More signs of a #speculative #mania show up in a host of new companies that are priced well out of reach of underlying fundamentals. https://realinvestmentadvice.com/shades-of-1999-as-market-mania-returns-in-2020/
Bullish momentum, ATH, frothing, fizzling, beware of the big drop ahead
Started by
dTraderB
, Dec 28 2020 06:30 AM
90 replies to this topic
#32
dTraderB
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Posted 29 December 2020 - 06:26 AM
Signs of a #speculative #mania are fairly evident. From IPO's, #retail #trading growth, and #SPACs https://realinvestmentadvice.com/shades-of-1999-as-market-mania-returns-in-2020/
#33
dTraderB
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Posted 29 December 2020 - 06:27 AM
5.8% GDP ??? then SPX 5K !
Goldman Sachs currently expects full-year 2021 GDP growth (nominal) to come in at 5.8%. Such high annual growth rates have been a rarity since 1990 when #debtlevels were much lower than today.
#34
dTraderB
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Posted 29 December 2020 - 06:28 AM
Recently
made some interesting points related to not underestimating #liquidity. - Fed is more sensitive to financial conditions. - $5 T more in liquidity coming - Not a good time to be short #equities. https://realinvestmentadvice.com/shades-of-1999-as-market-mania-returns-in-2020/
#36
dTraderB
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Posted 29 December 2020 - 06:32 AM
MysteryBroker agrees with my Jan FF:
The #MysteryBroker continues to expect a sharp, brief market correction in January. But value/cyclical stocks can still do fine – for years even – as happened after tech peaked in 2000...
#37
dTraderB
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Posted 29 December 2020 - 06:35 AM
Will be adding QQQ PUTS today on any rally, I have only 2 .... started the position yesterday but could not be such a contrarian to buy PUTS when the bulls are on a rampage!
The #MysteryBroker says unequivocally that most of tech is in a bubble and near a peak. He notes that a technology or Internet bubble happens every 15-20 years (1968, 1983, 2000, 2020)...
The #MysteryBroker cites much of what we’re all looking at: wild speculative momentum in flimsy EV businesses, the mad rush into the IPO ETF, the SPAC cash grab, credulous and dramatic stock surges responding to analyst hype and, yes, the bitcoin quote graphic on CNBC...
The #MysteryBroker says we’ve “entered the last hurrah for growth and speculative stocks.” It will pressure overall market but not necessarily drive across-the-board losses...
Feel free to write off #MysteryBroker’s call of a tech bubble. He’s been in the business since the mid-‘80s. Some see long experience as an advantage and others who figure it’s an impediment to embracing the future. This divide also existed in ’68, ’83, ’00.
#38
12SPX
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Posted 29 December 2020 - 08:58 AM
I love all this bullishness, bullish sentiment, bullish p/e ratios, well not really, hit a 10-year high yesterday, bullishness stimulus etc etc etc. Anyhow with the increased move up overnight it raised my average short to 3737. We'll see how that goes but until I see a decent oversold indication I far prefer to be short then long. I do know it will only take one teeny little surprise and down she'll go at least a little lol!
#39
12SPX
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Posted 29 December 2020 - 09:57 AM
Interesting that big open was sold lol! Profit stop 3735 and will sell right above!
#40
redfoliage2
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Posted 29 December 2020 - 10:10 AM
VIX is flashing a red flag. It looks there will be a one-day hard selling just before the year ends ...............
Edited by redfoliage2, 29 December 2020 - 10:11 AM.
