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#11 claire

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Posted 12 July 2020 - 12:35 AM

 

 

Having spent first 20 years of my life in virus infested India (population density 12 times USA), I have seen viruses come and viruses go. I came down with small pox virus at age 8.. It was a serious infectious disease caused by the variola virus. It was contagious—meaning, it spread from one person to another. People who had smallpox had a fever and a distinctive, progressive skin rash. Most people with smallpox recovered, but about 3 out of every 10 people with the disease died. Comparatively covid-19 is a pussy cat.

 

Imagine 30% mortality rate! Yet no one panicked. My mom nursed me back to health. She later told me I was hanging on to life by a thread with excruciatingly high fever and puss filled eruptions all over my 8 year old body. There was no shutdown, I was quarantined to my bedroom, and survived. I still have scars on my face after 72 years. Burned 80 candles this year and aiming for 100. The treadmill is a wonderful gadget. Mowed my entire lawn this morning with a push mower (not self-propelled) and it has been hot and humid in Florida in July. It was 80 degrees at 9 am when I mowed. Exercise is the best medicine!

 

 

 

 

 

Let me see if if I understand the lesson learned from your life experiences that you seem to believe should serve as an epidemiological model for action during a pandemic. 

 

You survived smallpox at age 8 and nobody was in a panic about it. You were probably exposed to C-19 on a cruise and may have acquired immunity. You stay fit and mow your lawn with a push mower. In another post, you recommended washing hands and not touching your face, but masks aren't necessary since you believe that touching contaminated surfaces is more infectious than aerosol particles, except if someone is coughing or sneezing, and then run away quickly.

 

You're healthy and have lived to 80, therefore, your conclusion is that our strategy for the nation should be to do nothing more than you do since that worked well for you. Right? 

 

 

Is his confirmation bias at its core any different then your 

Trump derangement syndrome

 

or that your only post about the virus?

 

 

 

 

 

 

confirmation bias
[confirmation bias]
 
NOUN
confirmation bias (noun)
  1. the tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one's existing beliefs or theories.

 

 

You may not be aware of the difference between conclusions derived from personal experience and evidence offered by the outstanding virologists, epidemiologists, and other scientists. Since the late Renaissance, the scientific method has demonstrated its value over intuitions from random or personalized inspirations. It may have been of value to have paid more attention in fifth-grade science. I assume that when you need medical help that you don't go to a trader but you see a doctor.

 

I make no claim to offer original interpretations. I simply present conclusions of those with expertise and some of the evidence on which it is based. We can go back to the Middle Ages or proceed with the scientific method. My choice is clear. You can insist that these conclusions are a conspiracy in a flimsy effort to justify your own theories. Accusing scientists of heresy has a long history. You can accuse me of Trump derangement syndrome and remain blithely unaware that personal attacks expose the frailty of illogical reasoning.



#12 pdx5

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Posted 12 July 2020 - 07:17 AM

Claire...
In my 37 years working on designing and manufacturing industrial machines which are subjected to more brutal shock loads than any others, the most important lesson I learned is this:
Go by actual results, and ignore the theory promulgated by experts.
You will do well if you learn what I learned!
"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#13 Dex

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Posted 12 July 2020 - 09:39 AM

 

 

 

Having spent first 20 years of my life in virus infested India (population density 12 times USA), I have seen viruses come and viruses go. I came down with small pox virus at age 8.. It was a serious infectious disease caused by the variola virus. It was contagious—meaning, it spread from one person to another. People who had smallpox had a fever and a distinctive, progressive skin rash. Most people with smallpox recovered, but about 3 out of every 10 people with the disease died. Comparatively covid-19 is a pussy cat.

 

Imagine 30% mortality rate! Yet no one panicked. My mom nursed me back to health. She later told me I was hanging on to life by a thread with excruciatingly high fever and puss filled eruptions all over my 8 year old body. There was no shutdown, I was quarantined to my bedroom, and survived. I still have scars on my face after 72 years. Burned 80 candles this year and aiming for 100. The treadmill is a wonderful gadget. Mowed my entire lawn this morning with a push mower (not self-propelled) and it has been hot and humid in Florida in July. It was 80 degrees at 9 am when I mowed. Exercise is the best medicine!

 

 

 

 

 

Let me see if if I understand the lesson learned from your life experiences that you seem to believe should serve as an epidemiological model for action during a pandemic. 

 

You survived smallpox at age 8 and nobody was in a panic about it. You were probably exposed to C-19 on a cruise and may have acquired immunity. You stay fit and mow your lawn with a push mower. In another post, you recommended washing hands and not touching your face, but masks aren't necessary since you believe that touching contaminated surfaces is more infectious than aerosol particles, except if someone is coughing or sneezing, and then run away quickly.

