Member
Posted 22 December 2020 - 06:20 AM
The conjunction of the parallel trend lines in the SPY weekly plot below from major lows since the 2009 low and the trend line under the lows since the early 2018 top appear to roughly point to important bottoms at the green stars. The next star in the series is sometime in 4Q2021. Am I being fooled by the lovely symmetry of this?
Regards,
Douglas
Member
Posted 23 December 2020 - 01:40 PM
Well, I got no responses to the above long term chart. 4Q21 is an awfully long time away. How about the short term chart of DIA below. The same technique projects a low in the first few days of February, not that far away. Any takers?
Regards,
Douglas
Member
Posted 24 December 2020 - 05:50 AM
Still no responses. Ya'll are a tough crowd. I thought a relatively short term daily example might elicit some comments. Either you got me on ignore, or you really are all just Robinhood day traders. So, to satisfy your penchant for the very short term, the hourly chart example below is my last attempt at getting a rise out of you guys on this subject. The parallel lines technique says the US dollar should turn down today, BUT the triangle shows there is risk in both directions. A failure of the intersecting parallel lines technique could very well produce an acceleration up. Uncertainty, it's still why I'm driving a Peugeot and not a Ferrari. The holy grail's out there somewhere. I just know it.
Regards,
Douglas
Member
Posted 24 December 2020 - 09:47 AM
Merry Christmas!! Looks like its gonna be a quiet day. The thing about lines is you can always adjust them. It's great how they look,,,so correct hitting them perfectly,,,,, however that's just because people line them up from in the past. I'd love to see someone put a line up and then follow it out for an hour, week, month, years and update it every week to see how the market actually moved along it. I do agree about the pullback as the market is at extreme valuation levels, super bullish sentiment, extreme bullish option sentiment etc etc etc plus the fact that the Heineken virus will likely hit in late January, Biden Mr. doom and gloom said just yesterday there are more "dark days" ahead, I miss Trumps positiveness already and I'm Canadian, everyone hates him up here lol!!
Member
Posted 24 December 2020 - 12:01 PM
12SPX, I'll definitely follow up on whether the USD pattern works or not since the line intersection on the USD ends today. No long wait to see if I'll need to get out the pie pan to eat crow. Mark won't let us edit posts, so I can't fudge the lines later to make it look like I guessed correctly. So far today the dollar has just been creeping up slowing, so no clear sign yet if the intersecting parallel lines or the triangle will work out. I'll make sure by end of day Monday the 28th to post regarding my prognostication on the currency. Hopefully if the bug doesn't get me, I'll also be around in February to follow up on the DIA post above that one too. 4Q 2021 for the first post is a stretch given how old and cantankerous I am, but maybe that one as well. The most important rule of predicting is to remember that if you can't do it well, at least do it frequently. The second most important rule is to spend more time analysing your failures than bragging about your successes.
The non-permanency of lines is the biggest problem that I have with Elliott Wave. The first rule of Elliott Wave is to never do your counts in ink cause sure as night turns to day they'll have to be changed. Every danged Elliott Wave practitioner has a alternate count in his back pocket ready to whip out in the likelihood that the primary count goes tits up. The lines in the parallel trend line intersection technique have fixed end points so they can't be moved, so it either works or it doesn't.
Regarding Canadians, I can't imagine them hating anyone. They are some of the nicest people that I've ever had the privilege to know. I think being nice is actually part of their zeitgeist. I spent a good amount of time in my wayward youth drinking my way through Calgary and Toronto, and I don't ever remember a rude, judgemental soul.
Merry Christmas,
Douglas
Member
Posted 24 December 2020 - 12:39 PM
Not anymore, they hate Trump with a passion as they only watch CNN and I've actually lost a couple of friends because I dont follow along, its actually terrible! They focus more on Trump then our absolute idiot Trudeau, its brutal!
