable.

 

Further, current evidence seems to indicate that as much as 5%-10% of those infected, including those who were never hospitalized and with "mild" initial symptoms, have not recovered since infected. They are beset with a broad variety of symptoms with repeated flare up that are disabling and may indicate on-going damage to any of their organs as well as the Central Nervous system. 

There's a great deal that is not yet understood and not at all clear about this illness and its consequences. Be mindful of what you don't know. Beliefs and opinions are not evidence. 

Some days you make me sad.

 

Not because your numbers are so telling but because you are beating your head against a brick wall of stupid Trump adoration. 

 

 

Claire has demonstrated symptoms of TDS in previous posts, so no adoration.


Edited by Dex, 05 July 2020 - 01:57 PM.

"The secret of life is honesty and fair dealing. If you can fake that, you've got it made. "
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