1426 replies to this topic

[dougie]

 

FNV made it into Feb-March '20 range, that would be equivalent to gold going under 1700. That's not a correction, this is a bear market.

I guess we may be debating semantics of what a "bear" is. I think we are "correcting" a huge bull leg from March to Aug highs in most stuff, I don't think its a wave 4, I think this is a wave 2. So given the "percentage decline" in a lot of stuff from the Aug highs easily at the 20-30% or even more levels a "cyclical bear" is a reasonable labeling, "secular" I don't think so, we see

 

some very "interesting" stuff here, NEM seems ready to go positive, AEM and GOLD holding up well compared to leys say GDXJ or SILJ, pick your poison

 

Senor

 

i recall you using NEM successfully in the past as a tell. when was that?

[senorBS]

 

 

FNV made it into Feb-March '20 range, that would be equivalent to gold going under 1700. That's not a correction, this is a bear market.

I guess we may be debating semantics of what a "bear" is. I think we are "correcting" a huge bull leg from March to Aug highs in most stuff, I don't think its a wave 4, I think this is a wave 2. So given the "percentage decline" in a lot of stuff from the Aug highs easily at the 20-30% or even more levels a "cyclical bear" is a reasonable labeling, "secular" I don't think so, we see

 

some very "interesting" stuff here, NEM seems ready to go positive, AEM and GOLD holding up well compared to leys say GDXJ or SILJ, pick your poison

 

Senor

 

i recall you using NEM successfully in the past as a tell. when was that?

 

LOL I am in and out so frequently the past several months and using different vehicles at times I really don't remember about NEM. Got the weak close today no surprise and it appears NOV lows are being taken out (GOAU today, and new decline lows for FNV and RGLD below Nov and Jan). Looks like most miner ETF's/indices will "likely" take out those Nov lows soon and thank goodness for that as it should make things a lot easier once we identify the likely lows.

 

 

Senor

[linrom1]

FNV retraced a perfect 50% of that March gap low and declined 27% of its high. This is a bear market. It could get a rebound of that 50% like it did of 38.2%.

[stubaby]

I like to watch the 15-week Moving Average and the 65-week Moving Average on gold - it's a stand-back and look at the big picture chart - but can show a degree of 'overboughtness' that can make one "on the lookout" for a correction during bull market phases.

 

https://schrts.co/XejtYmGD

 

 

KISS

 

Note:  There are no annotations on this chart nor the current price of $GOLD for clarity

Edited by stubaby, 16 January 2021 - 11:52 AM.

[dougie]

Is PLAT the new GOLD?

[linrom1]

 

If you believe the Treasury and the Fed should be merged – what better way to do that than to put the former head of the Fed as the Secretary of the Treasury?

This is a huge giveaway that Modern Monetary Theory is now the law of the land.

We have a $1 trillion per year baseline budget deficit; that was going into the pandemic. Congress put $3 trillion on top of that through the CARES Act and a few others – so now we’re up to $4 trillion for Fiscal Year 2020.

Now we’re in Fiscal 2021, and we just had about another Trillion that was done in the last days of the Trump administration. Now Biden is going to come in and do $2 trillion on top of that… We are talking $6 trillion on top of $2 trillion base line deficit – our Debt-to-GDP Ratio is already at 130%, and it’ll soon push 135%.

Who’s in that league? Lebanon, Greece, and Italy – that’s the club the United States is now in.

MMT says don’t worry because it’s all in Dollars, and we print Dollars, so we can never run out of money and can never go broke! I think that literally that is true – but it doesn’t mean that people want the Dollars or that it works.

Here’s the bottom line when it comes to MMT: there’s no legal or accounting boundary, that’s true. But, there’s a confidence boundary.

And it’s not visible; you don’t know you hit it till you hit it – and then things collapse.

People forget that in 1977, the United States issued Treasury notes denominated in Swiss Francs – they were called the ‘Carter Bonds.’ People said “we’ll take the credit but we don’t want the Dollars”. That’s how bad it was in the late 70s. And we could get back there very quickly.

I think it’s important for investors and asset allocators to understand that MMT is not a novelty or a fringe theory – it’s going to be the primary economic policy of the Biden administration.

Stephanie Kelton’s working behind the scenes, Janet Yellen’s the front person (who better than her – she can merge the Treasury and the Fed), Powell’s going to do what he’s told, and so will the big banks.

Jim Rickards on Hedgeye

[Smithy]

Jim Rickards on Hedgeye

-----------------------

I think he's saying we are printing the currency into oblivion and the move is well under way.

Did I miss anything?

[dougie]

 

 

If you believe the Treasury and the Fed should be merged – what better way to do that than to put the former head of the Fed as the Secretary of the Treasury?

This is a huge giveaway that Modern Monetary Theory is now the law of the land.

We have a $1 trillion per year baseline budget deficit; that was going into the pandemic. Congress put $3 trillion on top of that through the CARES Act and a few others – so now we’re up to $4 trillion for Fiscal Year 2020.

Now we’re in Fiscal 2021, and we just had about another Trillion that was done in the last days of the Trump administration. Now Biden is going to come in and do $2 trillion on top of that… We are talking $6 trillion on top of $2 trillion base line deficit – our Debt-to-GDP Ratio is already at 130%, and it’ll soon push 135%.

