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The Great 2020 Virus Bubble - near the end


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 13 July 2020 - 06:12 AM

Last week was my worst since February this year, during that ATH SPX high, but this Virus Bubble is one for the books that will soon pop. 

 

Some of my losses were self-inflicted but you cannot deny the powerful surge in NQ that dragged along most sectors. I closed my remaining NQ long this morning with a profit of, get this, 182 points. Good, but this, and my NQ profits this morning & XLF profits so far today, may still not be enough to compensate for the PUTS losses when the cash market opens. 
 

I will reopen hedge lower and load up on NQ long daytrades, but this is a market that is ready to pop - maybe not today or this week, and the gains & losses swing wildly in big-size NQ daytrades, vert scary at times, and it is tempting to bank daytrade profits as much as possible. However, this means you lose out on tacking on more profits when NQ jumps 25 points in 2 minutes! 

 

I will try to accumulate at least 40 QQQ PUTS, and buy XLF on the dip for my LT Portfolio.  On any big decline I will buy individual banks. One lesson learned in the big 2007/2009 bubble and crash is: if you must buy stocks or ETFs during a crash then stick to the financial sector since the FED bails them out, first.

 

Warren might get this one right, I am am supporting him on this one:

https://ca.finance.y...-121015499.html

 

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 13 July 2020 - 06:27 AM

OTH, the bull has much more to go before the bubble implodes, according to this:

https://www.marketwa...2?mod=home-page



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 13 July 2020 - 06:32 AM

Futures flatlining for a few minutes here --- before another ramp up... Meanwhile:

 

 

https://www.marketwa...2?mod=home-page

 

Wolf Richter, the veteran investor behind the Wolf Street blog, got hit hard betting against the market during the blow-off rally of in 1999. But he says this market “is even crazier” than that legendary internet bubble, and he’s banking on an imminent downturn.

Still, he’s keeping a sense of humor about it his short of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF SPY, +1.02% .

“I’m sharing this trade for your future entertainment,” he told readers, “so you can hail me as the obliterating moron that infamously shorted the greatest rally floating weightlessly ever higher above the worst economic and corporate crisis imaginable.”

This isn’t the only short trade Richter’s made public in the past six months. He’s on a bit of a roll with the doom and gloom. Earlier this year, Richter nailed his bearish call when he pocketed a 26.5% gain by covering his SPY position and another 13.1% covering his QQQ QQQ, +0.68% short. 

 

“I don’t expect those kinds of fireworks this time — but I didn’t expect them last time either,” he told MarketWatch. “I’m gunning for a regular run-of-the-mill sell-off.”

Richter acknowledged that, this time, the risk-reward is out of whack and he feels “crappy” about it, but he just can’t fathom how this rally can continue in the face of “the worst economy in my lifetime.”

https://www.marketwa...=article_inline



#4 dTraderB

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Posted 13 July 2020 - 06:33 AM

VIRUS BUBBLE reminds one of the "TRADE TALKS" rally

 

 

Dow futures rise more than 200 points as Pfizer, BioNTech vaccines get ‘fast track’ status

https://www.cnbc.com...irus-cases.html



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 13 July 2020 - 06:35 AM

Below 10,900 I will buy and put aside 2 NQ LONG while focusing on NQ daytrades, QQQ PUTS, and a possible Crude short, IT



#6 12SPX

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Posted 13 July 2020 - 07:31 AM

I carried my short on the ES over the weekend and wasn't surprised to see the pop this morning but in the end of the week it will be interesting if we finish higher because of this expiration cycle especially when I can sell the 3500 August calls for around $6-$7 this morning if I wanted to as premiums are way to rich.  Even the 3400's which would be a new high in the market are around $17!  This is a longer cycle but still!  Will know more by Friday but we'll see!  Anyhow with my add this morning at 3200, my average short is 3180 now! 



#7 LMF

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Posted 13 July 2020 - 08:37 AM

The VIX gap below is not even on the horizon yet.

#8 12SPX

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Posted 13 July 2020 - 08:48 AM

Added some more at the open at 3203 so now my average jumped again to 3189, we'll see how the day goes here now may even hold longer, it is a long tennis day....



#9 12SPX

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Posted 13 July 2020 - 09:23 AM

Exciting, 3191 average short now! 



#10 12SPX

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Posted 13 July 2020 - 09:48 AM

Think I'm gonna get up to an average 3200 today if this keeps up, 3195 now.  Might even just pull some off in the end as in just today's I'm sitting at 3205 lol!