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Risk Windows for Week of July 13th


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#1 Douglas

Douglas

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Posted 13 July 2020 - 04:36 AM

According to my risk summation system, the days this week with the highest risk of turn in or acceleration of the current trend are Monday the 13th, Tuesday the 14th and Friday the 17th.  Monday and Tuesday are very different kind of signals, so they are two different windows which might mean some sort of whipsaw.  

 

Last week my system missed the DJIA top on Monday the 6th, but a very accurate cycle which is a part of the summation did catch this turn which I noted in a response to my original post.  This accurate cycle is lit up 4 out of 5 days this week reinforcing the whipsaw forecast above.  The DJIA low last week on Thursday was in the end-of-the-week risk window, so at least the system caught that turn.

 

I am amazed how well the DJIA has been holding up given the long cycle turns happening in this time frame, the sky high bullish daily  sentiment which hit 91% bulls early last week and Donald's dive in the polls.  I guess it just goes to show you what a few trillion in FED cash splashed around can do for a sickly market.  It also tells you what a dark black hole may be sitting just under this market if the FED ever decides to take their foot off the gas.  We might just find out if the FED decides to tone down their bias in front of the election sometime later this quarter.  Also the printer has been running so hard 24/7 that it might just blow a gasket.  

 

Regards,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 13 July 2020 - 04:43 AM.


#2 Douglas

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Posted 13 July 2020 - 02:53 PM

Welcome to the whipsaw buzzsaw that I noted in the first paragraph of my post above.  Who needs Disneyland when you've got Wall Street rides like this.  Something today for bulls and bears. By announcing more punch, then threatening to take the bowl away if the party gets too rowdy, clearly the FED open mouth committee is just trying to make everyone happy.  Well almost everyone, maybe someday they'll actually raise rates to send a little joy to the pensioners and annuitants too.  Just kidding, no chance of that actually happening in this lifetime.

 

Regards,

Douglas      


Edited by Douglas, 13 July 2020 - 03:00 PM.