12 replies to this topic

[slupert]

With all kinds of fancy lines and  stuff. Remember yesterday I said I was watching the $VIX. That's why I went short. Yesterday the market gapped up and the bulls were all giddy, The $vix retreated below its 200 day MA,  then closed back above the 200 with a long tailed hammer. On a 400 point up day, I knew what was coming next.  http://schrts.co/UeXBPded

[Waver]

Good call!

[Darris]

Nice job!!  RUT number of stocks over 50 day MA confirmed a sell, or watch very closely today, as it went below 50%.

[pdx5]

The market gains yesterday were out of line.

 

The Dow gained 459.67 points, or 1.8%, to 26,287.03 on Monday, while the S&P 500 rose 1.6% to 3179.72, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.2% to 10433.65, a new record high.

 

Considering SP500 gains about 7% per year very long term, 1.8% gain yesterday is equivalent to 3 months worth of average gain in one day! Laughable even in parabolic markets.

 

Short term/day traders should go short the next day when such outsized moves occur. Today SP500 lost 1.08%, a little steeper than 50% normal drop of 0.9%, but not by much. If any long term traders expect market to gain 1%+ day after day should stop smoking ganja.

 

I see nothing out of the ordinary in market action today, since SP500 was up 5 days in a row, which by itself was unusual. Everybody here knows markets seldom move in a straight line.

Edited by pdx5, 07 July 2020 - 05:19 PM.

[CLK]

With all kinds of fancy lines and  stuff. Remember yesterday I said I was watching the $VIX. That's why I went short. Yesterday the market gapped up and the bulls were all giddy, The $vix retreated below its 200 day MA,  then closed back above the 200 with a long tailed hammer. On a 400 point up day, I knew what was coming next.  http://schrts.co/UeXBPded

 

 

My guess is you think this is the start of a bigger move down and remain short for that.

[CLK]

The market gains yesterday were out of line.

 

The Dow gained 459.67 points, or 1.8%, to 26,287.03 on Monday, while the S&P 500 rose 1.6% to 3179.72, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.2% to 10433.65, a new record high.

 

Considering SP500 gains about 7% per year very long term, 1.8% gain yesterday is equivalent to 3 months worth of average gain in one day! Laughable even in parabolic markets.

 

Short term/day traders should go short the next day when such outsized moves occur. Today SP500 lost 1.08%, a little steeper than 50% normal drop of 0.9%, but not by much. If any long term traders expect market to gain 1%+ day after day should stop smoking ganja.

 

I see nothing out of the ordinary in market action today, since SP500 was up 5 days in a row, which by itself was unusual. Everybody here knows markets seldom move in a straight line.

 

 

Leaving the May consolidation there were 11 days up with only one small down doji into the top.

A 1.8% day out of a month long consolidation is not worth fading.

 

 

Daily MACD just crossed, that was the retest, going higher now.

Edited by CLK, 07 July 2020 - 06:06 PM.

[Russ]

VXN has a signal on it for a high in early August and vxn spiked low last week earlier than vix. Silver also has a signal for a low in early August. 

 

 

[Darris]

The market gains yesterday were out of line.

 

The Dow gained 459.67 points, or 1.8%, to 26,287.03 on Monday, while the S&P 500 rose 1.6% to 3179.72, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.2% to 10433.65, a new record high.

 

Considering SP500 gains about 7% per year very long term, 1.8% gain yesterday is equivalent to 3 months worth of average gain in one day! Laughable even in parabolic markets.

 

Short term/day traders should go short the next day when such outsized moves occur. Today SP500 lost 1.08%, a little steeper than 50% normal drop of 0.9%, but not by much. If any long term traders expect market to gain 1%+ day after day should stop smoking ganja.

 

I see nothing out of the ordinary in market action today, since SP500 was up 5 days in a row, which by itself was unusual. Everybody here knows markets seldom move in a straight line.

In the last 25 years we have seen the SPX up 5 or more consecutive days 205 times, and a few days later the SPX was negative 71 times and the rest positive.  Basically no better than a random day in the stock market since most days are up 60% of the time anyway.  Context always wins out when you deep dive back tests.  Institutional investors have made the statement that they have been forced to re-long the market, and it is only a matter of time before they start shorting Volatility to enhance their yield further.  Nobody is going to be sending out quarterly reports with a big cash pile on the books.  No where else to go but FANGM stocks, and if earnings are bad, just buy more.

[pdx5]

Darris, 

I hope the market (SP500) will be slightly higher next January 2021 than it is now.

That would reach my target and I will be getting off the rat race for good at age 80.

The election coming up is scaring me. May be market will not care who wins.

I see opinions all over the map on that issue.

[Darris]

Here is the map.  Dex posted the same set up yesterday with his chart.  The weekly 10ema/50ema is basically the same thing as the 50 day and 200 day.  The 10e is well abv the 50 e right now, so as we approach spx 3250-3325 that would be the time to pull the trigger, and hopefully at the August monthly expiry the 21st.  Then just reload around Tgiving or 1st week of December.  50% profit in a year.  Thank J POW when you pay your capital gain tax bill in 2023.