56 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

This long weekend is most welcome. This is good, not all factual, but actually includes the essential reasons for this rally:

"...And the best part, for equities that is, theres no inflation So these central planners can do whatever the {bleeeep} they want. It doesnt matter how irresponsible they are. The bill will come eventually. 3 months maybe, 6 months definitely. But until it does, the market will not price in an end to these extravagant and wasteful government policies. So dont fight them or at least, to paraphrase William Prescott, dont short till you see the whites of inflations eyes.

The best part is that you will probably find a reason to discard everything Ive said. After all Im young and foolish, and the market is overvalued, and the p/c ratio is super low and these are all true. Im not denying that. I am however noting that liquidity and sentiment will trump these facts. So many months from now if the market does in fact hit all time highs I want you to ask yourself a simple question"

https://klendathucap...or-old-men/amp/

[dTraderB]

Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) tweeted at 2:48 pm on Sat, Feb 13, 2021:
Have a great weekend! Decision week now for #ES_F. We closed *right* at major resistance of a megaphone pattern

My plan: This is cool off zone but If bears cant move below 3915, then it sets up a big breakout taking this into meltup mode to 3970, 4020, & 4100. Details below $SPX https://t.co/4dYEi56nTg
(https://twitter.com/...1958571015?s=03)

[dTraderB]

ADAM:
Note: As usual price prefers to test through lvls and then reverse - for bears this week would be watching for any fake breakout setups (one of my favorite/core setups). A break above 3935 to 3970 then fail back below 3935 would count for example, likely triggering a hard reversal

[dTraderB]

Tic Toc (@TicTocTick) tweeted at 8:13 pm on Sun, Feb 14, 2021:
Folks, this weeks S&P500 roadmap:

1. Above 3886-3902, S&P500 4000 is tradeable. Now 3940.

2. Below 3886, 3845 may trade.

3. A close below 3845 will be an adverse event opening doors to 3662.

Other important orderflow levels will be published in room.

#ES_F $SPX $NDX $SPY
(https://twitter.com/...2810791940?s=03)

[dTraderB]

"Pent up demand"

Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) tweeted at 6:24 am on Mon, Feb 15, 2021:

MS projects US GDP to grow by 6.5%YoY in 2021, 5%YoY in 2022, meaning US GDP will rise above pre-Covid19 path after 3Q21 & will be higher in 2022 than expected in absence of pandemic. Thats remarkable when you consider that in post-GFC US econ never returned to pre-recession path

https://t.co/6PEa3WKKne
(https://twitter.com/...7105495041?s=03)

[dTraderB]

".....As the VIX falls and the market grows more and more complacent, volatility shuts down and that's typically a very bad thing for those who are bearish. A boring market becomes a very bullish market.

I decided to go back over the past 10 years, during an overall bullish market environment, to see the history of short-term spikes in the VIX above 30 with subsequent drops back below 20. What is the effect of shrinking pessimism and fear? What I found - in every case thus far - is that the VIX falling below 20, after a bout of fear, results in significantly higher prices one month later. It's happened 7 times prior to Friday and here are the results:


https://stockcharts....-below-373.html

[dTraderB]

Letter from Mr Market

Weighing The Week Ahead: A Letter From Mr. Market

https://seekingalpha...-from-mr-market

[dTraderB]

Short but packed week:

https://www.fxstreet...onomic-calendar

[dTraderB]

"this issue of Speculative Mania Continues As It Goes Up In Smoke.'

Market Review And Update
Speculative Mania Continues
Two Important Threats
Portfolio Positioning
#MacroView: Why Stimulus Doesnt Lead To Organic Growth
Sector & Market Analysis"


https://realinvestme...smoke-02-12-21/

[dTraderB]

4 profitable days last week but a bad Friday wiped out 3 days of gains. Mainly defensive trading to maintain and build my QQQ PUTS position. Profits on NQ daytrades and NQ hedge on Sunday night, yesterday and this morning but those PUTS losses will erase that green from my weekly balance sheet at current NQ levels. However, markets are extended and I am looking forward to a day or two of big profits in NQ SHORT daytrades and PUTS.
Will continue to build QQQ PUTS position above existing ATH above NQ 14K.

57 QQQ PUTS
1 NQ HEDGE LONG 13672.5