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Risk Windows Next Week and Possible Nearby Top


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#1 Douglas

Douglas

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Posted 19 September 2020 - 06:07 AM

According to my risk summation system, the days next week with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend are Tuesday the 22nd and Thursday the 24th of September.  

 

Last week the system disappointingly missed the Wednesday top, but may have tagged a low on Friday if the market starts a move up on Monday the 21st. 

 

It apparently wasn't the FED that topped the market Wednesday, but the continued gridlock on The Hill concerning the next tranche of the "free" money handout.  The FED Head has another baloney testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday of this coming week.  This time the risk window coincides with the start of his babble fest.  The real risk this week would appear to me to be the potential for massive protests in D.C. concerning RBG's replacement on the Court.  If Mitch goes ahead with a vote before the election, expect all hades to break out making the recent protests look like a Sunday walk in the park.  

 

My general trading system sees an elevated risk of an important top in this general time frame.  Ideally the DJIA will make one more attempt to rally to a local high starting in one of the risk windows this week or next and fail, but it is also possible that the 2nd of September was it.  The risk hole the system sees immediately ahead is thousands of DOW points deep. 

 

Regards,

Douglas

 

 

 



#2 Douglas

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Posted 21 September 2020 - 05:08 AM

Well, the butt kicking the DJIA futures are taking this morning makes it clear that in all probability the Friday risk window was a dud and not a local low.   So much for hope over better judgement.  Thursday's risk window also was a day late and a dollar short of the top on Wednesday, so all in all a lousy past week for the system. 

 

That top, black hole thingy I warned about in the title and text of the post above is clearly still in play this morning with DJIA support on the big numbers stepping down at 27k & 26k, and if it really gets nasty, at 25k, 24k and 23k.   I'm sure some doctor clown will be rolled out with new vaccine news this morning, Kudlow will announce new plans to cut taxes or one of the several FED heads speaking today will let a negative interest rate comment slip just to keep the Put alive.  It's a bit like the little Dutch boy and the dike on steroids, but with slightly less noble intentions and his finger stuck somewhere it really doesn't belong.  

 

Regards,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 21 September 2020 - 05:11 AM.