18 replies to this topic

[12SPX]

Lots of folks are talking Santa Claus rally.  I got bad news for them.  Santa got arrested for breaking covid rules by hanging out with too many elves and not wearing his mask.  He's doing 2 to 4 in the big house.  Don't tell the kids.  Just say Cuomo et al cancelled Christmas.  Bah humbug to all and to all a dark night. 

 

Disregard,

Douglas

Haha funny.  I agree I keep thinking about the Christmas eve sell off.  Market is so overbought, bullish, extreme option sentiment, to far above 200 day, at the least think its gonna be a struggle.  Think the only thing holding it together is the quad option expiration this Friday but even there the upside is limited! 

[salam]

 

Lots of folks are talking Santa Claus rally.  I got bad news for them.  Santa got arrested for breaking covid rules by hanging out with too many elves and not wearing his mask.  He's doing 2 to 4 in the big house.  Don't tell the kids.  Just say Cuomo et al cancelled Christmas.  Bah humbug to all and to all a dark night. 

 

Disregard,

Douglas

Haha funny.  I agree I keep thinking about the Christmas eve sell off.  Market is so overbought, bullish, extreme option sentiment, to far above 200 day, at the least think its gonna be a struggle.  Think the only thing holding it together is the quad option expiration this Friday but even there the upside is limited! 

 

I’m leaning towards a blow off expiration 

 

xmas eve correction, then end the year on a high....

[12SPX]

I think max up from here is about 1.5%, I'd be surprised if we get more...

[Douglas]

Ho! Ho! Holy Guacamole! Santa appears to have made a prison break and is charging up Wall Street as I type.  I thought they had that crazy red suited old fart locked up for the holidays!  The rally is right in the risk window where it belongs, but this is a wide risk window with tomorrow part of the package.  Looks like it might be up to the FED to keep Santa's money sled moving up the road tomorrow lead by that banker with the big red balance sheet, Jerome. 

 

Regards,

Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 15 December 2020 - 01:25 PM.

[12SPX]

Sorry btw what I mean is maybe +1.5% higher for this expiration cycle but I'll be surprised.

[salam]

I’m Fully Short.

 

...just as Bitcoin hits its ATH

 

expecting some pain....

Edited by salam, 16 December 2020 - 01:18 PM.

[12SPX]

Shoulda followed you on that one salam nice trade, do have my bitcoin short working out though lol! 

[Douglas]

You guys are brave to fight the FED.  Today Jerome said more of everything and for longer until stock owners are all as rich as Croesus and everyone else can just eat cake, at least as long as they have it at the food bank.  Also the next slug of "free" money from Congress announcement is imminent.

 

I've had to redraw that blasted rising wedge again because it just won't break up or down.  As long as the volume keeps falling and the trading range keeps narrowing, I guess the wedge pattern has some hope of working out.  Right now the DJIA is heading back towards the top trend line.  If my risk window is to amount to more than a hill of beans, the DJIA needs to head south tomorrow.  Otherwise the risk window is a dud.   

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

[12SPX]

The Fed never changes it tune and I've noticed it seems to take a while to react to it.  There is 30 billion in POMO this week most of it on Friday, hmmmmm expiration interesting lol!!!