I understand the VIX not reaching 15 with SPX not at new highs yet, but VXN
not dropping with NDX way above old highs seems to suggest that we will not see
much below these levels for years maybe, a new higher range.
You could call this a divergence that will lead to a big decline soon, but with AAII
nowhere close to levels for a top, I think we are in a cycle much like the late 90's.
There is no charting for VIX before the 90's, so I don't think there is just another year
before a bear market. Retail is not going to be loading up on SPX and NDX options,
don't know what those P/C ratios are now, there is a high demand for puts right now,
probably more hedging as most don't think the high prices are sustainable or even to go higher,
again, that gets supported by AAII.
Edited by CLK, 12 July 2020 - 09:37 AM.