BEARS had a great opportunity to take the SPX below 3840 on a weekly CLOSE basis but they failed.
NQ is weaker but still not far away from ATH. I expect a pitched battle but unless Bears can show more strength then SPX 4K before any significant decline. Always an IF or two: what external factor (not a MARKET one) can help the BEARS?
This is another of those YIELD CURVE analysis:
The U.S. Treasury market has seen some stiff selling pressure in recent days, on the heels of stiff selling in recent months. As a result, the benchmark 2-year / 10-year yield curve is the steepest in almost 5 years.
Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing depends upon whom you ask. Bulls will say it's a sign of recovery and good for financials, the bedrock of any sustainable rally. Bears will say it's the first prick in the TINA bubble that will clobber tech stocks, which have been powering most of the gains.
Opinions are a dime a dozen, so let's just objectively look at prior instances and see how things shook out.
There is no definitive date when the Federal Reserve explicitly began targeting the Fed Funds rate but academic literature seems to point to anywhere from 1982 to late 1987. So we'll go from there.
With the yield curve, we'll use a setup and a trigger. The setup is when it drops toward or below 0, with the trigger being when it rises to its current level over 110 basis points.
On a chart, it looks pretty ugly for the S&P 500. The numbers don't look especially great, either.
While the 1991 recovery led to good gains for stocks going forward, the last two clearly did not. Among other assets, factors, and sectors, there was some more consistency, especially one sector in particular.
https://www.sentimen...-3-other-times/