44 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

When the market doesn't react at a clear resistance point (within a fairly short period of time), the trade is no longer "Low-Hanging Fruit" and the first loss is likely the best loss to take.

 

The same is true with regard to support.

 

To, today, we ran up to pivot resistance and the hourly BB, and blew right through. Shorting is fighting a head wind right now.

 

Mark

[12SPX]

Agreed has been all week, I was expecting more volatility but oh well also know that we could wake up to a -2% day when its like this which is sad, I hate unhealthy rallies! 

[Douglas]

You are dead right.  The best trades are often busted trades in the other direction.  Right now the DJIA daily chart is either forming a rising wedge which should break down sharply or a rising catapult which should shoot the index higher.  Given the high bullish sentiment numbers, betting is probably for the break down, but if it turns out to be a break out to the upside, it will force all those shorts kicking and screaming to buy back at sharply higher prices.  Only time will tell. 

 

[12SPX]

Except there are no shorts, currently sitting at record lows.  This is setting up identical to last February and we know what happened after that lol!!  I love bull markets but I love rationality more and you make more money "trading" rational markets!! 

[12SPX]

The interesting thing is that were up 27 points here yet my sold 3800 calls are only up about .50, that tells me that the smart money isn't buying this move! 

[tsharp]

I'm still too novice with the whole Hurst cycles theory thing, though one rule I have followed is not to "float" the cycles... I have pinned the nominal cycle lengths, as on average, they will revert to the means.  My take suggests up into year's end, though lower highs are certainly possible on the nominal peak target dates... twt.

 

 

[da_cheif]

the dumm money isnt buying this move    and the so called smart money has been selling all the way up for years

 

 

lines rule....this from 6 years ago....gettin closer eh?

 

https://www.siliconi...?msgid=29632703

Edited by da_cheif, 04 December 2020 - 12:17 PM.

[12SPX]

the dumm money isnt buying this move    and the so called smart money has been selling all the way up for years

 

 

lines rule....this from 6 years ago....gettin closer eh?

 

https://www.siliconi...?msgid=29632703

Now that's funny not even close lol!! 

[slupert]

You are dead right.  The best trades are often busted trades in the other direction.  Right now the DJIA daily chart is either forming a rising wedge which should break down sharply or a rising catapult which should shoot the index higher.  Given the high bullish sentiment numbers, betting is probably for the break down, but if it turns out to be a break out to the upside, it will force all those shorts kicking and screaming to buy back at sharply higher prices.  Only time will tell. 

 

Thanks, I was looking at that.

[tsharp]

Yep, not quite to a sell yet: