50 replies to this topic

[redfoliage2]

Going to be a down month for December ..................

Edited by redfoliage2, 27 November 2020 - 10:29 AM.

[traderx]

no

[redfoliage2]

Internals turning down and too much gains in Nov that sets SPX at the very top of the monthly trendline ....................

Edited by redfoliage2, 27 November 2020 - 10:47 AM.

[traderx]

checkout "Gamblers Fallacy"

[salam]

Red

 

I was about to open a new thread with the same headline.

 

firstly, happy thanksgiving to all my US and Canadian cousins. We certainly do have many things to be grateful for.

 

Since my last post, I flipped long, and have been having a very profitable period on the long side. I decided to lurk during the election nonsense, as I know this is a predominantly right wing board, and there will naturally be a lot of disappointment with the result.

 

suffice to say, the orange toddler will be replaced by an actual politician, who will hopefully try and unite a divided nation, and there is a strong likelihood, partly due to the current sore loser syndrome, Georgia senate seat will flip to provide a Democrat majority in January.

 

 

Anyway, enough off my snowflake views.....

 

 

we are experiencing extremes, with the elastic band on PE ratios near full stretch. Look at Tesla PE ratio as of today, over 1000, for a carmaker! Joining the SP will be a painful experience for fund managers, being forced to buy at these bargain prices! 

 

 

I try not to top or bottom pick, but turn pick.

 

I strongly believe December will be like 2018. An acceleration of selling will likely be triggered in January. 
 

my FF

 

ps. This weekend and following weekends in December will show acceleration of cases and Covid fatalities. I predicted a large autumn surge in cases in the summer, ( giving a medical rationale) and I truly hoped the experts posting here would be correct.... but they are not. They got it completely wrong. Maybe, because they are traders, and not actually experts. 

Edited by salam, 27 November 2020 - 11:00 AM.

[redfoliage2]

negative divergences all over places ..................

[salam]

Fwiw. My positions entered today

 

SP Short @ 3643 1/2 position trade. Stop at break even

ProShares Ultra Vix eTF March long @ 1120 (stop 1090) equivalent to Vix @ 21

Tesla short @ $596.10 beer money 

[redfoliage2]

Possible gap down Monday ...................

Edited by redfoliage2, 27 November 2020 - 12:30 PM.

[salam]

 Monday’s have usually been bullish in November.

 

I didn’t get the expected end of day swoon, however, low volume post thanksgiving Fridays are usually bullish.

 

A further attempt at SP ATHs next week is a possibility 

Edited by salam, 27 November 2020 - 01:09 PM.

[slupert]

Ever year in November begins "the Grind" prices took off like a rocket instead of grinding higher like they usually, do. I went short today looking for a 3-5% drop, will be a shakeout, then we will grind higher to years end, extending their tax liability in to next year. (JMHO)