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#21 tsharp

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Posted 05 December 2020 - 10:07 AM

It's do or die time for Wave-2; back in September 2018, I adjusted this working channel to the Wave-B high, and have been using it as the Wave-2 channel since.  For me, a weekly close above that top 150% line next week, and wave-b:2 is no longer an option, and I would go with the March lows as the end of Wave-2, with Wave-i:3 in play... twt.

 

 

SPX-W-12-04-20-2-CH.jpg



#22 tsharp

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Posted 05 December 2020 - 12:41 PM

Another reason there could be a temp top in at this juncture... on 10.9.20 I called for the SOX, if it was going to continue higher, to rise to the Fib 2.0 extension, and it has:

 

 

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#23 tsharp

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Posted 05 December 2020 - 02:46 PM

Another index I've been watching recently is the NBI, and it too seems to suggest a possible ST high, or a leap across that upper channel UTL:

 

 

NBI-W-12-04-20.jpg



#24 da_cheif

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Posted 05 December 2020 - 10:50 PM

epicenter of wave 3 up doesnt seem to be on anybodies radar around here cept mine.......why is that?



#25 tsharp

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Posted 06 December 2020 - 09:41 AM

epicenter of wave 3 up doesnt seem to be on anybodies radar around here cept mine.......why is that?

 

Perhaps if it was more clearly defined, rather than a decades-long slogan?



#26 sixpack

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Posted 06 December 2020 - 11:54 PM

 

You are dead right.  The best trades are often busted trades in the other direction.  Right now the DJIA daily chart is either forming a rising wedge which should break down sharply or a rising catapult which should shoot the index higher.  Given the high bullish sentiment numbers, betting is probably for the break down, but if it turns out to be a break out to the upside, it will force all those shorts kicking and screaming to buy back at sharply higher prices.  Only time will tell. 

 

2MKoUGZ.png

Stig Olassen (sp?) pointed that out to us years ago. I think it's a brilliant observation and thank you for reminding us!

 

M

 

 

So this is what I was looking at early last week.  I was watching for a potential close near the high of the week on Friday.  Thursday evening I became pretty convinced Friday would close near the high.  So Friday morning I bought a couple of momentum stocks, about 25% invested in the trading account.  I did not buy any index stuff.  I doubt we will see much in the way of shakeouts on this move up, considering we just witnessed probably the biggest in stock market history.  There is a very good chance we breakout then reverse at some point before the end of December, as a few folks here have pointed out.  My confidence drops considerably if we give up much of Friday.   



#27 salam

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Posted 07 December 2020 - 04:41 AM

 

 

You are dead right.  The best trades are often busted trades in the other direction.  Right now the DJIA daily chart is either forming a rising wedge which should break down sharply or a rising catapult which should shoot the index higher.  Given the high bullish sentiment numbers, betting is probably for the break down, but if it turns out to be a break out to the upside, it will force all those shorts kicking and screaming to buy back at sharply higher prices.  Only time will tell. 

 

2MKoUGZ.png

Stig Olassen (sp?) pointed that out to us years ago. I think it's a brilliant observation and thank you for reminding us!

 

M

 

 

So this is what I was looking at early last week.  I was watching for a potential close near the high of the week on Friday.  Thursday evening I became pretty convinced Friday would close near the high.  So Friday morning I bought a couple of momentum stocks, about 25% invested in the trading account.  I did not buy any index stuff.  I doubt we will see much in the way of shakeouts on this move up, considering we just witnessed probably the biggest in stock market history.  There is a very good chance we breakout then reverse at some point before the end of December, as a few folks here have pointed out.  My confidence drops considerably if we give up much of Friday.   

 

Futures appear to have rejected 3700.

 

This has allowed me to improve my position short average, as per my plan 

 

jum the creek, or do we have the weeks high today ? 


I'm not sure what my future holds... But I know who holds it.

#28 sixpack

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Posted 07 December 2020 - 09:04 AM

For a solid breakout we should close a decent handle up Friday on a weekly basis.  The high could come any day.  There are some very toppy signs as Tim pointed out with the SOX.  The DJIA is lagging iMO and should catch up some here or we could easily see the 28k level real soon, which does not look bullish in the shorter time frames.  My bias is still up.  



#29 12SPX

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Posted 07 December 2020 - 09:19 AM

 

epicenter of wave 3 up doesnt seem to be on anybodies radar around here cept mine.......why is that?

 

Perhaps if it was more clearly defined, rather than a decades-long slogan?

 

hahahalighten.gif



#30 sixpack

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Posted 07 December 2020 - 09:56 AM

Good one! Thats the market. Sold half my position this morning. Solid 20% gain IPV. Still holding another stock that moves more with the market. I think for future reference I will stick with posting any index trades I make. I like the short pops for momentum stocks and it happens way too fast to post in and outs etc. And in support of Don we could be in epicenter of wave three. Im not sure where it all started.