8 replies to this topic

[RadioHead]

This has been a strong uptrend, but those minor pull backs that last anywhere from 3 hours to 3 days don't scare anyone anymore.

 

Bears have been making good arguments. As always, they are logical and wrong.

 

I think we have a perfect combination for a parabolic advance:

 

Valuations -- Extremely expensive (98 percentile of all readings over the last 140 years). That allows bears to speak and everyone else to buy.

 

Sentiment -- Majority is very bullish. More people are buying. Contrarian analysis only works at picking bottoms, and once a generation at picking a top.

 

Internals -- Strong.

 

Money Supply -- Historic levels. Too much money out there and more coming.

 

Technicals -- clear uptrend.

 

New Traders -- a lot of new young traders just came in to the market. It is reminiscent of mid 90s when the internet brought millions of new traders and they send everything to the stratosphere. 

 

Economy -- Pretty bad, which is good for the market. The best rallies occur when people are suffering.

 

Time for this uptrend to go faster, because those ST pull backs are simply annoying.

 

 

 

 

 

[pdx5]

Those ST pullbacks have been the best buying the dip opportunities in a life time. 60% gain in less than a year in SP500 index funds?

I do not remember any such move in a large cap index fund since I began trading in 1963.

[redfoliage2]

60% per year? Unsustainable .................

[RadioHead]

If you are able to buy the pullbacks, it means you are never 100% invested. Right? 

 

You are either all the way long, which means you don't have money to buy more; or you are trading short-term movements, which means you are not participating in this great rally?

 

What is it?

 

60% a year? Is this a board for beginners? 60% means you still have to keep your day job.

[brucekeller]

I didn't realize WSB / Reddit had made it over here from the FOMO. Diamond Hands, Radio!

[RadioHead]

ONO

[fib_1618]

I think we have a perfect combination for a parabolic advance:

 

Time for this uptrend to go faster, because those ST pull backs are simply annoying.

 

With the NASDAQ Composite Index having now doubled in value since the March 23rd lows, we're not likely to get any "faster" than that.

 

For a bit more historical context, seems we've been in a parabolic rise for some time now...as some would say, "To the Moon"!

 

Fib

 

Quarterly Basis:

 

 

[pdx5]

If you are able to buy the pullbacks, it means you are never 100% invested. Right? 

 

You are either all the way long, which means you don't have money to buy more; or you are trading short-term movements, which means you are not participating in this great rally?

 

What is it?

 

60% a year? Is this a board for beginners? 60% means you still have to keep your day job.

I was 100% in high yield bonds and money market funds in March 2020. When I saw the huge market crash in March 2020, bigger crash than since 2009 perhaps in terms of speed and magnitude, at age 79 I made a decision to switch from bonds & MM funds to SP500 index funds. The high yield stuff had also declined but not anywhere near the stocks. My switchover was complete by end of April. Then in fall of 2020, I am looking at these ridiculous capital gains in my accounts, and not to get greedy, sold all my stock holdings in tax deferred accounts. But kept the stock funds in my taxable accounts. As soon as the one year holding period is past, to pay tax in long term brackets, I intend to get out 100%. I don't need more profits. I would need to live to  age 150 before I run out of my current retirement funds. Will stay in mm funds until another crash arrives. My kids are so darn lucky. I never inherited a dime from my parents. 

Edited by pdx5, 15 February 2021 - 10:39 AM.

[dwnowhere1]

pdx5:   Rather than leave the money to the kids so they can fight over it,

Why Not do something useful like give it all away -- National Cancer Institute  good choice --  or  some other charity or charities to solve some of mankinds ills.

Edited by dwnowhere1, 16 February 2021 - 10:38 AM.