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OT: One Covid death really got to me...


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#41 Rogerdodger

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Posted 03 February 2021 - 11:28 AM

Here's the "truth and humility" that we need more of  in science and medicine, rather than the current dogmatic arrogance:

"it may be totally wrong in a week as we learn more"

 

Dr. Stan Schwartz holds a fellowship from the Infectious Diseases Society of America, said the U.K. variant — B.1.1.7 — is more contagious and probably will become the dominant strain where it’s found.

“What we don’t know is whether or not it definitely causes more severe disease,” Schwartz said.

“Everything I’m telling you right now has to be taken in the context of it may be totally wrong in a week as we learn more,” Schwartz said.



#42 claire

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Posted 03 February 2021 - 03:56 PM

Here's the "truth and humility" that we need more of  in science and medicine, rather than the current dogmatic arrogance:

"it may be totally wrong in a week as we learn more"

 

Dr. Stan Schwartz holds a fellowship from the Infectious Diseases Society of America, said the U.K. variant — B.1.1.7 — is more contagious and probably will become the dominant strain where it’s found.

“What we don’t know is whether or not it definitely causes more severe disease,” Schwartz said.

“Everything I’m telling you right now has to be taken in the context of it may be totally wrong in a week as we learn more,” Schwartz said.

 

 

What's your beef?

 

All leading scientists have discussed their conclusions as probabilities based on the best current evidence, which is always subject to change when additional data demands that. That's how science works. New evidence altering prior probabilities should not invite dismissal of all evidence and mockery of science or scientists.

The only people I've read making dogmatic statements are those posting here with references to isolated bits of information supporting their conclusions that the pandemic would disappear, was no worse than the flu, or that it affected only the aged and those with seriously compromised health, or myths about immunity, or posts about miracle treatments that were not properly evaluated such as hydroxychloroquine among others, and conspiracy theories politicizing what should be a public health issue while a horrible pandemic soon will kill half a million Americans.

 

None of those posting the comments to which I refer have acknowledged that they were horribly wrong nor do they seem to be aware that such comments increase public confusion and lead to a great many more deaths than necessary.



#43 Rogerdodger

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Posted 03 February 2021 - 09:19 PM

The Sun has (a) Corona?

 

There is a glaring hole in the plans to defend against COVID...The weather!

The weather has a bigger impact on COVID spread than social distancing!

 

While droplets of saliva can travel up to 18 feet in just five seconds when unmasked people cough,

Don’t blame people, blame the weather.

 

Science isn’t using all of the science it should be

 

A lot of the blame for COVID-19’s “second wave” has been pointed at people not following safety guidelines put out by health experts and government officials. A new report however, says don’t blame people, blame the weather. Researchers from the University of Nicosia in Cyprus find hot weather and wind have a bigger impact on virus transmission rates than social distancing during a pandemic.

Their study concludes that two outbreaks in one year is a natural phenomenon during a massive outbreak. Temperature, humidity, and wind can help predict when a second wave will peak, which the researchers call “inevitable.”

 

The lack of climate data included in epidemiological models has left a glaring hole in the plans to defend against COVID.

Looking at Paris, New York City, and Rio de Janeiro, scientists discovered they could accurately predict the timing of the second outbreak in each city. Their research suggests two outbreaks per year is a natural weather-dependent phenomenon during any pandemic.

Conclusion: Different hemispheres have different COVID waves.

 

I guess that's why we say the Sun has a Corona...the outermost part of the Sun's atmosphere!


Edited by Rogerdodger, 03 February 2021 - 09:48 PM.


#44 claire

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Posted 04 February 2021 - 12:43 AM

I notice the super bold type stating that Science isn’t using all of the science it should be.  Is this yet another way to bash science? This is a model with a hypothetical premise that may have validity, but zero data is supplied in this article.

 

Certainly, wind, humidity, air pressure, and temperature has an effect on viral transmission, but how could these findings be implemented? A weather report each day with a alert to people to safely distance at least 20 feet today because of high winds? Or stay home because the of the shift in weather on another day? Or loosen seasonal guidelines without attention to the death rate?

 

We can't even get people to wear masks or teach them to have the masks cover their nostrils. And we do alter recommendations based on leading data of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in those States where guidelines are implemented. 

 

Also, for those reading this forum who believe they can outrun the virus, "they note, however, that mask and distancing guidelines should continue to be followed." Also their "previous work showed that droplets of saliva can travel up to 18 feet in just five seconds when unmasked people cough."

 

This model should be investigated further for better understanding of patterns of transmission and the environmental factors which impact transmission all over the world, but this article is more sensational and headline grabbing than informative and with no basis for concluding that weather has a bigger impact on COVID spread than social distancing as stated in the headline.



