15 replies to this topic

[Darris]

The $SKEW indicator spiked last week to 148 so that is a potential warning sign.  In 2017 we had some dips when it spiked, but a lot of the elevator drops the last 3 years have seen high skew readings weeks in advance.  If you want a guess, pay attn around July 30th FED speak mtg this month.  Timing about right.

[CLK]

Can't believe ERX is not going up today, I have a decent position still in calls, it was up to 23 at FOMC highs, it's

doing nothing today.

[Darris]

Yes, weak ERX/XLE.  Neither have even produced a basic EMA cross over hourly buy in the last week.  Including today, last 3 are all gap ups and crap.

[Darris]

The relative FEAR index for the CBOE put call ratio from Nov 1999 until early April 2000, 111 trading days before the April 10th 500 pt NDX swing day, was 64% which is high.  Today, 72 days after the closing low, the average is still in PANIC zone at 10.4%.  Remember "OGM" little green avatar that had PANIC on it, LOL.  Any type of price PEAK is not even in view at the present time.  PANIC, FEAR, Neutral, GREED is the cycle.  The 95 days prior to Feb 19th 2020 high the FEAR index was at  66.3% and that count started after the Oct 3rd 2019 low was put in.  During this same 95 day period the CPCE and VXST Fear meter showed much more GREED at 76.2%.  Today this 72 day average is 17.3%.  These tools have pin pointed the last 5 exact swing closing lows.  The last one only 5 days ago on June 26th for Russell rebalance at SPX 3009 saw the ES low early Sunday night June 28th and from that low to the high we printed a few hours ago is right at 200 ES points.  A day of rest tomorrow would be most welcome while we approach the Wednesday before the monthly expiry here in a couple of days.  I do not know how DBTrader trades and posts all day long.  I am exhausted after just a few posts for one day, LOL.  Inverse share shorting continues to ramp up.  COT report is showing big drops in net long exposure, but there was still no data for the $250 big SPX contract this week.  Any softness/consolidation into 2:30pm Wed afternoon is a buy as we should see massive buying pick up again Thurs/Fri/ and Mon next week.

[12SPX]

The relative FEAR index for the CBOE put call ratio from Nov 1999 until early April 2000, 111 trading days before the April 10th 500 pt NDX swing day, was 64% which is high.  Today, 72 days after the closing low, the average is still in PANIC zone at 10.4%.  Remember "OGM" little green avatar that had PANIC on it, LOL.  Any type of price PEAK is not even in view at the present time.  PANIC, FEAR, Neutral, GREED is the cycle.  The 95 days prior to Feb 19th 2020 high the FEAR index was at  66.3% and that count started after the Oct 3rd 2019 low was put in.  During this same 95 day period the CPCE and VXST Fear meter showed much more GREED at 76.2%.  Today this 72 day average is 17.3%.  These tools have pin pointed the last 5 exact swing closing lows.  The last one only 5 days ago on June 26th for Russell rebalance at SPX 3009 saw the ES low early Sunday night June 28th and from that low to the high we printed a few hours ago is right at 200 ES points.  A day of rest tomorrow would be most welcome while we approach the Wednesday before the monthly expiry here in a couple of days.  I do not know how DBTrader trades and posts all day long.  I am exhausted after just a few posts for one day, LOL.  Inverse share shorting continues to ramp up.  COT report is showing big drops in net long exposure, but there was still no data for the $250 big SPX contract this week.  Any softness/consolidation into 2:30pm Wed afternoon is a buy as we should see massive buying pick up again Thurs/Fri/ and Mon next week.

I'm surprised that this expiration cycle has remained higher as my numbers had shown it would be flat to down so we'll see in the end.   Funny you mention d, I've never put up my day trading stuff on here but have been enjoying lately as its kept me focused, don't want to show a loss lol!! 

[Darris]

I agree, it is exciting to see productive swings for Day Trading again.  Apparently the new whiz kids have figured out how to see what Institutions and Dealers are having to do with managing their Index/Equity Option exposure by monitoring Gamma and Vanna, LOL.  The grinds up and elevator drops make perfect sense with the BTFDs inbetween.