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Not a Market for Old Men: liquidity and sentiment will trump factstes


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#11 12SPX

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Posted 16 February 2021 - 09:29 AM

This long weekend is most welcome. This is good, not all factual, but actually includes the essential reasons for this rally:

"...And the best part, for equities that is, theres no inflation So these central planners can do whatever the {bleeeep} they want. It doesnt matter how irresponsible they are. The bill will come eventually. 3 months maybe, 6 months definitely. But until it does, the market will not price in an end to these extravagant and wasteful government policies. So dont fight them or at least, to paraphrase William Prescott, dont short till you see the whites of inflations eyes.

The best part is that you will probably find a reason to discard everything Ive said. After all Im young and foolish, and the market is overvalued, and the p/c ratio is super low and these are all true. Im not denying that. I am however noting that liquidity and sentiment will trump these facts. So many months from now if the market does in fact hit all time highs I want you to ask yourself a simple question"

https://klendathucap...or-old-men/amp/

I'm an old man so have been around awhile lol!!  No this rally will end badly I think unless we start to flatten out here for a bit, average short now 3860 with that pop over 3950 yesterday lol!  This is the biggest short I've had in a long time but know that's it is way overdone.  I'm going to do a reversal like the chief and say options are now questioning this move although they look bullish, just like the AAII numbers lol.  Held my Feb. 4000 calls over the weekend and they are barely higher this morning, actually seeing a $1.00 profit on my resell so I'll continue to hold them.  Even my sold March 4000 calls are still showing a $15 profit and the March 4100 calls are equal to what I sold them that indicating to much bullishness for out of the money options.  Gonna be an interesting week as were nearing my upper range numbers for this expiration cycle at 3970.  



#12 dTraderB

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Posted 16 February 2021 - 11:09 AM

Nq hedge long 13820
Have to buy 2nd hedge long! Delayed it but must adhere to the OPTIONS SYSTEM.

59 QQQ PUTS
2 NQ HEDGE LONG
5 SQQQ

4 profitable days last week but a bad Friday wiped out 3 days of gains. Mainly defensive trading to maintain and build my QQQ PUTS position. Profits on NQ daytrades and NQ hedge on Sunday night, yesterday and this morning but those PUTS losses will erase that green from my weekly balance sheet at current NQ levels. However, markets are extended and I am looking forward to a day or two of big profits in NQ SHORT daytrades and PUTS.
Will continue to build QQQ PUTS position above existing ATH above NQ 14K.

57 QQQ PUTS
1 NQ HEDGE LONG 13672.5



#13 dTraderB

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Posted 17 February 2021 - 06:04 AM

Profitable Tuesday
57 QQQ PUTS
2 NQ HEDGE LONG
5 SQQQ 10 calls

Nq hedge long 13820
Have to buy 2nd hedge long! Delayed it but must adhere to the OPTIONS SYSTEM.

59 QQQ PUTS
2 NQ HEDGE LONG
5 SQQQ

4 profitable days last week but a bad Friday wiped out 3 days of gains. Mainly defensive trading to maintain and build my QQQ PUTS position. Profits on NQ daytrades and NQ hedge on Sunday night, yesterday and this morning but those PUTS losses will erase that green from my weekly balance sheet at current NQ levels. However, markets are extended and I am looking forward to a day or two of big profits in NQ SHORT daytrades and PUTS.
Will continue to build QQQ PUTS position above existing ATH above NQ 14K.

57 QQQ PUTS
1 NQ HEDGE LONG 13672.5



#14 dTraderB

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Posted 17 February 2021 - 07:54 AM

TIC TOC:
Folks: for Wednesday, orderflow pivot is 3931-3936. Other important levels are 3902, 3944. Now 3926.

#15 dTraderB

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Posted 17 February 2021 - 08:04 AM

Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) tweeted at 4:45 pm on Tue, Feb 16, 2021:
While the daily RSI(5) is very overbought in #ES_F, todays tiny dip totally reset the 4hr RSI(5) back to the same level it was the on Jan 31 low

Suggests this still has fuel for another high - but, *very important 3915 holds, otherwise we start pullback direct to 3875,3830. $SPX
(https://twitter.com/...2845149191?s=03)

#16 dTraderB

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Posted 17 February 2021 - 08:12 AM

https://www.mcoscill...nd_stocks/?s=03

#17 dTraderB

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Posted 17 February 2021 - 08:13 AM

Near the zero line, again
https://www.mcoscill...adth_data/?s=03

#18 dTraderB

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Posted 17 February 2021 - 08:15 AM

HOURLY ES AND NQ looks bullish, unless it breaks HOURLY LOWS last night and yestetday

#19 dTraderB

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Posted 17 February 2021 - 08:44 AM

Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) tweeted at 9:19 am on Wed, Feb 17, 2021:
Cool-off day yesterday in #ES_F. My core support yesterday was 3915 and it was tested twice overnight for a 15 point bounce. Decision time now.

Plan today: 3950 then 3975 in play if 3915-3909 hold. That fails sell begins. 3877 1st support & bounce zone, 3835 below there $SPX
(https://twitter.com/...5643480066?s=03)

#20 dTraderB

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Posted 17 February 2021 - 10:13 AM

Not trimming PUTS position but increasing LONG NQ DAYTRADES position size and holding 2 nq hedge long