#45 hhh

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Posted 04 February 2021 - 01:18 AM

Take vitamin D, C, zinc and selenium in adequate quantities and stop worrying about something the immune system can deal with quite well in the vast majority of cases. Look at New Zealand where many foods are vitamin D fortified and it's mandated in nursing homes. Hardly any deaths per capita compared to most of the rest of the world. If health care "professionals" gave a d a m n about people's health, they would be recommending nutrition, not needless lockdowns to destroy small businesses and experimental gene therapies fraudulently presented as "vaccines."


Edited by hhh, 04 February 2021 - 01:19 AM.


#46 Rogerdodger

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Posted 04 February 2021 - 02:06 AM

no basis for concluding that weather has a bigger impact on COVID spread than social distancing

 

Really? Ever heard of flu SEASON? Do you know it's in the fall and winter when virus molecules can stay potent longer?

Additionally, less clothing and longer daylight gives the body more exposure to sunlight which produces more natural vitamin D in the human body.

Scientific evidence suggests that this vitamin improves immunity from virus.

Our doctor recommends supplemental vitamin D for that reason.

In the United States, flu season occurs in the fall and winter. While influenza viruses circulate year-round, most of the time flu activity peaks between December and February, but activity can last as late as May.

 

Often, in science, the real answer is usually far from obvious. Innovation and invention is often done when we look deep below the surface.

The most interesting thing about science is that it’s never finished. Every discovery leads to more questions, new mysteries, to something else that needs explaining. It’s a case of ‘the more we know, the more we know we know nothing at all’.

That humility, as opposed to institutional dogma, leads to great scientific discoveries.


Edited by Rogerdodger, 04 February 2021 - 02:25 AM.


#47 claire

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Posted 04 February 2021 - 10:48 PM

"Really? Ever heard of flu SEASON? Do you know it's in the fall and winter when virus molecules can stay potent longer?

Additionally, less clothing and longer daylight gives the body more exposure to sunlight which produces more natural vitamin D in the human body.

Scientific evidence suggests that this vitamin improves immunity from virus.

Our doctor recommends supplemental vitamin D for that reason.'

 

Rogerdoger

 

Your statements carry assumptions which are not justified. The specious argument that covid will behave like the flu is not a justified conclusion based on evidence. Other similar viruses such as MERS were not seasonal. Those making that assumption about COVID expected that there would be very low rates in countries with hot climates and that it would virtually disappear in the U.S. during this past summer. Remember that? While the curve did flatten in some areas, it took off in others where safety protocols were avoided and has been rampant in countries with humid climates.

 

The studies done with vitamin D has found decreased immunity to covid ONLY for those who were found to be deficient. And supplements did not improve immunity to covid for those who were not deficient. I gave citations to the strongest double-blind studies of this in a prior comment that I won't bother to dig up again.

 

You make blanket statement such as "scientific evidence shows" without any citations to such evidence. You refer to "institutional dogma." Scientists are among the least dogmatic thinkers and those who present findings to peer-reviewed, accredited science journals always present their conclusions in terms of probabilities and direct the reader to other factors not studied that may be impactful or negate their findings. 

 

I think you've been too exposed to sensationalist articles and headline reading which isn't science. I think much more humility needs to be expressed by non-experts who think they know more than they do and waste their time searching for any minor errors in predictions based on the best evidence at the time with "gotcha" to bolster their egos. 


Edited by claire, 04 February 2021 - 10:52 PM.


#48 dougie

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Posted 04 February 2021 - 11:06 PM

 

"Really? Ever heard of flu SEASON? Do you know it's in the fall and winter when virus molecules can stay potent longer?

Additionally, less clothing and longer daylight gives the body more exposure to sunlight which produces more natural vitamin D in the human body.

Scientific evidence suggests that this vitamin improves immunity from virus.

Our doctor recommends supplemental vitamin D for that reason.'

 

Rogerdoger

 

Your statements carry assumptions which are not justified. The specious argument that covid will behave like the flu is not a justified conclusion based on evidence. Other similar viruses such as MERS were not seasonal. Those making that assumption about COVID expected that there would be very low rates in countries with hot climates and that it would virtually disappear in the U.S. during this past summer. Remember that? While the curve did flatten in some areas, it took off in others where safety protocols were avoided and has been rampant in countries with humid climates.

 

The studies done with vitamin D has found decreased immunity to covid ONLY for those who were found to be deficient. And supplements did not improve immunity to covid for those who were not deficient. I gave citations to the strongest double-blind studies of this in a prior comment that I won't bother to dig up again.

 

You make blanket statement such as "scientific evidence shows" without any citations to such evidence. You refer to "institutional dogma." Scientists are among the least dogmatic thinkers and those who present findings to peer-reviewed, accredited science journals always present their conclusions in terms of probabilities and direct the reader to other factors not studied that may be impactful or negate their findings. 

 

I think you've been too exposed to sensationalist articles and headline reading which isn't science. I think much more humility needs to be expressed by non-experts who think they know more than they do and waste their time searching for any minor errors in predictions based on the best evidence at the time with "gotcha" to bolster their egos. 

 

Other similar viruses such as MERS were not seasonal.: not enough cases to say for sure.

Other corona viruses are very clearly seasonal.