 

You're healthy and have lived to 80, therefore, your conclusion is that our strategy for the nation should be to do nothing more than you do since that worked well for you. Right? 

 

 

Is his confirmation bias at its core any different then your 

Trump derangement syndrome

 

or that your only post about the virus?

 

 

 

 

 

 

confirmation bias
[confirmation bias]
 
NOUN
confirmation bias (noun)
  1. the tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one's existing beliefs or theories.

 

 

You may not be aware of the difference between conclusions derived from personal experience and evidence offered by the outstanding virologists, epidemiologists, and other scientists. Since the late Renaissance, the scientific method has demonstrated its value over intuitions from random or personalized inspirations. It may have been of value to have paid more attention in fifth-grade science. I assume that when you need medical help that you don't go to a trader but you see a doctor.

 

I make no claim to offer original interpretations. I simply present conclusions of those with expertise and some of the evidence on which it is based. We can go back to the Middle Ages or proceed with the scientific method. My choice is clear. You can insist that these conclusions are a conspiracy in a flimsy effort to justify your own theories. Accusing scientists of heresy has a long history. You can accuse me of Trump derangement syndrome and remain blithely unaware that personal attacks expose the frailty of illogical reasoning.

 

 

Neither of my points are personal attacks.

Anyone can look at your posting history to see the number of posts about the virus.

 

TDS - is my scientific analysis and diagnosis based upon your symptoms.  


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#14 claire

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Posted 12 July 2020 - 10:07 AM

Claire...
In my 37 years working on designing and manufacturing industrial machines which are subjected to more brutal shock loads than any others, the most important lesson I learned is this:
Go by actual results, and ignore the theory promulgated by experts.
You will do well if you learn what I learned!

 

Ah, now your talking. I agree. Go with the empirical evidence.

 

Based on past experience of the nature of pandemics and their knowledge of the virology of C-19, experts in epidemiology hypothesized that contagion would run amuk if not contained by such measures as massive testing, contact tracing, and measures to limit personal contact such as wearing masks and social distancing. These efforts turned out to be successful when implemented in other nations who were affected well before our outbreak.

 

But, we decided not to take this so seriously, not to listen to the "hypotheses" of the experts, and had no national strategy.

 

Let's look at the results. About six months ago, there were 15 verified cases in the U.S. Lo and behold, now, there are about 3,250,000 cases and 135,000 deaths. That's EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE.

 

Would you stop production of one of your industrial machines after 1000 of them failed? Would you keep the same design if 1,000,000 failed? How about at 3,250,000? When would you be fired or out of business? When would it occur to you that the experts were right?



#15 SemiBizz

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Posted 12 July 2020 - 11:59 AM

Sorry, but the death counts are TAINTED...

 

Covid-19 only ACCELERATED existing grave and unhealthy prognoses for most of the population that died...

 

BUT, in the wisdom of government... they decided to put a BOUNTY on Covid cases, so virtually any and all deaths possible would be attributed to C-19.

 

So there's a lot wrong with the math here... time will bear that out.

 

In the meantime we have destroyed our economy.

 

And the resistance to HCQ is just full-on T.D.S.

 

Folks who hate Trump more than they love our country.


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#16 pdx5

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Posted 12 July 2020 - 12:16 PM

 

Claire...
In my 37 years working on designing and manufacturing industrial machines which are subjected to more brutal shock loads than any others, the most important lesson I learned is this:
Go by actual results, and ignore the theory promulgated by experts.
You will do well if you learn what I learned!

 

Ah, now your talking. I agree. Go with the empirical evidence.

 

Based on past experience of the nature of pandemics and their knowledge of the virology of C-19, experts in epidemiology hypothesized that contagion would run amuk if not contained by such measures as massive testing, contact tracing, and measures to limit personal contact such as wearing masks and social distancing. These efforts turned out to be successful when implemented in other nations who were affected well before our outbreak.

 

But, we decided not to take this so seriously, not to listen to the "hypotheses" of the experts, and had no national strategy.

 

Let's look at the results. About six months ago, there were 15 verified cases in the U.S. Lo and behold, now, there are about 3,250,000 cases and 135,000 deaths. That's EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE.

 

Would you stop production of one of your industrial machines after 1000 of them failed? Would you keep the same design if 1,000,000 failed? How about at 3,250,000? When would you be fired or out of business? When would it occur to you that the experts were right?

 

Didn't "experts" predicted (way back 5 months ago) 2-2.5 million deaths in USA from covid-19?

Can you name 2 predictions by Dr Fauci which have matched actual reasults?

