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The 2020 Election Trade thread

your plan to trade it ? how ?

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#1 tradesurfer

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Posted 26 September 2020 - 08:45 PM

I am curious how others here are planning to trade the "election trade" ?

 

A few questions come to mind:

 

WHEN is the actual election trade?  Now? The day before the election?  The day after the election ?

 

HOW will the market move into the election?  Rally up to a new all time high INTO the day before the election?   Or sell hard down into the day before the election ?  (in 2016 we sold down into the day BEFORE the election and formed an inverted hammer candlestick)

 

I count 26 trading days (price bars) that lead up to the day before the election.

 

 

 

My own take at the moment is that we could see price action pivot back up to the old all time high and then near the day before the election make a breakout to a new all time high (on anticipation of a POTUS win).   But then if POTUS does not win, a one day crash of maybe 20 to 40%.

 

Why?  I am borrowing from the play book of the IAR Argentina Index

 

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#2 slupert

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Posted 28 September 2020 - 01:58 PM

Same as the last time long after the election. If there is a panic and they all dump right before the election, even better.



#3 slupert

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Posted 28 September 2020 - 02:02 PM

Same as the last time long after the election. If there is a panic and they all dump right before the election, even better.

The same as any other trade, you have to determine the time frame. If you want to be in the eye of the storm, futes trading election eve should be a blast. Watch for the FED day strategy, the initial knee jerk reaction is the wrong one, then they jam it the right way. I think a dump, then a short fry.