9 replies to this topic

[Douglas]

It depends on what you price them in.  In Euros they may have turned a corner heading down.  The Euro appears to have broken an 11 year down trend relative to the dollar. With twin pumpers at the FED and Treasury, funny money may flow like green water making the dollar value of US stock indexes rise and simultaneously fall in Euro terms.  Your financial success in the US market may just depend on which side of the pond you plan to spend your winnings.  My currency of necessity, the Pound, is also knocking on the door of the top of a similar very long trend line.  BREXIT may impact its breakout attempt, but the Euro appears to have already successfully breached the wall. 

 

Regards,

Douglas

 

[traderx]

thinking of converting some account dollars to Euros

[Douglas]

traderx, according to AP, Mitch and the band are now playing the same tune as Nancy and Donnie, so a deal's in the wind and so is the dollar.  If the dollar tanks, maybe that ever elusive inflation that Jerome can't see (hint, it's been in assets where he's not looking) will finally be so blatantly obvious that even the Helen Keller workers at the BLS will not be able to ignore it.  Probably not before the December FED (15-16 Dec) conflab though.  That dollar debasing boost to the cost of things that you need is probably shaping up as a lovely spring surprise.  A shot in the back side to go along with your spring covid shot in the arm.  Not to worry, stocks should love it.  Nothing works like money printing to get the bourses' juices flowing.

 

Regards,

Douglas

[alexnewbee]

It depends on what you price them in.  In Euros they may have turned a corner heading down.  The Euro appears to have broken an 11 year down trend relative to the dollar. With twin pumpers at the FED and Treasury, funny money may flow like green water making the dollar value of US stock indexes rise and simultaneously fall in Euro terms.  Your financial success in the US market may just depend on which side of the pond you plan to spend your winnings.  My currency of necessity, the Pound, is also knocking on the door of the top of a similar very long trend line.  BREXIT may impact its breakout attempt, but the Euro appears to have already successfully breached the wall. 

 

Regards,

Douglas

 

Good observation. Even more interesting it is in gold.

http://schrts.co/VPksuuxq

[fib_1618]

 

It depends on what you price them in.  In Euros they may have turned a corner heading down.  The Euro appears to have broken an 11 year down trend relative to the dollar. With twin pumpers at the FED and Treasury, funny money may flow like green water making the dollar value of US stock indexes rise and simultaneously fall in Euro terms.  Your financial success in the US market may just depend on which side of the pond you plan to spend your winnings.  My currency of necessity, the Pound, is also knocking on the door of the top of a similar very long trend line.  BREXIT may impact its breakout attempt, but the Euro appears to have already successfully breached the wall. 

 

Regards,

Douglas

 

 

Good observation. Even more interesting it is in gold.

http://schrts.co/VPksuuxq

 

[Douglas]

alexnewbee, nothing against gold, but the fear factor in the price of gold is off the charts.  Silver is a little better but still stretched at today's prices.  I think one of the best real money devisors to use is copper which has also been used for money for a long time and is not so susceptible to distortions caused by hording due to fear.  A millionaire can't easily hide his wealth in copper unless he's got a freight train to haul it around in.  A million dollars worth of copper weighs almost 290,000 pounds.  A rich guy can haul the 34 pounds of gold needed to cover a million bucks in the trunk of his Tesla.  You buy copper because you need it, not because you're afraid of the latest whacky leader. 

 

SPY/Copper has just broken a three year rising trend line which does not bode well for things going forward probably reflecting the sorry state of affairs in the US bug infested economy.  It will be interesting to see if the latest proposed tranche of stimulus money printing boosts copper or SPY more.  The trend line break would appear to back the red metal and the inflation I rabbited on about in the note above.

 

Regards,

Douglas

[12SPX]

alexnewbee, nothing against gold, but the fear factor in the price of gold is off the charts.  Silver is a little better but still stretched at today's prices.  I think one of the best real money devisors to use is copper which has also been used for money for a long time and is not so susceptible to distortions caused by hording due to fear.  A millionaire can't easily hide his wealth in copper unless he's got a freight train to haul it around in.  A million dollars worth of copper weighs almost 290,000 pounds.  A rich guy can haul the 34 pounds of gold needed to cover a million bucks in the trunk of his Tesla.  You buy copper because you need it, not because you're afraid of the latest whacky leader. 

 

SPY/Copper has just broken a three year rising trend line which does not bode well for things going forward probably reflecting the sorry state of affairs in the US bug infested economy.  It will be interesting to see if the latest proposed tranche of stimulus money printing boosts copper or SPY more.  The trend line break would appear to back the red metal and the inflation I rabbited on about in the note above.

 

Regards,

Douglas

Would love to see a chart on that!

[Douglas]

12SPX, the link below should show SPY/Copper for the last five years.  If you connect the lows in Sept 17, Dec 18 and Mar 20 you will see the trend line I noted.  (I haven't figured out how to paste an annotated chart here yet.)

 

Regards,

Douglas

 

http://schrts.co/EkGgqkNp

Edited by Douglas, 03 December 2020 - 02:54 PM.

[Douglas]

Maybe the SPY/Copper trendline will come out in this link using imgur.com.  

 

Regards,

Douglas

 

NYMW2ZM.png (662×318) (imgur.com)

[alexnewbee]

alexnewbee, nothing against gold, but the fear factor in the price of gold is off the charts.  Silver is a little better but still stretched at today's prices.  I think one of the best real money devisors to use is copper which has also been used for money for a long time and is not so susceptible to distortions caused by hording due to fear.  A millionaire can't easily hide his wealth in copper unless he's got a freight train to haul it around in.  A million dollars worth of copper weighs almost 290,000 pounds.  A rich guy can haul the 34 pounds of gold needed to cover a million bucks in the trunk of his Tesla.  You buy copper because you need it, not because you're afraid of the latest whacky leader. 

 

SPY/Copper has just broken a three year rising trend line which does not bode well for things going forward probably reflecting the sorry state of affairs in the US bug infested economy.  It will be interesting to see if the latest proposed tranche of stimulus money printing boosts copper or SPY more.  The trend line break would appear to back the red metal and the inflation I rabbited on about in the note above.

 

Regards,

Douglas

Thanks, copper ratio also looks interesting, although I prefer Gold. Anyway thanks.