 

SO yes, I repeat my hypothesis...on any new phenomena, the so called experts are as clueless as anyone on this board. 

Just observe your personal experience and depend on it, it is as reliable as anything Dr Fauci might hypothesize. If little old me can avoid covid-19, anyone can. And I did everything the "experts" said not to do. That includes Caribbean cruise, not wearing mask through May, 2 dozen visits to grocery stores, walks on the beautiful St Augustine beaches, dining is ocean front restaurants, blah blah blah. According to Dr Fauci, I should have been in ICU on a ventilator by now.

 

I wish we had 300 million cases by now in US because overwhelming would be asymptomatic and acquiring T-cell immunity, just like I believe I did from the jam packed cruise with not a single person of the 3500 people on ship wearing masks. That is a better explanation why I have not acquired another covid-19 infection than anything the "experts" are promulgating.

 

Now please stay locked up in your basement until Dr Fauci signals it is safe to come out.


Edited by pdx5, 12 July 2020 - 12:23 PM.

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#17 claire

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Posted 12 July 2020 - 01:51 PM

 

 

Claire...
In my 37 years working on designing and manufacturing industrial machines which are subjected to more brutal shock loads than any others, the most important lesson I learned is this:
Go by actual results, and ignore the theory promulgated by experts.
You will do well if you learn what I learned!

 

Ah, now your talking. I agree. Go with the empirical evidence.

 

Based on past experience of the nature of pandemics and their knowledge of the virology of C-19, experts in epidemiology hypothesized that contagion would run amuk if not contained by such measures as massive testing, contact tracing, and measures to limit personal contact such as wearing masks and social distancing. These efforts turned out to be successful when implemented in other nations who were affected well before our outbreak.

 

But, we decided not to take this so seriously, not to listen to the "hypotheses" of the experts, and had no national strategy.

 

Let's look at the results. About six months ago, there were 15 verified cases in the U.S. Lo and behold, now, there are about 3,250,000 cases and 135,000 deaths. That's EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE.

 

Would you stop production of one of your industrial machines after 1000 of them failed? Would you keep the same design if 1,000,000 failed? How about at 3,250,000? When would you be fired or out of business? When would it occur to you that the experts were right?

 

Didn't "experts" predicted (way back 5 months ago) 2-2.5 million deaths in USA from covid-19?

Can you name 2 predictions by Dr Fauci which have matched actual reasults?

 

SO yes, I repeat my hypothesis...on any new phenomena, the so called experts are as clueless as anyone on this board. 

Just observe your personal experience and depend on it, it is as reliable as anything Dr Fauci might hypothesize. If little old me can avoid covid-19, anyone can. And I did everything the "experts" said not to do. That includes Caribbean cruise, not wearing mask through May, 2 dozen visits to grocery stores, walks on the beautiful St Augustine beaches, dining is ocean front restaurants, blah blah blah. According to Dr Fauci, I should have been in ICU on a ventilator by now.

 

I wish we had 300 million cases by now in US because overwhelming would be asymptomatic and acquiring T-cell immunity, just like I believe I did from the jam packed cruise with not a single person of the 3500 people on ship wearing masks. That is a better explanation why I have not acquired another covid-19 infection than anything the "experts" are promulgating.

 

Now please stay locked up in your basement until Dr Fauci signals it is safe to come out.

 

 

Impeccable logic. A reminder that not all people who drive while intoxicated die or kill other people, but the odds are higher. Were you among those who believed in February or March that C-19 was a hoax or that it would miraculously disappear in a week or two or that it was no worse than the flu? 

 

I have no interest in debating this issue with you any further. I'm sure you could find reasons to believe that the earth is flat because...experts, what do they know? It's better to trust your judgment based on self-referential hyperbole. There's nothing more worth adding other than that we wait for the data in a month or two and assess the evidence again. Hopefully, recent medical findings will have reduced the death rate and, hopefully, Americans will stop behaving like recalcitrant children and follow safety protocols based on evidence.



#18 risktaker

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Posted 12 July 2020 - 02:58 PM

If you think this is a hoax, you might want to read this article.

https://abcnews.go.c...ory?id=71731414

30-year-old dies after attending 'COVID party' thinking virus was a 'hoax'

"I think I made a mistake. I thought this was a hoax, but it's not."

Those were the final words of a 30-year-old patient who died at Methodist Hospital in San Antonio this week after attending a so-called "COVID party," according to the hospital.

#19 Dex

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Posted 12 July 2020 - 03:27 PM

http://www.don-linds.../arguments.html


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#20 .Blizzard

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Posted 12 July 2020 - 04:35 PM

8 new deaths in New York today.

It means we're all gonna die sooner or later......