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early virus control in states and present


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#1 traderx

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Posted 05 July 2020 - 08:41 AM

Early virus  problems in states were mainly  in Northeast states of our country.

That was a time when we knew very little about the virus.

The reason that it has been controlled in those states is not because it peaked,  nor herd immunity.

It was because of the governors leadership smartly leading.

 

Now many other states have lots more valuable information, and it  gets worse every day.

Austin Texas mayor says his city is 10 days away from catastrophe.

.Florida governor just said he will keep state open.

 

The problems in those states  are obvious. Opened up states too fast, not wearing masks, not enough stay in place, not enough contact tracing. Need to get strict not loosen up.

 

Business and jobs are very important for lives and health,  but sickness and death might be more important.

 



#2 entre

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Posted 05 July 2020 - 10:13 AM

I think herd immunity among super-spreaders who are in contact with lots of other people is the key.  60-70% herd immunity models wrongly assume uniform spreading potential when a minority of infected people are doing the majority of the spreading.  I think that's why New York topped out around a 20% infection rate.  If I'm right, the real wave 2 in New York and other states will start once the antibodies wear off.  Antibodies that herd immunity is based on, may only last 6-12 months.



#3 claire

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Posted 05 July 2020 - 10:50 AM

I think herd immunity among super-spreaders who are in contact with lots of other people is the key.  60-70% herd immunity models wrongly assume uniform spreading potential when a minority of infected people are doing the majority of the spreading.  I think that's why New York topped out around a 20% infection rate.  If I'm right, the real wave 2 in New York and other states will start once the antibodies wear off.  Antibodies that herd immunity is based on, may only last 6-12 months.

 

Let's assume that your speculation is correct. What's the remedy? How do you stop the "super-spreaders?"

 

Or, are your proposing that 20% of Americans need to be infected before we end wave 1? Do the math. How many infections does that mean? How many deaths? FOR WAVE 1? 



#4 entre

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Posted 05 July 2020 - 04:01 PM

I found the New York article: 13.9% statewide, 16.7% in Long Island, 21.2% in New York City:

https://www.newsday....york-1.44047680

 

First I would add Zinc to HCQ and change the macrolide from Azythromycin to Doxycycline to reduce heart risks, so HCQ+Zinc+Doxycycline:

https://nypost.com/2...id-19-patients/

https://news.yahoo.c...-215732283.html

 

Then I would try to get the above treatment to people faster.  Right now, there's the 5 day average asymptomatic period after infection, then another 1-2 days to get the second symptom to qualify to take the Covid-19 test, then another day to get the test results, then hospital admittance.  That's too long for the virus to replicate uninhibited, especially for older people.

 

Then I would order studies and clinical trials on boiling water steam inhalation on the very day of exposure.  I myself inhale steamed air for 15 minutes after I return from food shopping or any other public place with plenty of people.  I've used gym saunas before, so I figure if air in my nose doesn't feel hotter than a gym sauna then I'm not risking damaging my nasal tissue lining.  There have been unsuccessful steam inhalation trials for common colds, so I figure for it to have a chance of working partially (reducing the viral load) or completely (not getting the 1000 particles needed for infection https://www.govtech....-explained.html ), then I can't afford to wait till after the virus spreads into deeper nasal passages and beyond which are harder for steamed air to reach.  Then I'd find coronavirus party college students to test out steam inhalation: https://www.zerohedg...l-their-friends

 

I would also like to eventually be able to test asymptomatic people who are in clusters and who are willing to be tested, such as nursing homes, high-density housing, beaches and other large outdoor gatherings, public transportation, meat processor plants, prisons, etc.  I don't like waiting for herd immunity and want to get ahead of the curve more.  With any luck, the time gap between the end of Wave 1 and beginning of Wave 2 can be used to be better prepared.


Edited by entre, 05 July 2020 - 04:09 PM.


#5 .Blizzard

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Posted 05 July 2020 - 04:18 PM

Stop testing is the solution. Deaths/New Cases ratio is very low

Stop wearing surgical masks (because only FFP2 mask avoid the risk)

Get back to normal as soon as possible. The virus will disappear in any case.

 

Italy is still the fourth country with the largest number of deaths, despite the very high number of new cases around the world

In Italy there are now ONLY 74 ICU patients. That's ridiculous!

 

The virus is NOW less lethal than a common influence

Take a look at the numbers guys.

 

pliz


Edited by .Blizzard, 05 July 2020 - 04:20 PM.

 
 
 


#6 traderx

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Posted 05 July 2020 - 05:01 PM

35 states virus out of control

many showing parties in beaches and lakes

all is fine herd immunity fans say

herd immunity for whole country sooooooon

so nothing to worry about herd immunity will save our whole countryyyyyyyy

 

are you serious?



#7 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 06 July 2020 - 07:56 AM

Unless the hospitals are being overwhelmed, there's really nothing to be concerned about.

I also note that a lot of places are doing massive testing. This is going to spike the reported cases, even if there no new cases simply because of false positives (at least with some of these tests). If the tests are accurate, they'll still have a good number of false positives and they're simply going to be finding more cases. I'd be somewhat concerned if the percentage of positives was spiking for some in-obvious reason. But otherwise, I'd just keep an eye on daily deaths and hospital utilization.

BTW, this link is a great resource for getting a quick and dirty read on things, especially on a state specific level. The only caveat is that I'm not clear on how current their data is. It seems pretty good, but...

 

https://covidusa.net/


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#8 K Wave

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Posted 06 July 2020 - 08:14 AM

I think a number of folks are about to be real surprised when the USA curves look extremely similar to Sweden within a few weeks.

 

Massive ramp in cases and deaths just Keep on Truckin' downside...was obvious outcome if you were paying attention AT ALL to the myriad of factors driving the curves.

 

The case rampola ended last week. Sweden is effectively done now...USA close behind....

 

swe.png


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#9 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 06 July 2020 - 01:02 PM

I think herd immunity among super-spreaders who are in contact with lots of other people is the key.  60-70% herd immunity models wrongly assume uniform spreading potential when a minority of infected people are doing the majority of the spreading.  I think that's why New York topped out around a 20% infection rate.  If I'm right, the real wave 2 in New York and other states will start once the antibodies wear off.  Antibodies that herd immunity is based on, may only last 6-12 months.

Check out NYC's numbers. Frankly, they seem to be telling us something.

https://www1.nyc.gov...Ye7BgI#download


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#10 pdx5

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Posted 06 July 2020 - 05:08 PM

 

That is a heck of a good link. Thanks for posting it.

But those crying "wolf" will not bother to read data at that link.

It almost looks like they want to country to suffer more deaths from covid-19.

They are ignoring the fast dropping ratio of deaths/infections. 

As you said, many positive test results are false positives.

Deaths are flattening out faster than a bad soufle.


Edited by pdx5, 06 July 2020 - 05:11 PM.

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