18 replies to this topic

[Douglas]

According to preliminary calculations in my risk summation system, the highest risk window for a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA this week is most likely Tuesday December 15th through Wednesday December 16th.  Next week there appear to be two risk windows, one on Monday December 21st and a second at the end of trading week on Thursday December the 24th.

 

Last week's Wednesday the 9th risk window tagged the high for the week and what looked like a decent top, but futures action this morning is starting to make it look like it might have been a very short term top.  We'll have to see how the DJIA behaves as the day unfolds.

 

A trend line way of looking at the daily close of the DJIA since the March low is shown below.  Note the little rising wedge currently under development which has been a real pain these last several days.  Note too that its focus and that of the larger triangle both appear to form in the next few days possibly pointing to a turn (or acceleration as Don pointed out) of some importance, or not, given my luck lately.  Your friend the trend is currently clearly heading up.

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 14 December 2020 - 02:02 AM.

[slupert]

I don't mean to be critical of your work, as I always enjoy reading your posts, but I've found it much better to use the Nq's and the ES, it for predictive values, last week you were talking about the rising wedge in DIA, if you look at the ES you will see it broke the rising wedge on Wednesday as did NQ's, its much clearer in futes. The important thing is there was no follow through, so a new chart pattern is developing, or maybe no discernable pattern Lok at 4hr charts and you will see how Friday they toouched middle bb (20) and rose like clockwork, also and maybe most important it is above the adaptive ma. (no noise) (JMHO)

[salam]

Thank you.

 

the Dow is the easiest index to manipulate.

 

keeping it above 30k as long as possible, allows maximum distribution time, and transfer from the  strong to the weak.

 

my hope today is we gap and crap. But, with experience, hope has rarely made me money With Trading!

 

the trend remains up, and futures have recaptured both 5 and 10dma, with 3675 once again providing temporary support.

 

so, with this in mind, I will scalp long above and short below 3675.

 

a retest of ATH into expiration is what I expect, not what I hope. 

[LMF]

The DJIA trend line in my work is even more significant, log scale connecting the 2000 high and early 2018 high. That TL appears to go back to the 1965 peak if you can find the data on it. I just go from 2000. The early high 2020 tried to punch thru it......with a massive failure to follow. Now trying again.

[Douglas]

Slupert, I don't trade futures anymore (part of my misspent youth that I've left behind).  Nowadays I'm more of an ETF kind of guy. Just for grins the NASDAQ 100 future's wedge to the left below still hasn't broken, and the S&P 500 future's wedge to the right is still in play.

 

 

Salam, given Yellen is ascending the Treasury throne ready to spit out bonds like confetti and her partner in crime, Powell at the FED, is still ready to buy any and all paper, bears are definitely sailing up wind.  As I see it, the only hope short term for those with a bearish bent is if Biden and company go full on tree hugger right out of the gate and frighten business interests.   Even that might not be enough if the aforementioned money printing duo go full throttle.  Speaking of my misspent youth, this whole mess reminds me of some great parties that I attended in the good ole days.  I remember having so much fun that I only headed out the door when I heard sirens in the distance coming to break it up.  I just hope I hear the sirens before this market party crashes.

 

LMF, take a look at the really long trend line that Raj posted at timeandcycles.blogspot.com .  He says "put a fork in it", presumably because it's done (for).

 

Regards,

Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 14 December 2020 - 10:51 AM.

[gm_general]

We are in Bizarro World now - Dow leads in momentum and order to respond to direction seems to be

 

Dow

SPX

Russell

NDX

NAS

 

NAS holders now slowest on the uptake. How did this happen?

Edited by gm_general, 14 December 2020 - 02:46 PM.

[Douglas]

Lots of folks are talking Santa Claus rally.  I got bad news for them.  Santa got arrested for breaking covid rules by hanging out with too many elves and not wearing his mask.  He's doing 2 to 4 in the big house.  Don't tell the kids.  Just say Cuomo et al cancelled Christmas.  Bah humbug to all and to all a dark night. 

 

Disregard,

Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 14 December 2020 - 06:02 PM.

[salam]

Lots of folks are talking Santa Claus rally.  I got bad news for them.  Santa got arrested for breaking covid rules by hanging out with too many elves and not wearing his mask.  He's doing 2 to 4 in the big house.  Don't tell the kids.  Just say Cuomo et al cancelled Christmas.  Bah humbug to all and to all a dark night. 

 

Disregard,

Douglas

Well well well! 

 

‘my hope today is we gap and crap. But, with experience, hope has rarely made me money’

 

so we gapped and crapped and closed below the 5/10dma again. Wedges are tough to trade. 
 

santa definitely is a Covid super spreader.

 

im now even more interested in the triple witching settlement this week 

 

 

[Douglas]

Salam, don't forget about FED Wednesday when a real Santa Claus spreads sled loads of good cheer to those asset rich deserving folks funded by shafting all the awful poor, retired and savers with a 2% planned salary, pension and savings debasement.  Ho! Ho! Ho!  

 

Regards,

Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 15 December 2020 - 05:52 AM.

[salam]

3775-80 remains my current pivot level. 
 

We are hitting the ceiling again. Will the bulls retake 3780 on a closing basis?