2 replies to this topic

[Douglas]

According to my risk summation system, the middle of this week has the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend.  The risk is highest on Wednesday the 30th of September, but it is not a lot lower on the two days surrounding it, Tuesday the 29th and Thursday the 1st of October, so risk of excitement in the middle is, I suppose, the best way to describe it. 

 

Last week the Tuesday the 22nd risk window caught the closing DJIA high for the week and only just missed the hourly high in the first hour Wednesday.  The Thursday risk window caught the DJIA low for the week and a turn higher which appears to be putting on more steam this morning in futures trading.  So all in all not a bad week for the system.  Just in the nick of time too, given its lousy performance the week before.

 

Well, my system and my cracked crystal ball prognostications are in a rare alignment this week.  As I noted last week, the debate might well be the biggest risk this week making Wednesday the 30th the day for folks to express their opinion with market fireworks if there's a  knockout one way or the other.  We're still in the risk of a top time frame according to my system.

 

On this side of the pond the whole BREXIT fiasco is fumbling toward a deadline in the next couple of weeks with no clear solution in hand.  The only major country which seems to be righting itself and starting to hit on all cylinders is China.  Let's see, did any other time in history have the world stumbling out of a depression with a dictator showing up the rest of world by making the trains run on time, running "re-education" camps for an ethnic minority, and starting to flex their military muscle in neighbouring countries?   If that doesn't scare the crap out of you, you're just not paying attention.

 

Regards,

Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 28 September 2020 - 07:15 AM.

[q4wer]

could you please share how you trade the turn dates?   

[Douglas]

q4wer, the risk summation system simply measures the risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend each day.  The risk summation system also helps identify windows of excessive risk.   I have a separate system consisting of daily and weekly indicators for generating trade signals.   I try to buy in a risk window if prices have been falling and turn up or are rising and accelerate up on an hourly DJIA chart during the risk window and my weekly and daily indicators are on a buy signal.  Similarly I will try to sell if prices have been rising and turn down or falling and start accelerating down on an hourly DJIA chart during the risk window and my weekly and daily indicators produce a sell signal.  I use a Chandelier stop to exit trades if not closed by a reverse trade signal.

 

Last Friday the system generated a buy signal when the DJIA broke the hourly down trend line confirming the bottom that occurred during the risk window on Thursday.   I ignored this buy signal due to what I saw in my cracked crystal ball that might occur during the very large risk window in the middle of this week.  This week is an example of a high risk window when the risk summation system makes me stand aside.  So far that was a bad decision.  Maybe by end of day Wednesday I'll feel different.  Time will tell.   Hope this helps explain how I use the risk windows.

 

Regards,

Douglas