7 replies to this topic

[cycletimer]

Haven't posted on this board in the longest time.... FWIW, there was a cycle turn due today (TOP?) and I purchased some March SPX 3750 puts before the close today AND purchased a full position in EDV

 

For this week I am expecting lower equity prices and higher long term treasury prices, hence my positions. 

 

I am no longer an active trader as I am nearing FIRE (early retirement) and my risk tolerance is very low, not like the good 'ol days.  Our own Mark Young probably recalls my former aggressive trading style and I'll never forget his very reliable TUMA (thumb up my arse!) indicator.

 

I do not trade options very often, maybe two trades per year and things have to line up (cycle turns, overbought/oversold technicals,  and my own "gut" which isn't wrong often because it hardly ever signals a trade),  Risk/reward has to be very favorable at the time of the option trade.... That time is now.....

 

CYCLE TURNS:

Feb 8/9th  (TOP???)

Feb 15/16th (LOW???)

 

I am not bearish and I see the case for higher prices into the Spring, following a 5% correction.... could that occur this week?......

 

 

Side note:

I trade the long treasury ETF (EDV) frequently.  I get buy and sell signals and they're very smooth trades and trends....My last signal got me in at 142.70 and I exited at 148.22

 

Today I entered at a price of 140.37 

Edited by cycletimer, 08 February 2021 - 07:40 PM.

[OEXCHAOS]

You have the Twitterati heavily long here, and TSP. Those are not "smart money".

 

Of course, it has to stop going up before it can go down (in the words of our Dear Departed Nick Proffit).

[tsharp]

Maybe... two days getting stuck at the gold fork tine.

 

 

[Rogerdodger]

Good hear from you again Cycletimer.

(Where is IronCross and Mr. Dev? Actually IC moved to Tulsa and Mr Dev left!!!)

 

Four trading days ago on Feb 2nd, I noted that  "Calendar wise we are nearing a top".
Of course I was referring to Gamestop...LOL!
Since then, the SPX has moved up a tad bit while crude and Bitcoin have done a "BIT" better' "fueling" the market more.

 

But...
In a "free money" bull market, a correction and top may just be a sideways move.

 

T-Theory observed:

"The mid-Keltner support worked just the way a support level is supposed to in a bullish environment. That bullish move is still scheduled to last until the end of April. While the Volume Oscillator should show a lower high than it does at this moment (as it will be adjusted Monday by Stockcharts), if Friday’s reading remains above 46, there is a short term T through February 17. The left side begins January 14, with a midpoint February 1, lasting 17 days.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 09 February 2021 - 06:45 PM.

[q4wer]

Mr. Dev  is on twitter  , actively posting there.  search for him

[cycletimer]

I was obviously EARLY. I’ll need to roll my put options as they expire on March 1st. I’ll do this tomorrow and buy some a few weeks out. FWIW, I am still extremely confident in this trade and the top call.

[GDA]

Market breadth is bottoming out, and this has the potential to push the SPX much higher.

[tsharp]

Some of you chided with me about a year ago over what an expanding fractal meant; expandos are continuation patterns, as seen again in the double zig-zag pattern Wave-2 - which means a wave-3 is in its early stages, and we will more than likely see surprises to the upside: