29 replies to this topic

[tsharp]

SPX WEEKLY ANDREW'S FORK UPDATE...

With yesterday's closed just above the Wave-2 150% channel UTL, I thought perhaps the upward continuation signal was made, though warned that it could be a fake-out, and needed to continue upward to prove itself...

The SPX weekly chart with my Andrew's Fork setup is in about the same boat, with the price closing the week essentially at the confluence of the orange and blue tines, giving the same non-signal as the Wave-2 channel chart for the week...

A pretty decent cycle guy I hear from now and then has called for a cycle high for yesterday or today, and my work needs Monday to continue upward, or a reversal to short would occur... watching.

 

 

[sixpack]

I keep thinking this thing is close to some sort of top.  But the stocks I'm buying keep jumping up over 20% in a day.  Nuts!  So reminiscent of 2000 and 2001.  At this point, I see any top as short term.  Too many bullish setups in individual stocks to ignore.  Staying nimble, just in case, and hedging here and there.       

[tsharp]

SPX DAILY HURST PROJECTIONS & CYCLES UPDATES

After fulfilling the Hurst nominal 40-day upward projection on Thursday, the SPX dropped down below the nominal 20-day FLD on Friday, before recovering back above it into the close...

At this point, there aren't any upward projections remaining on the 20-day/40-day chart, and only the nominal 40-week upward projection from 6.3.20 in the ~4008 range, remaining on the other chart I publish, though if a wave-b:Y:2 top is complete here, a Monday close below ~3702 would generate a downward projection...

 

 

 

This second chart is the SPX daily with my take on the smaller nominal Hurst cycles, showing the next nominal cycle peak is the 20-week inflection date, on or about 01.06.21, though there are two other cycle peaks, the 18-month and 54-month due in April 2021, which could continue helping the SPX move higher, or at least not let it fall as far in a decline... watching.

 

 

 

[sixpack]

I see it.  I saw this yesterday and the late day push higher stopped me out of a short on the RUT.  Very extended.  Odds definitely favor a drop into some sort of upper level consolidation, sooner rather than later.  But, longer term I see higher prices.  So, I'm playing both sides for now.  Long stocks, hedging with shorts on the indices.  Buying small positions at support levels and buying more on the retests of the breakouts. Taking profits when things get a little crazy, usually three big up days in sequence.  Came up with this game plan years ago.  Works pretty good for me.  

 

Thanks for sharing your analysis here.  Gives me pause and reminds me to proceed with caution.  

[tsharp]

SPX MONTHLY CHART UPDATE

It's charts like this that make me cautiously bullish, though a bit wary that the SPX is finishing up an IT top...

Note the momentum indicator line is presently .19-points below the previous swing high closing point for this bull market cycle rally that happened back in November 2013...

With about half the month to go, if the SPX elects to push upward into year's end, the momentum indicator line will also push upward and then there will no longer be any negative divergence of momentum versus price on this chart, but the new momentum highs will confirm the new price highs - this is a critical juncture taking place this month... watching.

 

 

[tradesurfer]

Stimulus my [bleeep].

 

Buy the rumor and sell the news......

 

FDA approval on vaccines and watered down stimulus annoucement... the mother of all buy the rumor and SELL the news...

[tsharp]

The SPX is at the 2.382 Fib extension of the WAVE-THREE (2000) high, AND the Wave-2 150% channel UTL... with the SOX and NBI also at notable Fib extensions... so IMHO some caution would be suitable for this price juncture...

 

 

 

 

[tradesurfer]

How convenient.... this whole 2020 has been such a distraction... and now it looks like BREXIT, NOT the bug, is what is going to sink the world economy....

[sixpack]

Yeah the SOX and RUT are both very extended, and they can keep going that way for awhile.  Or not.  I do wonder how significant the top will be a this point.  My gut tells me we need more wide spread participation to form a significant top.  I don't why, but the DJIA looks to be key.  Things aren't lined up very well here.  The whole thing looks very similar to 1963 to 1965, with one big exception the Dow took almost three years to basically double after the shakeout and the RUT and SOX have done it in 9 months.  Looks like a reversal high in December of 65.  So thinking out loud here, I believe the Dow needs to move much higher before a significant top is made.  The SOX and the RUT may have to cool their jets here for a bit.  Be on the lookout for a decent drop before the end of December with these two, and then maybe some short consolidation.  I plan to keep buying stocks and buying TZA here and there as a hedge.  My longer term stuff I'm 95% cash and watching.  

[flyers&divers]

Friday around 3 pm ET MSFT announced that they are going to make some of their own chips!

This have lead to a late selloff and the biggest red volume candle in months on the daily chart of MU and some others. This indeed may lead to a cooling off of some chip stocks that are very extended from their averages.

 

I would not normally notice something like this but just an hour before that announcement a young hotshot friend whose knowledge is limited to what he gained from trading on Robin Hood asked me if I thought that MU could run. I gave him seven reasons it could but more likely it won't. I also warned him that in some years Wall Street is making an effort to keep prices up until the last hour of trading of the year to secure their bonuses but they are not as eager to buy in the first days of the new year and at some point pension contributions start rolling in.

 

F&D