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Likely a Top Here


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#21 pdx5

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Posted 10 February 2021 - 12:18 PM

Wish I hadn't been reading this forum last week when there was top calling, or I guess like every week there is top calling lol... but I let it get to me that time and missed out on a bunch of money yet again.  I'm just going to do what I said I was and wait for the Fed to say they are going to ease before I consider being bearish except if a specific company is really asking for it. 

Wise conclusion. Don't fight the FED. No one here is smarter than the FED.

And trend is your friend still works.


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#22 redfoliage2

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Posted 10 February 2021 - 12:28 PM

 

Wish I hadn't been reading this forum last week when there was top calling, or I guess like every week there is top calling lol... but I let it get to me that time and missed out on a bunch of money yet again.  I'm just going to do what I said I was and wait for the Fed to say they are going to ease before I consider being bearish except if a specific company is really asking for it. 

Wise conclusion. Don't fight the FED. No one here is smarter than the FED.

And trend is your friend still works.

 

You think the Fed is doing more easing?  Just look at the prices of T-bonds the Fed is not actively buying.  More likely the Fed is going to say when to stop easing at the next meeting................


Edited by redfoliage2, 10 February 2021 - 12:29 PM.


#23 redfoliage2

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Posted 10 February 2021 - 12:42 PM

BTW, take note from the WWW .................


Edited by redfoliage2, 10 February 2021 - 12:47 PM.


#24 pdx5

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Posted 10 February 2021 - 12:44 PM

 

 

Wish I hadn't been reading this forum last week when there was top calling, or I guess like every week there is top calling lol... but I let it get to me that time and missed out on a bunch of money yet again.  I'm just going to do what I said I was and wait for the Fed to say they are going to ease before I consider being bearish except if a specific company is really asking for it. 

Wise conclusion. Don't fight the FED. No one here is smarter than the FED.

And trend is your friend still works.

 

You think the Fed is doing more easing?  Just look at the prices of T-bonds the Fed is not actively buying.  More likely the Fed is going to say when to stop easing at the next meeting................

 

Political pressure will not allow FED to stop easing. Not until covid-19 is under control. 

I am seriously scared of buying any long term bonds. Too much inflation risk long term. So I am not paying attention.

Stocks are the only game in town right now.

The fact is stimulus spending can not stop under Biden administration any time soon.


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#25 redfoliage2

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Posted 10 February 2021 - 12:49 PM

 

 

 

Wish I hadn't been reading this forum last week when there was top calling, or I guess like every week there is top calling lol... but I let it get to me that time and missed out on a bunch of money yet again.  I'm just going to do what I said I was and wait for the Fed to say they are going to ease before I consider being bearish except if a specific company is really asking for it. 

Wise conclusion. Don't fight the FED. No one here is smarter than the FED.

And trend is your friend still works.

 

You think the Fed is doing more easing?  Just look at the prices of T-bonds the Fed is not actively buying.  More likely the Fed is going to say when to stop easing at the next meeting................

 

Political pressure will not allow FED to stop easing. Not until covid-19 is under control. 

I am seriously scared of buying any long term bonds. Too much inflation risk long term. So I am not paying attention.

Stocks are the only game in town right now.

The fact is stimulus spending can not stop under Biden administration any time soon.

 

I see this is the very last one that has been more than fully priced in.  We have arrived at the place where the Fed liquidity cycle is about to end .................


Edited by redfoliage2, 10 February 2021 - 12:56 PM.


#26 redfoliage2

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Posted 10 February 2021 - 01:42 PM

It's just a shot across the bow - the quick action taking the money and run upon the gap-up this morning accompanied with huge down volumes in the index futures.  It happened even without an obvious event to trigger.  Expect more to come in the near future  ........................


Edited by redfoliage2, 10 February 2021 - 01:51 PM.


#27 redfoliage2

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Posted 11 February 2021 - 09:51 AM

At the end of a run-up and in front of a major resistance I don't see the market got enough momentum left to continue the run.  I see bounces created by nightly monkeys from overnight index futures will be sold in the real stock trading in the cash market ..........


Edited by redfoliage2, 11 February 2021 - 10:00 AM.


#28 redfoliage2

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Posted 11 February 2021 - 11:31 AM

There were doji/spin candlesticks in the last two days on SPX and VIX daily charts as the market has entered the topping state.  Although there have been no big damages in the prices so far,  I see a mean reversion move is pending ................


Edited by redfoliage2, 11 February 2021 - 11:32 AM.


#29 redfoliage2

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Posted 11 February 2021 - 02:37 PM

 This is going to be a round top and the topping process may take another week ..................



#30 redfoliage2

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Posted 11 February 2021 - 03:33 PM

It looks another Doji/spin day.  I'd not be surprised at all if the nightly monkeys try to create another gap up overnight..................


Edited by redfoliage2, 11 February 2021 - 03:36 PM.