Who’s in that league? Lebanon, Greece, and Italy – that’s the club the United States is now in.

MMT says don’t worry because it’s all in Dollars, and we print Dollars, so we can never run out of money and can never go broke! I think that literally that is true – but it doesn’t mean that people want the Dollars or that it works.

Here’s the bottom line when it comes to MMT: there’s no legal or accounting boundary, that’s true. But, there’s a confidence boundary.

And it’s not visible; you don’t know you hit it till you hit it – and then things collapse.

People forget that in 1977, the United States issued Treasury notes denominated in Swiss Francs – they were called the ‘Carter Bonds.’ People said “we’ll take the credit but we don’t want the Dollars”. That’s how bad it was in the late 70s. And we could get back there very quickly.

I think it’s important for investors and asset allocators to understand that MMT is not a novelty or a fringe theory – it’s going to be the primary economic policy of the Biden administration.

Stephanie Kelton’s working behind the scenes, Janet Yellen’s the front person (who better than her – she can merge the Treasury and the Fed), Powell’s going to do what he’s told, and so will the big banks.

Jim Rickards on Hedgeye

 

folks been saying this about Japan for 30 years

[linrom1]

 

 

 

If you believe the Treasury and the Fed should be merged – what better way to do that than to put the former head of the Fed as the Secretary of the Treasury?

This is a huge giveaway that Modern Monetary Theory is now the law of the land.

We have a $1 trillion per year baseline budget deficit; that was going into the pandemic. Congress put $3 trillion on top of that through the CARES Act and a few others – so now we’re up to $4 trillion for Fiscal Year 2020.

Now we’re in Fiscal 2021, and we just had about another Trillion that was done in the last days of the Trump administration. Now Biden is going to come in and do $2 trillion on top of that… We are talking $6 trillion on top of $2 trillion base line deficit – our Debt-to-GDP Ratio is already at 130%, and it’ll soon push 135%.

Who’s in that league? Lebanon, Greece, and Italy – that’s the club the United States is now in.

MMT says don’t worry because it’s all in Dollars, and we print Dollars, so we can never run out of money and can never go broke! I think that literally that is true – but it doesn’t mean that people want the Dollars or that it works.

Here’s the bottom line when it comes to MMT: there’s no legal or accounting boundary, that’s true. But, there’s a confidence boundary.

And it’s not visible; you don’t know you hit it till you hit it – and then things collapse.

People forget that in 1977, the United States issued Treasury notes denominated in Swiss Francs – they were called the ‘Carter Bonds.’ People said “we’ll take the credit but we don’t want the Dollars”. That’s how bad it was in the late 70s. And we could get back there very quickly.

I think it’s important for investors and asset allocators to understand that MMT is not a novelty or a fringe theory – it’s going to be the primary economic policy of the Biden administration.

Stephanie Kelton’s working behind the scenes, Janet Yellen’s the front person (who better than her – she can merge the Treasury and the Fed), Powell’s going to do what he’s told, and so will the big banks.

Jim Rickards on Hedgeye

 

folks been saying this about Japan for 30 years

 

 

 

 

 

 

If you believe the Treasury and the Fed should be merged – what better way to do that than to put the former head of the Fed as the Secretary of the Treasury?

This is a huge giveaway that Modern Monetary Theory is now the law of the land.

We have a $1 trillion per year baseline budget deficit; that was going into the pandemic. Congress put $3 trillion on top of that through the CARES Act and a few others – so now we’re up to $4 trillion for Fiscal Year 2020.

Now we’re in Fiscal 2021, and we just had about another Trillion that was done in the last days of the Trump administration. Now Biden is going to come in and do $2 trillion on top of that… We are talking $6 trillion on top of $2 trillion base line deficit – our Debt-to-GDP Ratio is already at 130%, and it’ll soon push 135%.

Who’s in that league? Lebanon, Greece, and Italy – that’s the club the United States is now in.

MMT says don’t worry because it’s all in Dollars, and we print Dollars, so we can never run out of money and can never go broke! I think that literally that is true – but it doesn’t mean that people want the Dollars or that it works.

Here’s the bottom line when it comes to MMT: there’s no legal or accounting boundary, that’s true. But, there’s a confidence boundary.

And it’s not visible; you don’t know you hit it till you hit it – and then things collapse.

People forget that in 1977, the United States issued Treasury notes denominated in Swiss Francs – they were called the ‘Carter Bonds.’ People said “we’ll take the credit but we don’t want the Dollars”. That’s how bad it was in the late 70s. And we could get back there very quickly.

I think it’s important for investors and asset allocators to understand that MMT is not a novelty or a fringe theory – it’s going to be the primary economic policy of the Biden administration.

Stephanie Kelton’s working behind the scenes, Janet Yellen’s the front person (who better than her – she can merge the Treasury and the Fed), Powell’s going to do what he’s told, and so will the big banks.

Jim Rickards on Hedgeye

 

folks been saying this about Japan for 30 years

 

The combined net lending by the household and corporate sectors in Japan has exceeded net borrowing by the public sector, resulting in current account surpluses (or net lending to the foreign sector).

 

Try this in US?

[linrom1]

 

We have met all the requirements for a bottom. It's a contrived bottom, but, only time will tell if it sticks.

Edited by linrom1, 18 January 2021 - 11:34 AM.