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Worst case scenarios = Weak Week before POST ELECTION RALLY


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 31 October 2020 - 11:36 AM

I know it is all politics, the sky is falling, and other worst-case scenarios but my 33 plus years of experience in markets warn me to be prepared for a GIANT post-election rally. Since I know not exactly when, I am loading up.... It could be I have to wait for it in January but the ideal market path for me is down again until Wednesday or Thursday and then huge move up. I will partially hedge & ride out any losses until the rally is here while I build big LONG positions in LT and RISK portfolio

 

"Perhaps this is why we’re seeing companies report good results during the current earnings season and then their stocks get sold off anyway. Because people recognize the ground shifting. And the environment these companies produced these third quarter results in – an environment in which the recovery was working, the curve had been flattened and stimulus money was circulating – may not be the environment we’re forced to contend with this winter.

Instead, we’re back to worst case scenarios – a pandemic reasserting itself, millions of unemployed without hope of government assistance and a national political battle the likes of which this country hasn’t seen in decades."

 

https://www.philstoc...-case-scenarios



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 31 October 2020 - 11:48 AM

A great week and another profitable month. 

Yesterday was an amazing day because at the end of day, XLF and BAC were profitable on the day - small but certainly not losses as earlier in the day; profits in NQ hedge short closed position and then small loss in fresh short hedge nq position opened for weekend @ 11070; profits in small SPY & QQQ puts closed positions that were opened day before; small profits IN SPY & QQQ CALLS open positions that was opened earlier in the day ("Bought 6 qqq jan calls and 4 spy jan calls"); and 1136 NQ daytrade profits. Yes, from large losses earlier, I did not actually lose in any of my net positions! 

 

Now holding:

LT

4175 XLF

4300 BAC

4 JAN SPY CALLS

 

RISK

6 QQQ JAN CALLS

1 nq hedge short 11070

 

I will be adding to LONGS LT portfolio  and dyatrading NQ as wells as options during the next few weeks. 



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 31 October 2020 - 11:49 AM

Weekly Analysis 11/1:
1. Expecting a revist of lows around 3220 and then balance thru 3333-3220
2. Expect 3220 to give up some time next week and expose 3058
3. Now 3278


#4 dTraderB

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Posted 31 October 2020 - 11:50 AM

This 3225 zone has been key for #ES_F as posted and it just held for test #2 today. As many know, a common Friday pattern for months has been morning selloff/late afternoon rally Bulls need a push here back to 3290 and above 3290 needed to trigger a rally. 3225 goes we see 3180
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Adam Mancini
 
@AdamMancini4
· Oct 30
Major swings for #ES_F as it positions itself in the final days before election. Yesterday, I posted 3225-30 was key support & it clipped exactly overnight & recovered as a bullish fake break down For today:Above 3290 sees 3325 again then 3400. Overnight lows must hold for bulls twitter.com/AdamMancini4/s…


#5 dTraderB

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Posted 31 October 2020 - 11:51 AM

Replying to
Theres the late Friday rally as usual. Good end to the week - bulls will need to break 3290 next week


#6 dTraderB

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Posted 31 October 2020 - 11:53 AM

I lean towards this analysis:

 

William Respectfully, I think no one knows whether we will get better prices. We can only make logical and educated guesses. 1, A landslide them win will solidify a health care policy. 2. There will likely be no contested or litigated election this year. Good luck, be safe.


#7 dTraderB

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Posted 31 October 2020 - 11:55 AM

Yes, and I will load up on banks & XLF at levels lower than my current entry prices.
; stopped trading gold but will go LONG on crude below WTI $ 36 if traded.

 

I concur, Mikey.
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michael Rubin
 
@michael47392898
· 6h
Replying to @DougKass
Analysts on Options Action are recommending regional banks(xre) and gold (gdx). What do you think?


#8 dTraderB

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Posted 31 October 2020 - 11:56 AM

The past week triggered about 50 more stocks to fall 20% below their 52-week highs, now 40% of them are. Above 50% = final innings of most bear markets Below 20% = indicator of a healthy market environment We're still in no-man's land here.


#9 dTraderB

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Posted 31 October 2020 - 11:57 AM

There was a big jump in S&P 500 stocks falling 10% below their 52-week highs, now nearly 70% of them. Above 80% = high enough to be a contrarian signal (usually) Below 40% = what we usually see during a healthy market environment Right now, we're in no-man's land.


#10 dTraderB

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Posted 31 October 2020 - 11:58 AM

 
 
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Could change before the close, but fewer than 15% of NYSE securities are up on the day, and the VIX "fear gauge" is spiking more than 15%. This is the 2nd time in 3 days. Baby + bathwater. It doesn't happen very often.