64 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

From BARRONS, see post below this one

WILL add to current 30 SPY PUTS on rallies.... holding 1 Es hedge long. Trading lightly for rest of 2020 unless market explodes... up or down.
That RESILIENT VIX must collapse if there is to be a big decline; ditto for VXX, and UVXY.
Will buy UVXY in Risk portfolio

Edited by dTraderB, 19 December 2020 - 11:04 AM.

[dTraderB]

Article:

The juxtaposition of the dual records is so glaring that it cannot avoid mention: The major U.S. stock market averages have attained record highs at the same time that Covid-19 cases and deaths in America have hit new peaks.

Financial markets, of course, focus on the future rather than the present, and they see vastly better days ahead in 2021, especially now that the pandemics end is in sight. One vaccine began to be administered this past week and, as I write, a second appears headed for approval shortly, bringing more hope for an end to the pandemic by 2021s second half. But they cant immediately stop the rising toll that threatens to outstrip the capacity of many hospitals in the U.S. to treat coronavirus patients.


After this annus horribilis, its almost impossible not to expect a better year ahead. Strategists forecast equity returns around 10% for 2021, as our annual survey of predictions indicates. In most years, however, the median call is for such returns, given that few seers will stray very far from the consensus. As John Maynard Keynes observed, Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally.

Predictions of further advances from the fresh peaks set this past week in the major indexesthe Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite, plus the previously lagging Russell 2000 index of smaller-capitalization stocksspeaks of clear optimism for 2021. Especially given how far these indexes have come from their lows of last March, from a gain of 63% for the Dow to 86% for the tech-heavy Nasdaq to over 99% for the Russell 2000.

Yet in a pithy Morning Porridge daily note, Bill Blain, a banker at Shard Capital in London, offers this take on the obligatory forecasts: Basically, the message is: To make returns next year, just join the never-ending stock-market upside. While rates will remain low in the long term, money flowing into stocks will ensure that they trade up on ever higher multiples. To generate returns, I have to take increasing riskthat feels like a massive trap!

https://www.barrons....own-wall-street

[dTraderB]

"The passage of time also indicates monetary stimulus may be more important to markets than fiscal aid. The stimulus checks, extra unemployment benefits, and PPP loans mostly ended over the summer and fall, but stocks kept climbing. This suggests that government spending, while it was a lot, had a smaller impact on the stock market.

But regardless of the cause, this market is certainly at the upper end of fair value, if not overvalued, no matter what fundamental or historical comparison you want to make. Its clear in this Doug Kass table I showed you last week.


Source: Doug Kass

To buy now, you must either convince yourself this is wrong, or find some reason to argue its different this time. That is rarely the case. To see why, we are going to look at some of the above data in detail, starting with some charts from Dave Rosenbergs magnificent monthly chartbook.

The S&P 500 price-to-operating earnings ratio is back where it was in the early 2000s bull market and well above its peak in the financial crisis."

https://www.mauldine...ck-market-party

[dTraderB]

I will also buy XLF and a few bank stockd but not now


Dougie Kass (@DougKass) tweeted at 7:18 pm on Fri, Dec 18, 2020:
@realmoney

Dec 18, 2020 | 06:09 PM EST DOUG KASS
Taking Off Some From Bank Holdings in the After Hours
* The share repurchase news may mark a near-term top in the banking sector

For the first time in almost a year, I am scaling back some of my bank stock holdings now -- in
(https://twitter.com/...9720701953?s=03)

[dTraderB]

2000 DOT COM EUPHORIA

Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) tweeted at 8:10 am on Sat, Dec 19, 2020:
Citi Panic/Euphoria https://t.co/bMtYqxfr9t
(https://twitter.com/...2026846208?s=03)

[dTraderB]

INSIDERS heading for the exits...

Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) tweeted at 8:10 am on Sat, Dec 19, 2020:
Insiders. https://t.co/U00P7MU2KU
(https://twitter.com/...1253840898?s=03)

[dTraderB]

The SKEW...


Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) tweeted at 8:10 am on Sat, Dec 19, 2020:
What I know about SKEW (in this case, Naz SKEW) could fit on the head of a pin but that move in December is a wow. Would appreciate an education if anyone out there cares to share. https://t.co/qUKqKbX36T
(https://twitter.com/...7969893376?s=03)

[dTraderB]

And this.... I could risk a few Ks on TESLA PUTS or spreads, but got to wait a bit more:


Callie Cox (@callieabost) tweeted at 4:17 pm on Fri, Dec 18, 2020:
On the subject of Tesla, let's talk about one of the biggest S&P 500 inclusion busts of all time: Yahoo $YHOO.

https://t.co/QNlh3dNPnd
(https://twitter.com/...6927193088?s=03)

[dTraderB]

Adding an extra lot to NQ LONG daytrades to partially hedge this drop.... that could soon reverse up

[12SPX]

Well that was fun to wake up to, knew that pop on Friday wasn;t going to hold, everything to bullish, took profits on my short from 3719 at 3639, nice 80 point gain!!  will shory higher unless we test those lower then maybe long