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Worst case scenarios = Weak Week before POST ELECTION RALLY


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#21 dTraderB

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Posted 02 November 2020 - 08:27 AM

XTRENDS:

Weekly expected range for SPX is +/-160 handles, or 3430-3110 according to SPX options market, twice the size of last week. And this can easily be a 2 sigma week, that is 3590-2950.

#22 dTraderB

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Posted 02 November 2020 - 08:28 AM

ADAM:
Eerie similarity in $SPX to 2016 election where it peaked in September, sold off until election, then started a rally. Repeat is a possibility this year

As usual, price needs to be the guide & sidelines are safest as results come in. Bulls must reclaim 3400-20 to secure upside

#23 dTraderB

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Posted 02 November 2020 - 08:28 AM

Macrocharts:
Closing the week with an update of my favorite "Smart Money" indicator:

Corporate Insiders sold the Top perfectly, one of their biggest Sells ever.

More important: they haven't stopped selling there's room to push much lower if they want. This isn't 2016.

Stay tuned... HAGW! https://t.co/fvzyenkKLE

#24 dTraderB

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Posted 02 November 2020 - 08:29 AM

Will close those calls

#25 12SPX

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Posted 02 November 2020 - 08:42 AM

Your right about the options, out of the money calls are a little pricey as people are hoping for a big rally afterward I think.  Even my old 3800 calls are still trading a $1 in anticipation!!  Tempted to put a stop on my sold 2700 puts at $10 as there showing a nice profit now. 



#26 dTraderB

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Posted 02 November 2020 - 09:24 AM

ADAM:
All last week I posted 3220 was key support in #ES_F and it held Friday for a 100 point run. Its support of a major triangle & must hold for bull case

Plan today: Above 3330 triggers rally to 3385-3400. Bulls want consolidation above 3275 to set it up. Below 3275=back to 3225

#27 dTraderB

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Posted 02 November 2020 - 09:27 AM

I think there will be better CALL entry levels BEFORE the big rally, down first....then uo.
If market drops because of "threats of violence or actual unrest" then I will load up on CALLS


Your right about the options, out of the money calls are a little pricey as people are hoping for a big rally afterward I think.  Even my old 3800 calls are still trading a $1 in anticipation!!  Tempted to put a stop on my sold 2700 puts at $10 as there showing a nice profit now. 



#28 dTraderB

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Posted 02 November 2020 - 09:28 AM

TIC TOC:

No I think this crash is to trap some fools expecting a repeat of 2016

I think main course is still to come , we havent seen full movie yet

#29 dTraderB

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Posted 02 November 2020 - 09:29 AM

Later....

#30 dTraderB

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Posted 02 November 2020 - 09:55 AM

No, holding them, and all LONGS
Second nq hedge short 11205

Will close those calls